Alceu Souza

Impacto da intensificação da densidade de plantio na rentabilidade em duas cultivares de macieira em Fraiburgo-SC

The present article aims at analyzing the production costs, profitability and risks involved in the apple agro-business concerning two varieties grown in Fraiburgo, Brazil: Gala and Fuji. Production costs, profitability and risks involved in this activity are described based on two plant densities. The methodology, based on the discounted cash flow, generated return and risk indicators. These indicators show medium profitability associated with this agro-business. Nevertheless use of technology, measured by plant density, improves profitability, as well as to change cultivar Gala by Fuji.

Desempenho econômico-financeiro de cooperativas: o caso do programa de monitoramento da autogestão das cooperativas agropecuárias do Paraná

This article presents the contributions of the Monitoring Program of self - management process of cooperatives in the state of Parana - Brazil. This is a program promoted by the Organization of Cooperatives of Parana (OCEPAR), which, considering the specific legal and operational aspects of this type of organization, has adapted some indicators of economic and financial performance. It is presented its history and described its main characteristics as well as the adjustments made in the capital structure indicators, the Kanitz thermometer and the creation of the internal liquidity indicator. This is a descriptive research on its purpose; of hypothetical examples regarding the strategy approach to the problem; secondary data regarding the data collection process; longitudinal study regarding the temporal amplitude of data collection (Balance sheets of agricultural cooperatives from 1998 to 2013) and qualitative regarding the methods of analysis. A contribution of this program was the support, with technical data, for constructing the state scenario that originated the programs of support to the cooperatives, highlighting the Program of Revitalization of Cooperatives of Agricultural and Livestock Production (RECOOP), Cooperative Development Program for Value Aggregation Agricultural Production (PRODECOOP) and the Capitalization Program of Agricultural Cooperatives (PROCAP-AGRO).

Avaliação de Retornos e Riscos na Comercialização de Milho: estudo de caso usando Value-at-Risk

In each of the productive chain links, finding viable strategies for risk mitigation is not a trivial task. Usually, generic strategies are adopted to reduce risks, such as diversification of crops and/or strategies aiming at transferring or diluting risk through futures contracts and insurance. This article aims to evaluate three strategies for managing risks concerning the corn trading: simultaneous buying and selling, storage and short selling. Towards the methodological procedures, this study is descriptive regarding its goal and it is a case study regarding the approach of the problem. Literature and documents were used as procedures for data collection, with coverage for the period of crops from 2003 to 2010. The Value at Risk (VaR) and Sharpe Ratio Modified, which is a variation of the Sharpe Ratio, were used to evaluate commercialization strategies. The results show that the highest returns for the storage would be obtained during winter seasons and for shorter periods. For the short selling, the return averages are similar for all time horizons. The simultaneous buying and selling showed the best risk/return ratio.

Avaliação econômica de alternativas de investimentos no agronegócio da uva no meio oeste Catarinense

The present article aims at analyzing the production costs, profitability and risks involved in the grape agro-business addressed to wine and juice production in West of Santa Catarina state region. Investments, production costs, profitability and risks involved in this activity are described based on three support systems for wine grape and juice grape production: trellis, Y type trellis and Vertical trellis. The methodology, based on the discounted cash flow, generated return and risk indicators. These indicators show low profitability and medium risk concerning wine, and low profitability and risk concerning juice.

Econometric analysis of cointegration and causality between markets prices toward futures contracts: Evidence from the live cattle market in Brazil

Abstract The objective of this study is to investigate evidence of cointegration and causality between the market price of the live cattle in Brazil and the prices of the respective derivatives traded on BM&FBOVESPA – São Paulo, Brazil. The Johansen test was used to analyze evidence of cointegration between markets. The cointegration of these markets and their bidirectional causality signal to decision-makers in this agribusiness that the variations in BM&FBOVESPA futures contracts cause changes in the prices of the spot prices, as well as the spot prices cause to the futures contracts of B&MFBOVESPA.

DO RATIONAL AGENTS MAKE THE SAME HEURISTIC ERRORS AS LAYMEN? EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE MANIPULATING RATIONALITY

Prospect Theory revealed that when resorting to certain psychological biases, individuals violate the expected utility in situations involving risk. Later studies replicated the seminal experiment conducted by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), demonstrating that these biases also involve more rational individuals, with the parameters of rationality being set by different proxies such as academic level, knowledge concerning the decision-making process or capital markets experience. The aim of this article was to conduct a deeper analysis of heuristic errors committed by such individuals by directly manipulating the rationality variable for the experimental group, exposing it to the Expected Utility Theory before applying the questionnaire. The results show that there was no significant divergence between the answers given by the experimental group and the control group. Both made the same heuristic errors, corroborating the assumptions of Prospect Theory.

Eficiência dos mercados futuros de commodities agrícolas aplicando-se o teste de cointegração

This article aims at testing the weak form of efficiency of the commodity futures market in Arabica coffee farming using the cointegration technique in order to check if the current futures prices are biased estimators of spot prices expected for the future. Thereto it uses the futures prices time series from January 2005 to May 2011, which were collected in the Commodities and Futures Exchange - BM & F and spot prices, calculated by CEPEA / ESALQ / USP. Dickey and Fuller’s ADF tests are the metrics used to detect the presence of unit root and Johansen’s cointegration test is used to verify the existence of a long term relationship. The results indicated the non-stationarity of price series besides the presence of cointegration. However, regression parameters testing α = 0 e β = 1 proves that weak efficiency and non-biased found statistical evidence of non-market efficiency. Moreover, the presence of a bias indicating the existence of a premium associated with risk was also found.

CUSTOS DE PRODUCAO E EXPEOATIVAS DE RETORNO NO AGRIBUSINESS DA MAÇÃ

Este artigo analisa os custos de producao e a viabilidade do agribusiness maca por meio de um conjunto de indicadores de retorno e de risco. Detalham-se os custos de producao desse agribusiness, sua rentabilidade e os riscos inerentes a esta atividade. A metodologia utilizada foi a da analise do fluxo de caixa projetado, a partir de dados levantados nas regioes produtoras, para um hectare de pomar com densidade de 1.000 plantas. Os indicadores calculados sinalizam para uma rentabilidade media e um risco de medio para alto. Ha coerencia entre os resultados encontrados e observacoes empiricas sobre o desenvolvimento deste agribusiness.O objetivo deste artigo foi avaliar o processo de aprendizagem na base metal-mecânica da Regiao Metropolitana de Curitiba e de Interacao deste processo com o desenvolvido pelas montadoras. Por meio de uma pesquisa de campo realizada com 14 empresas da base metal-mecânica e fornecedoras de sistemistas e das montadoras da regiao metropolitana de Curitiba demonstrou-se que o esforco de aprendizagem dessas empresas foi reduzido, tanto por meio das suas relacoes internas quanto das suas relacoes externas. Em torno de 43% dos dirigentes concentram o seu tempo no desenvolvimento de atividades operacionais e apenas 14% deles direcionam a maior parte do tempo para o planejamento estrategico. Poucas empresas, dentre as pesquisadas, utilizam estrategias de benchmarking para desenvolver novos produtos e processos, apesar de 57% dos dirigentes auto-avaliaram o desenvolvimento de seus produtos como sendo avancados e 71 % consideraram a sua estrategia de manufatura e fabricacao tambem avancada. A pesquisa mostrou que as empresas da base metal-mecânica pouco se ocupam com o processo de aprendizagem. Isso faz com que elas nao consigam se capacitar para continuar competindo.