Leonidas Mantzos

Low-CO2 energy pathways and regional air pollution in Europe

Abstract This paper compares three scenarios of energy demand in the European Union until 2010 and analyses their effects on carbon emissions as well as their impacts on the precursor emissions for acidification and ground-level ozone. The analysis links the results of energy model PRIMES with the integrated environmental assessment model RAINS. Important synergies between climate change policies and policies to control regional air pollution have been identified. Mitigation of acidification and ozone according to the current EU strategy will be easier and cheaper if the Kyoto targets for the reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) are to be met. In case when the Kyoto target needs to be achieved by individual EU member countries without trading in CO2 emission rights, the costs of controlling the pollutants contributing to acidification and ground-level ozone can be up to 10% lower than for the baseline scenario which does not assume any climate change policies. Although lower, the effects are also important if trading in carbon emission rights is allowed. These cost savings compensate up to 20% of higher costs of energy supplies in the EU and associated with them welfare losses caused by the necessity to meet the carbon constraint.

Economic Evaluation of Sectoral Emission Reduction Objectives for Climate Change

Publisher Summary This paper summarizes a study that identifies a least-cost allocation of objectives for different sectors and greenhouse gases so that the European Union would meet its Kyoto target of –8% in 2008–2012 compared to 1990 emissions. For the purposes of the study, it was assumed that the EU would comply with its Kyoto target without the “Kyoto mechanisms.” The study concludes that the marginal abatement cost amounts to € 99 42/tCO 2 -eq if each Member State fulfils their Kyoto “burden sharing” target individually. However, the cost would be reduced to € 99 20/tCO 2 -eq if the EU Member States fulfill their Kyoto obligations jointly, allowing to take measures where they are most cost-effective. In this least cost case, the annual compliance cost in 2010 is estimated at € 99 3.7 billion. The compliance cost would be fairly small in most sectors. This approach will fully maintain the environmental integrity of the Kyoto Protocol, while identifying those policies and measures that achieve the Kyoto target in a manner that minimizes the cost. Simply, the intention is to identify a least-cost allocation so that the cost of production of energy and other goods would increase as little as possible.

Kyoto and technology at the European Union: costs of emission reduction under flexibility mechanisms and technology progress

This paper presents the analysis of the consequences of CO2 emission reduction policies, as derived, in a European Union perspective, from the Kyoto Protocol for the 2010 horizon. The first section provides a thorough assessment, based on the PRIMES model results, of the marginal and total costs of compliance to the Kyoto Protocol for a no trading case and for two cases of emission trading, respectively at Annex B level and at world level. The second section deals with the importance of technical change both in the demand and the supply side for the achievement of the Kyoto emission reduction targets. Finally, the paper concludes with the key messages of the analysis.

The European energy outlook to 2010 and 2030

This paper presents a consistent EU energy and energy related emissions outlook for the period to 2030. The baseline scenario for the EU was developed using the PRIMES model. The first section presents the key energy features of the baseline outlook of the European energy system. The second section deals with the role of technology progress in the demand and the supply side. Emphasis is given to the role of technological improvement both in the short and the long run. Finally, the paper concludes with the key messages of the outlook.

European Energy and CO 2 Emissions Trends to 2020: PRIMES model v.2

The purpose of this article is to present a summary of a consistent European Union (EU) energy and energy-related emissions outlook for the period to 2020. The material presented here is based on quantitative analysis and on a process of communication with and feedback from a number of energy experts and organizations. All the results presented for EU energy trends are based on the PRIMES partial equilibrium model for the European energy system, version 2. The PRIMES model provides simulation of the energy system and the decisions of the agents and the markets, covering in detail several sectors, uses, and technologies. The results of this analysis indicate that the EU will not meet the obligations for greenhouse gas emissions reductions it undertook at Kyoto unless it introduces policy initiatives for the abatement of energy-related emissions. Although the industrial, tertiary, household, and transportation sectors can all make significant contributions to CO2 emissions reductions, the electricity- and steam-generation sector appears to offer the greatest potential because of its relative flexibility in terms of technology and fuel choice. Finally, when the only criterion for emissions reductions is economic efficiency, our analysis indicates that reduction levels differ significantly among EU countries.

Endogenous learning in European post-Kyoto scenarios: results from applying the market equilibrium model PRIMES

This paper describes the endogenous technical change mechanism that has been incorporated in the PRIMES model and the main quantitative results in post Kyoto CO2 emission reduction scenarios for the EU energy system. The first section presents the learning mechanism as incorporated in the PRIMES model. Section 2 deals with the definition of alternative learning regimes in PRIMES and their impacts on model results. The achievement of the post Kyoto emission reduction target for the EU energy system under the different learning mechanism regimes is examined in Section 3. Finally the paper concludes with the evaluation of the benefits from technology change due to endogenous learning in achieving post Kyoto emission reduction targets.

Long-Term Scenarios for the Strategic Energy Policy of the EU

The realisation of a European internal market for energy is still a work in progress. Written by leading European scholars and discussed with major energy stakeholders, this book presents a thorough analysis of the motives and methods needed to achieve a single European energy market.

European Union post-Kyoto scenarios: benefits from accelerated technology progress

This paper addresses the issue of the potential benefits from technological change in post Kyoto CO2 emission reduction scenarios for the EU energy system. The first section provides an assessment, based on the PRIMES model results, of the changes that will occur in a post Kyoto context for the EU energy system. The second section considers the contribution and the benefits of accelerating the progress of key energy technologies (six alternative technology clusters formulated and examined) in the post Kyoto context. Finally, the paper concludes with the comparison of the alternative scenarios and the corresponding benefits from technology change. The result obtained clearly indicate that any acceleration in improving low-carbon generation technologies and demand side technologies can lead to significant reductions of the compliance costs for the emission reduction scenarios.

Economic and energy system implications of the European CO2 mitigation strategy for 2010: a model-based analysis

Since the decision of the Council of Ministers of the EU Member States (3 March 1997) specifying a decrease of greenhouse gas emissions by 15% in 2010 compared with the 1990, there has been a widespread study of the appropriate policy instruments and the associated costs. The task of meeting the emissions reduction targets should not be underestimated. Reducing CO2 emissions for the EU as a whole over the next 15 years would amount to no less than breaking the historical link between economic growth and energy use. Especially in the short term the problem of stranded costs is important. This paper attempts a synthesis of results coming from several new-generation models developed recently, and examines the economic and energy system implications of both short-term policies and measures for emission reduction as well as long-term technology options.

POTEnCIA: A new EU-wide energy sector model

This paper lays out the key features of the new modelling tool POTEnCIA (Policy Oriented Tool for Energy and Climate Change Impact Assessment) for the EU energy system. The model follows a hybrid partial equilibrium approach combining behavioural decision with detailed techno-economic data. Special features are introduced in order to appropriately reflect the implications of an uptake of novel energy technologies and of evolving market structures, allowing for the robust assessment of ambitious policy futures for the EU energy system. The model runs in annual time steps with a typical projection timeline to 2050.