Marc O. Nadon

Re-Creating Missing Population Baselines for Pacific Reef Sharks

Summary Abstract Sharks and other large predators are scarce on most coral reefs, but studies of their historical ecology provide qualitative evidence that predators were once numerous in these ecosystems. Quantifying density of sharks in the absence of humans (baseline) is, however, hindered by a paucity of pertinent time-series data. Recently researchers have used underwater visual surveys, primarily of limited spatial extent or nonstandard design, to infer negative associations between reef shark abundance and human populations. We analyzed data from 1607 towed-diver surveys (>1 ha transects surveyed by observers towed behind a boat) conducted at 46 reefs in the central-western Pacific Ocean, reefs that included some of the worlds most pristine coral reefs. Estimates of shark density from towed-diver surveys were substantially lower (<10%) than published estimates from surveys along small transects (<0.02 ha), which is not consistent with inverted biomass pyramids (predator biomass greater than prey biomass) reported by other researchers for pristine reefs. We examined the relation between the density of reef sharks observed in towed-diver surveys and human population in models that accounted for the influence of oceanic primary productivity, sea surface temperature, reef area, and reef physical complexity. We used these models to estimate the density of sharks in the absence of humans. Densities of gray reef sharks (Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos), whitetip reef sharks (Triaenodon obesus), and the group “all reef sharks” increased substantially as human population decreased and as primary productivity and minimum sea surface temperature (or reef area, which was highly correlated with temperature) increased. Simulated baseline densities of reef sharks under the absence of humans were 1.1–2.4/ha for the main Hawaiian Islands, 1.2–2.4/ha for inhabited islands of American Samoa, and 0.9–2.1/ha for inhabited islands in the Mariana Archipelago, which suggests that density of reef sharks has declined to 3–10% of baseline levels in these areas. Resumen Los tiburones y otros depredadores mayores son escasos en la mayoría de los arrecifes de coral, pero estudios de su ecología histórica proporcionan evidencia cualitativa de que los depredadores una vez fueron numerosos en estos ecosistemas. Sin embargo, la cuantificación de la densidad de tiburones en ausencia de humanos (línea de base) es obstaculizada por la falta de datos de series de tiempo pertinentes. Recientemente, los investigadores han utilizado muestreos visuales submarinos, de extensión espacial limitada o de diseño no estándar, para inferir asociaciones negativas entre la abundancia de tiburones de arrecife y las poblaciones humanas. Analizamos datos de 1607 muestreos por remolque de buzos (transectos >1ha muestreados por observadores remolcados por una lancha) realizados en 46 arrecifes en el Océano Pacífico centro-occidental, arrecifes que incluyeron algunos de los más prístinos del mundo. Las estimaciones de densidad de tiburones fue sustancialmente menor (<10%) que estimaciones publicadas a partir de muestreos a lo largo de transectos pequeños (<0.02 ha), lo cual no es consistente con las pirámides de biomasa invertidas (la biomasa de depredadores es mayor que la biomasa de presas) reportadas para arrecifes prístinos por otros autores. Examinamos la relación entre la densidad de tiburones de arrecife observados en los muestreos por remolque de buzos y la población humana en modelos y consideramos la influencia de la productividad oceánica primaria, la temperatura de la superficie del mar, la superficie del arrecife y su complejidad física. Utilizamos estos modelos para estimar la densidad de tiburones en ausencia de humanos. Las densidades de Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos, Triaenodon obesus y el grupo de “tiburones estrictamente arrecifales” incrementó sustancialmente a medida que disminuyó la población humana y que incrementó la productividad primaria y la temperatura de la superficie del mar (o superficie del arrecife, que estaba altamente correlacionada con la temperatura. Las densidades basales simuladas de tiburones arrecifales en ausencia de humanos fueron 1.1–2.4/ha para las Islas Hawaianas, 1.2–2.4/ha en islas deshabitadas de Samoa Americana y 0.9–2.1/ha e islas deshabitadas del Archipiélago Mariana, lo que sugiere que la densidad de tiburones arrecifales ha declinado entre 3 -10% en relación con los niveles basales en esas áreas.

Differences in reef fish assemblages between populated and remote reefs spanning multiple archipelagos across the central and western Pacific

Comparable information on the status of natural resources across large geographic and human impact scales provides invaluable context to ecosystem-based management and insights into processes driving differences among areas. Data on fish assemblages at 39 US flag coral reef-areas distributed across the Pacific are presented. Total reef fish biomass varied by more than an order of magnitude: lowest at densely-populated islands and highest on reefs distant from human populations. Remote reefs (<50 people within 100 km) averaged ~4 times the biomass of “all fishes” and 15 times the biomass of piscivores compared to reefs near populated areas. Greatest within-archipelagic differences were found in Hawaiian and Mariana Archipelagos, where differences were consistent with, but likely not exclusively driven by, higher fishing pressure around populated areas. Results highlight the importance of the extremely remote reefs now contained within the system of Pacific Marine National Monuments as ecological reference areas.

