Malik Shukayev

Are Average Growth Rate and Volatility Related

The empirical relationship between the average growth rate and the volatility of growth rates, both over time and across countries, has important policy implications, which depend critically on the sign of the relationship. Following Ramey and Ramey (1995), a wide consensus has been building that, in the post-World War II data, the correlation is negative. The authors replicate Ramey and Rameys result and find that it is not robust to either the definition of growth rate or the composition of the sample. They show that the use of log difference as growth rates, as in Ramey and Ramey, creates a strong bias towards finding a negative relationship. Further, they exhaustively investigate this relationship, for various growth rates, across time, countries, within groups of countries, and within states of the United States. The authors use different methods and control variables for this inquiry. Their analysis suggests that there is no significant relationship between the two variables in question.

A stochastic dynamic model of trade and growth: Convergence and diversification

There is a growing literature that studies the properties of models that combine international trade and neoclassical growth theory, but mostly in a deterministic setting. In this paper we introduce uncertainty in a dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin model and characterize the equilibrium of a small open economy in such an environment. We show that, when trade is balanced period-by-period, the per capita output and consumption of a small open economy converge to an invariant distribution that is independent of the initial wealth. Further, at the invariant distribution, there are periods in which the small economy diversifies. Numerical simulations show that the speed of convergence increases with the size of the shocks. In the limit, when there is no uncertainty, there is no convergence and countries may specialize permanently. The paper highlights the role of market incompleteness, as a result of the period-by-period trade balance, in this setup. Through an analytical example we also illustrate the importance of country specific risk in delivering our results.

Optimal price-level drift under commitment in the canonical New Keynesian model

In both the canonical and many extended versions of the New Keynesian model, optimal monetary policy under commitment implies price-level stationarity as long as expectations are rational. We show that this is no longer the case if the central bank and private agents make decisions before observing current shocks. The optimal amount of price-level drift in response to unexpected innovations to inflation is quantitatively important. This result has important implications for monetary policy, including the design of the optimal loss function for the central bank if it cannot commit to its future policies.

Optimal Price‐Level Drift Under Commitment in the Canonical New Keynesian Model (Dérive Optimale Du Niveau Des Prix Quand Il Y a Engagement Dans Le Nouveau Modèle Keynésien Canonique)

In both the canonical and many extended versions of the New Keynesian model, optimal monetary policy under commitment implies price-level stationarity as long as expectations are rational. We show that this is no longer the case if the central bank and private agents make decisions before observing current shocks. The optimal amount of price-level drift in response to unexpected innovations to inflation is quantitatively important. This result has important implications for monetary policy, including the design of the optimal loss function for the central bank if it cannot commit to its future policies.