Lucas M. Harris

Simulation and Prediction of Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes in the High-Resolution GFDL HiFLOR Coupled Climate Model*

AbstractA new high-resolution Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model [the High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) model (HiFLOR)] has been developed and used to investigate potential skill in simulation and prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity. HiFLOR comprises high-resolution (~25-km mesh) atmosphere and land components and a more moderate-resolution (~100-km mesh) sea ice and ocean component. HiFLOR was developed from FLOR by decreasing the horizontal grid spacing of the atmospheric component from 50 to 25 km, while leaving most of the subgrid-scale physical parameterizations unchanged. Compared with FLOR, HiFLOR yields a more realistic simulation of the structure, global distribution, and seasonal and interannual variations of TCs, as well as a comparable simulation of storm-induced cold wakes and TC-genesis modulation induced by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Moreover, HiFLOR is able to simulate and predict extremely intense TCs (Saffir–Simpson h...

A flux-form version of the conservative semi-Lagrangian multi-tracer transport scheme (CSLAM) on the cubed sphere grid

A conservative semi-Lagrangian cell-integrated transport scheme (CSLAM) was recently introduced, which ensures global mass conservation and allows long timesteps, multi-tracer efficiency, and shape preservation through the use of reconstruction filtering. This method is fully two-dimensional so that it may be easily implemented on non-cartesian grids such as the cubed-sphere grid. We present a flux-form implementation, FF-CSLAM, which retains the advantages of CSLAM while also allowing the use of flux-limited monotonicity and positivity preservation and efficient tracer sub-cycling. The methods are equivalent in the absence of flux limiting or reconstruction filtering.FF-CSLAM was found to be third-order accurate when an appropriately smooth initial mass distribution and flow field (with at least a continuous second derivative) was used. This was true even when using highly deformational flows and when the distribution is advected over the singularities in the cubed sphere, the latter a consequence of the full two-dimensionality of the method. Flux-limited monotonicity preservation, which is only available in a flux-form method, was found to be both less diffusive and more efficient than the monotone reconstruction filtering available to CSLAM. Despite the additional overhead of computing fluxes compared to CSLAMs cell integrations, the non-monotone FF-CSLAM was found to be at most only 40% slower than CSLAM for Courant numbers less than one, with greater overhead for successively larger Courant numbers.

Improved Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Responses to ENSO in the Western North Pacific in the High-Resolution GFDL HiFLOR Coupled Climate Model*

AbstractThis study aims to assess whether, and the extent to which, an increase in atmospheric resolution of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5 (FLOR) with 50-km resolution and the High-Resolution FLOR (HiFLOR) with 25-km resolution improves the simulation of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–tropical cyclone (TC) connections in the western North Pacific (WNP). HiFLOR simulates better ENSO–TC connections in the WNP including TC track density, genesis, and landfall than FLOR in both long-term control experiments and sea surface temperature (SST)- and sea surface salinity (SSS)-restoring historical runs (1971–2012). Restoring experiments are performed with SSS and SST restored to observational estimates of climatological SSS and interannually varying monthly SST. In the control experiments of HiFLOR, an improved simulation of the Walker circulation arising from more realistic SST and precipitation is largely responsible for its bett...

High-Resolution Climate Simulations Using GFDL HiRAM with a Stretched Global Grid

AbstractAn analytic Schmidt transformation is used to create locally refined global model grids capable of efficient climate simulation with gridcell widths as small as 10 km in the GFDL High-Resolution Atmosphere Model (HiRAM). This method of grid stretching produces a grid that varies very gradually into the region of enhanced resolution without changing the topology of the model grid and does not require radical changes to the solver. AMIP integrations were carried out with two grids stretched to 10-km minimum gridcell width: one centered over East Asia and the western Pacific warm pool, and the other over the continental United States. Robust improvements to orographic precipitation, the diurnal cycle of warm-season continental precipitation, and tropical cyclone maximum intensity were found in the region of enhanced resolution, compared to 25-km uniform-resolution HiRAM. The variations in grid size were not found to create apparent grid artifacts, and in some measures the global-mean climate improved...

Beyond Weather Time-Scale Prediction for Hurricane Sandy and Super Typhoon Haiyan in a Global Climate Model

AbstractWhile tropical cyclone (TC) prediction, in particular TC genesis, remains very challenging, accurate prediction of TCs is critical for timely preparedness and mitigation. Using a new version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model, the authors studied the predictability of two destructive landfall TCs: Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Results demonstrate that the geneses of these two TCs are highly predictable with the maximum prediction lead time reaching 11 days. The “beyond weather time scale” predictability of tropical cyclogenesis is primarily attributed to the model’s skillful prediction of the intraseasonal Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the westward propagation of easterly waves. Meanwhile, the landfall location and time can be predicted one week ahead for Sandy’s U.S landfall, and two weeks ahead for Haiyan’s landing in the Philippines. The success in predicting Sandy and Haiyan, together with low false alarms, indicates the potentia...

