Leonidas Paroussos

EU Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions: Trends to 2050, Reference Scenario 2013

This report is an update and extension of the previous trend scenarios for development of energy systems taking account of transport and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions developments. The purpose of this publication is to present the new European Union (EU) Reference scenario 2013. It focuses on energy, transport and climate dimensions of EU developments and the various interactions among policies, including specific sections on emission trends not related to energy. The Reference scenario was elaborated by a consortium led by the National Technical University of Athens (E3MLab) using the PRIMES model for energy and CO2 emission projections, the GAINS model for non-CO2 emission projections and the GLOBIOM-G4M models for LULUCF emission and removal projections. The scenarios are available for the EU and each of its 28 Member States simulating the energy balances and GHG emission trends for future years under current trends and policies as adopted in the Member States by spring 2012.

GEM-E3 Model Documentation

The computable general equilibrium model GEM-E3 has been used in a large set of climate policy applications supporting Commission policy proposals during the last decade, as well as in other environmental and economic policy areas. It can be considered a multi-purpose macroeconomic model, designed to estimate the effects of sector-specific policies on the economy as a whole. The main purpose of this publication is to provide extensive documentation of the models equations and its underlying databases, in order to offer to the broader audience an accurate description of the model characteristics.

Describing economic agent-based models – Dahlem ABM documentation guidelines

At the 100th Dahlem conference “New Approaches in Economics after the Financial Crisis” a working group devised guidelines for the documentation of computational economic agent-based models, based upon – but differing from – the ODD protocol Grimm et al. (2006, 2010). This paper sketches the motivation for coming up with a new set of guidelines tailored to economic multi-agent modelling, and presents these. While analytical economic models can often be precisely and concisely stated by a few equations together with an economic interpretation of their elements, a computational agentbased model, as a conceptual piece of work, may not always be a very tangible entity. For example, it is represented by but usually not identical to the (many) equations constituting the computer code. It is therefore not always easy to describe the model in a way that provides the reader with a thorough understanding of the model. The present guidelines are an attempt at standardizing such descriptions to support understanding and communication, as well as the comparability of economic multi-agent models.

Transformative targets in sustainability policy making: the case of the 30% EU mitigation goal

This paper explores to what extent moving towards the 30% GHG emission reductions by 2020 with respect to 1990 in the EU can be considered a transformative target. To do so, we first define the concept of transformative targets from a complex systems perspective and show a novel approach and original results using an extended application of the GEM-E3 model. Traditional macroeconomic models cannot easily handle key synergetic system effects derived from green growth and sustainability policies, and thus require additional features. We analyse the role of semi-endogenous growth driven by learning-by-doing and low-carbon investment expectations following a long-term transformative trajectory.

Female Labor Force Participation and Economic Development

The relationship between female labor force participation and economic growth in the SEMC was analyzed using an econometric model and the GEM-E3-MEDPRO model. We found a U-shaped relationship between female labor force participation and economic growth. We also found region-specific barriers impeding women’s entry into the labor force. These results were fed into the GEM-E3-MEDPRO model, which was used to simulate two alternative assumptions on female labor participation rates in the SEMC through 2030. The first of these simulates changes in female labor force participation arising from income level trends projected for the period 2015–2030. The second assumes the lowering of region-specific barriers to women working. Lower female labor force participation may lead to lower economic growth in the region. Hence, the removal of region-specific barriers may encourage economic growth. Policies intended to remove such barriers could promote growth in the SEMC.

