Nikos Kouvaritakis

EU Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions: Trends to 2050, Reference Scenario 2013

This report is an update and extension of the previous trend scenarios for development of energy systems taking account of transport and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions developments. The purpose of this publication is to present the new European Union (EU) Reference scenario 2013. It focuses on energy, transport and climate dimensions of EU developments and the various interactions among policies, including specific sections on emission trends not related to energy. The Reference scenario was elaborated by a consortium led by the National Technical University of Athens (E3MLab) using the PRIMES model for energy and CO2 emission projections, the GAINS model for non-CO2 emission projections and the GLOBIOM-G4M models for LULUCF emission and removal projections. The scenarios are available for the EU and each of its 28 Member States simulating the energy balances and GHG emission trends for future years under current trends and policies as adopted in the Member States by spring 2012.

Long-term outlook of energy use and CO2 emissions from transport in Central and Eastern Europe

A forecast of transport activity, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions from transportation, carried out under ‘business as usual’ economic assumptions, is presented for the 10 countries of Central and Eastern Europe that have acquired the status of ‘accession countries’ to the European Union. Energy demand is projected under considerations of the dynamic evolution of transport modes and their use, the evolution of automotive fuel prices, which are assumed to gradually converge with Western European price levels within the current decade, and assumptions on efficiency improvements in all transport modes according to current technological trends and European regulations. The results, showing transportation energy demand to double and CO2 emissions to be 70% higher in 2030 compared to 2000, are compared with other published forecasts and discussed with a view to potential future energy and environmental impacts in these countries, outlining major policy implications. r 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Costs of a ceiling on Kyoto flexibility

This paper examines the potential costs of a ceiling on the use of flexibility mechanisms in the Kyoto Protocol using POLES, a partial equilibrium model of the world energy system. The results suggest that if emission trading were restricted to Annex I countries, halving the traded volume would increase costs by 11 billion

Incorporating Uncertainty into World Energy Modelling: the PROMETHEUS Model

/year. If emission trading were to operate at a global level, reducing the trade to half the perfect market volume would increase annual costs by 12 billion

Investments in Power Generation Under Uncertainty—a MIP Specification and Large-Scale Application for EU

/year. Global carbon emissions might however be 1% lower. The sensitivity of the results is discussed

Analysis of Future Common Strategies Between the South and East Mediterranean Area and the EU in the Energy Sector

In general, policy and most economic decisions like investments are formulated in a non-deterministic context. Their analysis can be considerably enhanced if probability information on future outcomes is available, especially in terms of unbiased estimates of the extent of unpredictability and stochastic dependence. For the sake of transparency, it is also important to be able to trace the justification of variability and its structure. This paper introduces PROMETHEUS, a stochastic model of the world energy system that is designed to produce joint empirical distributions of future outcomes concerning many variables that are important in terms of the evolution of the world energy system. The model methodology is based on Monte Carlo techniques, and the joint distributions of the model inputs are derived to a large extent not only from statistical econometric analysis but also from specialised studies. The emphasis is placed on the exhaustive coverage of variability including omitted variables. By incorporating detailed coverage of uncertainty into a comprehensive large-scale global energy system model, PROMETHEUS can be used to quantify probabilistic assessments of future model outcomes, which constitute critical parameters in formulating robust energy and climate policies. The description of the main model characteristics is complemented with an analytical example that illustrates the usefulness of stochastic PROMETHEUS results in the context of power generation investments under uncertainty.

Trade Liberalisation and Climate Policies

Investments in power generation constitute a typical budget allocation problem in the context of multiple objectives, while all factors influencing investor’s decisions for power plants are subject to considerable uncertainties. The paper introduces a multi-objective stochastic model designed to optimize budget allocation decisions for power generation in the context of risk aversion taking into account several sources of uncertainty, especially with regard to volatility of fossil fuel and electricity prices, technological costs, and climate policy variability. Probability distributions for uncertain factors influencing investment decisions are directly derived from the stochastic global energy model PROMETHEUS and thus they take into account complex interactions between variables in the systemic context. In order to fully incorporate stochastic characteristics of the problem, the model is specified as an optimization problem in which the probability that an objective exceeds a given threshold is maximized (risk aversion) subject to a set of deterministic and probabilistic constraints. The model is formulated as a mixed integer program providing complete flexibility on the joint distributions of rates of return of technologies competing for investments, as it can handle non-symmetric distributions and take automatically into account complex covariance patterns as emerging from comprehensive PROMETHEUS stochastic results. The analysis shows that risk is a crucial factor for power generation investments with investors not opting for technologies subject to uncertainty related to climate policies and fossil fuel prices. On the other hand, combination of options with negative covariance tends to benefit in the context of risk-hedging behavior.

Model-based analysis of the future strategies for the MENA energy system

Abstract Uncontestably the south and east Mediterranean (SEM) region and the European Union (EU) will mutually benefit by sharing energy resources in view of their strategic long-term aspirations. The SEM region has great potential for energy efficiency improvements and deployment of renewables which are sufficient both to cover local needs and to release hydrocarbon resources for exportation as well as to help the EU achieve the Energy Roadmap emission reduction targets at lower costs. Two kinds of obstacles currently hamper taking advantage of the untapped potential: (1) lack of power interconnection infrastructure and regulatory policy framework and (2) persistence of fossil fuel subsidies in a large part of the SEM region. This analysis is based on a large-scale energy system modeling of both the SEM and the EU regions and assesses two alternative cooperation strategies. The first strategy is essentially based on centralized actions involving large-scale exploitation of renewables in large-scale installations with a mainly exportation orientation. This strategy offers the best, cost-effective prospects for electricity exports to the EU under mechanisms of remuneration based on power purchase agreements (PPAs) and geographic expansion of the EU-ETS. The second, alternative strategy gives priority to decentralized investment aiming at exploiting dispersed renewable sources – the renewables recombined with proactive removal of current energy-pricing distortions and policies providing incentives for energy savings by energy consumers. The two scenarios differ in technology mix and have different impacts on the energy system, the energy trade balance, power generation costs, and investment financing. The scenarios also require different regulatory and investment promoting frameworks to materialize.

Impacts of energy taxation in the enlarged European Union, evaluation with GEM-E3 Europe

The issue of the reduction of the levels of tariff and non-tariff barriers below the ones corresponding to the GATT agreement of 1994 has been raised in the circles of international organisations such as the WTO, the World Bank, etc. Programmes of trade liberalisation based on the reduction of trade barriers within Regional Trade Agreements are leading towards the same direction. The expansion of world trade that is expected to take place due to these reductions is considered by the same groups as an important factor contributing to an increase in world production and poverty reduction especially in developing countries.