Pantelis Capros

EU Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions: Trends to 2050, Reference Scenario 2013

This report is an update and extension of the previous trend scenarios for development of energy systems taking account of transport and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions developments. The purpose of this publication is to present the new European Union (EU) Reference scenario 2013. It focuses on energy, transport and climate dimensions of EU developments and the various interactions among policies, including specific sections on emission trends not related to energy. The Reference scenario was elaborated by a consortium led by the National Technical University of Athens (E3MLab) using the PRIMES model for energy and CO2 emission projections, the GAINS model for non-CO2 emission projections and the GLOBIOM-G4M models for LULUCF emission and removal projections. The scenarios are available for the EU and each of its 28 Member States simulating the energy balances and GHG emission trends for future years under current trends and policies as adopted in the Member States by spring 2012.

Low-CO2 energy pathways and regional air pollution in Europe

Abstract This paper compares three scenarios of energy demand in the European Union until 2010 and analyses their effects on carbon emissions as well as their impacts on the precursor emissions for acidification and ground-level ozone. The analysis links the results of energy model PRIMES with the integrated environmental assessment model RAINS. Important synergies between climate change policies and policies to control regional air pollution have been identified. Mitigation of acidification and ozone according to the current EU strategy will be easier and cheaper if the Kyoto targets for the reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) are to be met. In case when the Kyoto target needs to be achieved by individual EU member countries without trading in CO2 emission rights, the costs of controlling the pollutants contributing to acidification and ground-level ozone can be up to 10% lower than for the baseline scenario which does not assume any climate change policies. Although lower, the effects are also important if trading in carbon emission rights is allowed. These cost savings compensate up to 20% of higher costs of energy supplies in the EU and associated with them welfare losses caused by the necessity to meet the carbon constraint.

ERIS: A model prototype with endogenous technological change

This paper describes the ERIS Model Prototype, developed within the EU-TEEM project as a flexible tool to study different modelling approaches on the endogenisation of technological change in energy optimisation models. The basic formulation and several variants are presented. Some illustrative results and insights obtained with the prototype are discussed and some perspectives for its future development outlined.

An empirical assessment of macroeconometric and CGE approaches in policy modeling

Abstract The macroeconometric (ME) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models can be considered the cornerstones of the spectrum of quantitative models used today for macroeconomic policy analysis. In the paper we design two small-scale models (an ME and a CGE model) in such a manner that they are representative of their large-scale counterparts, estimate them on a common database, and attempt a systematic comparative assessment of their simulation properties. We suggest various possibilities for use in policy analysis that explore and combine the results of both models.

GEM-E3 Model Documentation

The computable general equilibrium model GEM-E3 has been used in a large set of climate policy applications supporting Commission policy proposals during the last decade, as well as in other environmental and economic policy areas. It can be considered a multi-purpose macroeconomic model, designed to estimate the effects of sector-specific policies on the economy as a whole. The main purpose of this publication is to provide extensive documentation of the models equations and its underlying databases, in order to offer to the broader audience an accurate description of the model characteristics.

Technology evolution and energy modelling: overview of research and findings

This paper provides an overview of the research work carried out within the TEEM research project regarding technology progress and the endogenous representation in energy modelling. It also provides an overview of the model applications that aimed at improving policy-oriented understanding of climate change mitigation when endogenous technology progress is considered. The paper introduces the papers in this volume and summarises their findings. Finally, the paper draws general conclusions for energy and environment policy, energy technology and energy modelling techniques.

The European energy outlook to 2010 and 2030

This paper presents a consistent EU energy and energy related emissions outlook for the period to 2030. The baseline scenario for the EU was developed using the PRIMES model. The first section presents the key energy features of the baseline outlook of the European energy system. The second section deals with the role of technology progress in the demand and the supply side. Emphasis is given to the role of technological improvement both in the short and the long run. Finally, the paper concludes with the key messages of the outlook.

Multicriteria analysis of energy supply decisions in an uncertain future

This paper deals with energy supply investment decisions, related to the choice of technology, in an uncertain future. It develops a multicriteria approach, combining existing modern multicriteria techniques, to support these decisions and illustrates its application with a case study.

Very high penetration of renewable energy sources to the European electricity system in the context of model-based analysis of an energy roadmap towards a low carbon EU economy by 2050

This paper examines a series of scenarios achieving progressively very high levels of renewable energy sources (RES) share in the European electricity generation mix in the context of a roadmap to a low carbon economy in Europe quantified using the PRIMES model. Such high RES penetration levels practically require particularly high deployment of wind and solar, which are variable, else intermittent, sources of power. Implications that this inconvenient characteristic could have on the development of the European electricity system are investigated in this paper. Two moderating technologies are modeled, simulated and analyzed in terms of their ability to deal with the issue of intermittency: a) storage of energy in the form of hydrogen, and b) new DC transmission grid investments. A set of results are provided, illustrating the effect of each of these technologies.

Climate technology strategies

Keywords: CLIMATOLOGIE ; EFFET DE SERRE ; CLIMAT : changement ; GAZ CARBONIQUE Note: Vol. 1 : Controlling greenhouse gases : policy and technology options. - 1999. - XVIII, 365 p. Reference Record created on 2004-09-07, modified on 2016-08-08