Global-to-Regional Nested Grid Climate Simulations in the GFDL High Resolution Atmospheric Model

AbstractA two-way nested grid version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory High Resolution Atmosphere Model (HiRAM) has been developed that uses simple methods for providing nested grid boundary conditions and mass-conserving nested-to-global communication. Nested grid simulations over the Maritime Continent and over North America were performed, each at two different resolutions: a 110-km mean grid cell width refined by a factor of 3, and a 50-km mean grid cell width refined by a factor of 2. Nested grid simulations were compared against uniform-resolution simulations, and against reanalyses, to determine the effect of grid nesting on both the modeled global climate and the simulation of small-scale features.Orographically forced precipitation was robustly found to be simulated with more detail and greater realism in a nested grid simulation compared with when only the coarse grids were simulated alone. Tropical precipitation biases were reduced in the Maritime Continent region when a nested grid...

The GFDL Global Atmosphere and Land Model AM4.0/LM4.0: 1. Simulation Characteristics With Prescribed SSTs

In this two-part paper, a description is provided of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/ land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). This version, with roughly 100 km horizontal resolution and 33 levels in the vertical, contains an aerosol model that generates aerosol fields from emissions and a ‘‘light’’ chemistry mechanism designed to support the aerosol model but with prescribed ozone. In Part 1, the quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode—with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice distribution—is described and compared with previous GFDL models and with the CMIP5 archive of AMIP simulations. The model’s Cess sensitivity (response in the top-of-atmosphere radiative flux to uniform warming of SSTs) and effective radiative forcing are also presented. In Part 2, the model formulation is described more fully and key sensitivities to aspects of the model formulation are discussed, along with the approach to model tuning.

The GFDL Global Atmosphere and Land Model AM4.0/LM4.0: 2. Model Description, Sensitivity Studies, and Tuning Strategies

In Part II of this two-part paper, documentation is provided of key aspects of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAAs Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode has been provided in Part I. Part II provides documentation of key components and some sensitivities to choices of model formulation and values of parameters, highlighting the convection parameterization and orographic gravity wave drag. The approach taken to tune the models clouds to observations is a particular focal point. Care is taken to describe the extent to which aerosol effective forcing and Cess sensitivity have been tuned through the model development process, both of which are relevant to the ability of the model to simulate the evolution of temperatures over the last century when coupled to an ocean model.

Colliding Modons: A Nonlinear Test for the Evaluation of Global Dynamical Cores

The modon, a pair of counter-rotating vortices propelling one another along a straight line, is an idealization of some observed large- and small-scale atmospheric and oceanic processes (e.g., twin cyclones), providing a challenging nonlinear test for fluid-dynamics solvers (known as “dynamical cores”). We present an easy-to-setup test of colliding modons suitable for both shallow-water and three-dimensional dynamical cores on the sphere. Two pairs of idealized modons are configured to collide, exchange vortices, and depart in opposite directions, repeating indefinitely in the absence of ambient rotation. This test is applicable to both hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic dynamical cores and particularly challenging for refined grids on the sphere, regardless of solution methodology or vertical coordinate. We applied this test to three popular dynamical cores, used by three different general circulation models: the spectral element core of the Community Atmosphere Model, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) spectral core, and the GFDL finite-volume cubed-sphere core, FV3. Tests with a locally-refined grid and nonhydrostatic dynamics were also performed with FV3. All cores tested were able to capture the propagation, collision, and exchange of the modons, albeit the rate at which the modon was diffused varied between the three cores and showed a strong dependence on the strength of hyper-diffusion.

Impact of Intraseasonal Oscillations on the Tropical Cyclone Activity Over the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean Sea in GFDL HiRAM

The tropical cyclones (TCs) that form over the warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico region pose a major threat to the surrounding coastal communities. Skillful subseasonal prediction of TC activity is important for early preparedness and reducing the TC damage in this region. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a 25 km resolution Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) in simulating the modulation of the TC activity in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea by the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) based on multiyear retrospective seasonal predictions. We demonstrate that the HiRAM faithfully captures the observed influence of ISO on TC activity over the region of interest, including the formation of tropical storms and (major) hurricanes, as well as the landfalling storms. This is likely because of the realistic representation of the large-scale anomalies associated with boreal summer ISO over Northeast Pacific in HiRAM, especially the enhanced (reduced) moisture throughout the troposphere during the convectively enhanced (suppressed) phase of ISO. The reasonable performance of HiRAM suggests its potential for the subseasonal prediction of regional TC risk.