Luiz Carlos Duclós

Avaliação de Retornos e Riscos na Comercialização de Milho: estudo de caso usando Value-at-Risk

In each of the productive chain links, finding viable strategies for risk mitigation is not a trivial task. Usually, generic strategies are adopted to reduce risks, such as diversification of crops and/or strategies aiming at transferring or diluting risk through futures contracts and insurance. This article aims to evaluate three strategies for managing risks concerning the corn trading: simultaneous buying and selling, storage and short selling. Towards the methodological procedures, this study is descriptive regarding its goal and it is a case study regarding the approach of the problem. Literature and documents were used as procedures for data collection, with coverage for the period of crops from 2003 to 2010. The Value at Risk (VaR) and Sharpe Ratio Modified, which is a variation of the Sharpe Ratio, were used to evaluate commercialization strategies. The results show that the highest returns for the storage would be obtained during winter seasons and for shorter periods. For the short selling, the return averages are similar for all time horizons. The simultaneous buying and selling showed the best risk/return ratio.

Enterprise architecture maturity stages: A cluster analysis in Brazilian small businesses

Enterprise Architecture - EA encompasses the core business processes, Information Technology infrastructure (IT), systems, and technologies, as well as the level of integration and standardization of data and processes. Companies that develop EA tend to migrate from local applications to systems that share infrastructure and data. In this context, the aim of this study is to identify how the SMEs –Small Enterprises from Southern Brazil are positioned in maturity levels of EA set out by their IT investments. The sample comprised 152 small businesses and the methodology employed included cluster analysis with average link between groups as linkage method and Euclidean distance as similarity measure. After the identification of eight main EA maturity stages, non-parametric tests such as Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney were employed to identify significant differences among the stages regarding their age and the number of employees. The results indicate that the average number of employees is low from stages zero to four, grows significantly in stage five and decreases moderately in the final stages, where the decrease from stage six to seven is also significant statistically. Moreover, the study suggests that small companies use less EA because they have fewer activities. On the other hand, larger companies use more EA because they are more complex and need more employees. However, after a certain point, the more they increase their EA level, the more efficient they become and the fewer employees are needed. Key words: Information technology, infrastructure investments, small and medium enterprise SME, maturity model.

An Artifact for Evaluating the Quality of Health Service Providers: Evidence From Brazil

The aim of this article is to present an artifact for evaluating the quality and performance of service providers in the field of health care: the UNIPLUS Program. To verify the scientific nature of the artifact and ensure that it meets the criteria set by the community and the environment, the premises of Design Science Research (DSR) were used. As this research field lacks empirical evidence, the artifact was tested from 2013 to 2015 with 25 health care service providers from different categories, with an emphasis on hospitals and clinics located in 7 cities in the south of Brazil. This article makes 3 main contributions to the field: (1) the artifact can be applied to any health insurance operator in Brazil and other countries, as it meets the legal norms and requirements established by current legislation; (2) it helps health service providers by generating information that identifies shortfalls and possibilities for improvement for every aspect analyzed in the evaluation process; and (3) it uses the DSR methodology in an evaluation artifact that evaluates the quality and performance of services in the field of health care. The artifact proved to be adequate for the purpose in question, helping to improve the quality of care and institutional performance.

New Causal Model for Brazilian Private Higher Education Institutions: A Dynamic Capability Perspective

The purpose of this paper is to extend knowledge of enterprise architecture and the importance of the operating model of a firm through a Dynamic Capabilities perspective. First, the authors attempt to position Private Educational Institutions in an operating model. They propose a model that relates enterprise architecture to the dynamic capabilities approach. A questionnaire was prepared in accordance with the proposed structural equation model and was sent to 1,932 private universities. The results show a significant relationship between operational model dimensions and reconfiguring capability. This paper contributes with a better understanding of enterprise architecture regarding its strategic relevance to organizations, in particular to Educational Institutions. Dynamic Capabilities proved to be a relevant and promising concept for the study of Enterprise Architecture operating models. This implies that the reconfiguring capabilities in Enterprise Architecture project implementation are positively affected by the operating model of the institutions.

APLICAÇÃO DA TEORIA GREY E FMEA – ANÁLISE DOS MODOS DE FALHA E EFEITOS NA PRIORIZAÇÃO DE RISCOS DE PROJETOS DE DESENVOLVIMENTO DE SOFTWARE PRODUTO

Este artigo propoe uma forma alternativa para priorizacao dos riscos em projetos de desenvolvimento de software produto. Uma das areas prioritarias do gerenciamento de projetos e a area de gerenciamento de riscos. A forma mais rapida para fazer uma analise qualitativa conforme Pritchard, PMI, Wideman, Schuyler e Chapman;Ward e a multiplicacao da probabilidade pelo impacto dos eventos de riscos. O resultado e uma lista ordenada, onde os maiores numeros representam os maiores riscos. Atualmente a industria automobilistica usa o FMEA para analizar seus projetos possibilitando o levantamento, analise e a priorizacao das causas de falhas. Outro metodo analitico de avaliar fatores incerteza e a teoria Grey, que analisa o grau de relacao entre as variaveis e um padrao definido como otimo. Este trabalho e um estudo de caso em uma organizacao que desenvolve software produto. Os riscos foram analisados levando em conta projetos ja executados e a sequencia dos eventos. Foram usados o metodo tradicional da probabilidade versus impacto, o metodo FMEA e o grau de relacao da teoria Grey. O resultado demonstrou que o calculo da priorizacao de riscos usando probabilidade versus impacto obteve 21% de acerto, o FMEA obteve 25% de acerto e com a teoria Grey obteve 39% de acerto. Outros estudos sao necessarios objetivando comparacoes entre os metodos.