Lorena Cadavid

Financial analysis of photovoltaic configurations for Colombian households

In this paper we analyze the financial feasibility of different solar configurations as alternatives of microgeneration at Colombian homes. We designed five solar solution configurations considering the connection availability to national grid, batteries as a storage option, and the possibility to sell the surplus to the national electricity system. Then we developed a financial model to determine microgeneration cost of each configuration and we compared those costs with the electricity tariff offered by local electricity companies. We found that all the configurations (ie, with or without batteries and grid connection) represent saving money for residential users along several cities, which sets the solar technology as a real solution for electricity micro generation in Colombia.

Impact of devaluation on grid parity for residential solar generation in Latin America

In the last two years, Latin America has experienced a high devaluation of regional currencies, which means a decrease in the foreign price of national goods. In this paper, we analyze the impact that local currency devaluation has in the parity grid for solar electricity generation systems at a residential level. We developed a financial model based on the Levelized Cost of Energy indicator for nine Latin-American cities, considering two different scenarios: 2014 and 2016 prices. We found that devaluation delays the grid parity for solar generation for all analyzed cities. With 2014 prices, 3 out of nine cities would reach its grid parity in the 2016 year, while with 2016 prices, cities would reach the parity from the year 2023. Results highlight the financial feasibility for house-holding solar generation, and expose the price risk for the Latin-American market.

Policy Analysis for the diffusion of Natural Gas Vehicles: The Colombian Case

In this paper we analyze the diffusion of natural gas for transportation in a market, in order to understand the factors that affect its adoption and evaluate several policies to enhance the diffusion speed in the Colombian market. We developed a simulation model to represent a market composed by individuals who could potentially adopt the natural gas for transportation, according to a pool of strategies implemented by organizations and government. Those strategies are directed to decrease the price of technology as well as the fuel for the adopters, and increase the amount of fuel stations. Having discussed the results, we conclude that the mechanisms aimed to increase supply stations have the greatest impact on the use of natural gas for transportation. Furthermore, if current policies are maintained, the dissemination of this fuel in Colombian territory will be worth around 16% by 2035, much less than desired by organizations and government.

Impacto de la regla de decisión en el modelado de la difusión de innovaciones

Este articulo analiza el impacto de la regla de decision que representa el comportamiento de los individuos en la curva de difusion pronosticada por los modelos de difusion de innovaciones a nivel individual. Para ello, se hace uso de un modelo basado en agentes, en el cual la difusion ocurre dentro de una red tipo mundo pequeno, y se analiza el fenomeno usando 4 reglas de decision diferentes: (1) una regla de umbrales con externalidades positivas, (2) una regla de umbrales con externalidades positivas y negativas, (3) una regla basada en el modelo de Bass y (4) una regla basada en la Teoria del Comportamiento Planeado. Los resultados obtenidos rechazan la hipotesis de igualdad entre las diferentes curvas de difusion. Se concluye que la regla de decision tiene un impacto significativo en la curva de difusion pronosticada por los modelos de difusion a nivel individual.

Saddle Points in Innovation Diffusion Curves: An Explanation from Bounded Rationality

Empirical evidence shows that mostly complete and successful processes of innovation diffusion are S-shaped. However, some diffusion processes exhibit a non-perfect S-curve, but show a saddle point, which is displayed as a double-S. The reasons behind this phenomenon have been little studied in the literature. This paper addresses the emergence of the double-S phenomenon in the innovation diffusion process and provides an explanation for it. In order to do that, the authors develop an agent-based simulation model to representing the diffusion of two innovations in a competitive market considering elements of bounded rationality. The results show saddle points appear as a result of three characteristics: (1) the heterogeneity in the population, (2) the presence of asymmetric information and (3) the satisfaction criterion for selection.