Limited emission reductions from fuel subsidy removal except in energy-exporting regions

Hopes are high that removing fossil fuel subsidies could help to mitigate climate change by discouraging inefficient energy consumption and levelling the playing field for renewable energy. In September 2016, the G20 countries re-affirmed their 2009 commitment (at the G20 Leaders’ Summit) to phase out fossil fuel subsidies and many national governments are using today’s low oil prices as an opportunity to do so. In practical terms, this means abandoning policies that decrease the price of fossil fuels and electricity generated from fossil fuels to below normal market prices. However, whether the removal of subsidies, even if implemented worldwide, would have a large impact on climate change mitigation has not been systematically explored. Here we show that removing fossil fuel subsidies would have an unexpectedly small impact on global energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions and would not increase renewable energy use by 2030. Subsidy removal would reduce the carbon price necessary to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration at 550 parts per million by only 2–12 per cent under low oil prices. Removing subsidies in most regions would deliver smaller emission reductions than the Paris Agreement (2015) climate pledges and in some regions global subsidy removal may actually lead to an increase in emissions, owing to either coal replacing subsidized oil and natural gas or natural-gas use shifting from subsidizing, energy-exporting regions to non-subsidizing, importing regions. Our results show that subsidy removal would result in the largest CO2 emission reductions in high-income oil- and gas-exporting regions, where the reductions would exceed the climate pledges of these regions and where subsidy removal would affect fewer people living below the poverty line than in lower-income regions.

Energy system transitions and macroeconomic assessment of the Indian building sector

ABSTRACT India’s energy sector has grown rapidly in recent years with buildings playing a major role as they constitute about 40% of India’s final energy demand. This paper provides a quantitative model-based assessment of the evolution of India’s building sector in terms of both energy systems transition and its macroeconomic implications. The coupling of a bottom-up technology-rich energy system model with a macroeconomic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model provides an innovative approach for the in-depth robust analysis of the energy transition in India’s building stock and the induced macroeconomic and employment impacts on the Indian economy. Two main scenarios are explored, namely: the business-as-usual (BAU) and the advanced nationally determined contribution (Adv. NDC) scenarios. The investigation shows that efficiency improvements are vital to counteract the upward pressure on energy demand in the building sector. Energy demand in the building sector results in an increase of CO2 emissions by 27% between 2015 and 2030 due to the technology transition from inefficient solid fuels (traditional biomass) to cleaner energy (liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), piped natural gas (PNG)) before shifting to electricity. The Adv. NDC scenario also leads to a shift in employment from agriculture and towards sectors that benefit from the implementation of Adv. NDC, especially in the construction sectors, electricity and manufacturing sectors.

Energy Demand and GHG Mitigation Options

This chapter presents an analysis of the conditions under which energy can be a lever of sustainable development for the N. Africa (The countries considered are: Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia.) countries in the context of intensification of greenhouse gas abatement policies. The analysis begins with the identification of the distribution, uses and potential uses of the energy resources in the N. African countries. Then growth opportunities for N. African economies are examined in the context of an increasing intensity of climate policy and of a widening of its geographical scope providing opportunities for cross border integration of energy markets, for extension of emission permit markets and the use of JI and CDM development mechanisms (JI (Joint Implementation) and CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) are market instruments introduced in the Kyoto Protocol). In particular, alternative scenario simulations are used to analyze how the N. African countries may gain from incorporation into Europe’s greenhouse gas abatement effort. From a methodological point of view the analysis is performed by means of a computable general equilibrium model, named GEM-E3-Med, specifically constructed for the CIRCE project (CIRCE Integrated Project – Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment. Supported by the European Commission’s Sixth Framework Programme, Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems). The analysis is quantitative and focuses on the effect of alternative scenarios on competitiveness, welfare, employment and economic growth of the Mediterranean economies and in particular the N. African countries.

Trade Liberalisation and Climate Policies

The issue of the reduction of the levels of tariff and non-tariff barriers below the ones corresponding to the GATT agreement of 1994 has been raised in the circles of international organisations such as the WTO, the World Bank, etc. Programmes of trade liberalisation based on the reduction of trade barriers within Regional Trade Agreements are leading towards the same direction. The expansion of world trade that is expected to take place due to these reductions is considered by the same groups as an important factor contributing to an increase in world production and poverty reduction especially in developing countries.