Human, oceanographic and habitat drivers of central and western Pacific coral reef fish assemblages.

Coral reefs around US- and US-affiliated Pacific islands and atolls span wide oceanographic gradients and levels of human impact. Here we examine the relative influence of these factors on coral reef fish biomass, using data from a consistent large-scale ecosystem monitoring program conducted by scientific divers over the course of >2,000 hours of underwater observation at 1,934 sites, across ~40 islands and atolls. Consistent with previous smaller-scale studies, our results show sharp declines in reef fish biomass at relatively low human population density, followed by more gradual declines as human population density increased further. Adjusting for other factors, the highest levels of oceanic productivity among our study locations were associated with more than double the biomass of reef fishes (including ~4 times the biomass of planktivores and piscivores) compared to islands with lowest oceanic productivity. Our results emphasize that coral reef areas do not all have equal ability to sustain large reef fish stocks, and that what is natural varies significantly amongst locations. Comparisons of biomass estimates derived from visual surveys with predicted biomass in the absence of humans indicated that total reef fish biomass was depleted by 61% to 69% at populated islands in the Mariana Archipelago; by 20% to 78% in the Main Hawaiian islands; and by 21% to 56% in American Samoa.

Assessing Coral Reefs on a Pacific-Wide Scale Using the Microbialization Score

The majority of the worlds coral reefs are in various stages of decline. While a suite of disturbances (overfishing, eutrophication, and global climate change) have been identified, the mechanism(s) of reef system decline remain elusive. Increased microbial and viral loading with higher percentages of opportunistic and specific microbial pathogens have been identified as potentially unifying features of coral reefs in decline. Due to their relative size and high per cell activity, a small change in microbial biomass may signal a large reallocation of available energy in an ecosystem; that is the microbialization of the coral reef. Our hypothesis was that human activities alter the energy budget of the reef system, specifically by altering the allocation of metabolic energy between microbes and macrobes. To determine if this is occurring on a regional scale, we calculated the basal metabolic rates for the fish and microbial communities at 99 sites on twenty-nine coral islands throughout the Pacific Ocean using previously established scaling relationships. From these metabolic rate predictions, we derived a new metric for assessing and comparing reef health called the microbialization score. The microbialization score represents the percentage of the combined fish and microbial predicted metabolic rate that is microbial. Our results demonstrate a strong positive correlation between reef microbialization scores and human impact. In contrast, microbialization scores did not significantly correlate with ocean net primary production, local chla concentrations, or the combined metabolic rate of the fish and microbial communities. These findings support the hypothesis that human activities are shifting energy to the microbes, at the expense of the macrobes. Regardless of oceanographic context, the microbialization score is a powerful metric for assessing the level of human impact a reef system is experiencing.

Length-Based Assessment of Coral Reef Fish Populations in the Main and Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

The coral reef fish community of Hawaii is composed of hundreds of species, supports a multimillion dollar fishing and tourism industry, and is of great cultural importance to the local population. However, a major stock assessment of Hawaiian coral reef fish populations has not yet been conducted. Here we used the robust indicator variable “average length in the exploited phase of the population (L¯)”, estimated from size composition data from commercial fisheries trip reports and fishery-independent diver surveys, to evaluate exploitation rates for 19 Hawaiian reef fishes. By and large, the average lengths obtained from diver surveys agreed well with those from commercial data. We used the estimated exploitation rates coupled with life history parameters synthesized from the literature to parameterize a numerical population model and generate stock sustainability metrics such as spawning potential ratios (SPR). We found good agreement between predicted average lengths in an unfished population (from our population model) and those observed from diver surveys in the largely unexploited Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Of 19 exploited reef fish species assessed in the main Hawaiian Islands, 9 had SPRs close to or below the 30% overfishing threshold. In general, longer-lived species such as surgeonfishes, the redlip parrotfish (Scarus rubroviolaceus), and the gray snapper (Aprion virescens) had the lowest SPRs, while short-lived species such as goatfishes and jacks, as well as two invasive species (Lutjanus kasmira and Cephalopholis argus), had SPRs above the 30% threshold.

Ecosystem monitoring for ecosystem‐based management: using a polycentric approach to balance information trade‐offs

Ecosystem monitoring for ecosystem-based management: using a polycentric approach to balance information trade-offs Adel Heenan*, Kelvin Gorospe, Ivor Williams, Arielle Levine, Paulo Maurin, Marc Nadon, Thomas Oliver, John Rooney, Molly Timmers, Supin Wongbusarakum and Russell Brainard Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of Hawai’i, M anoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA; NOAA Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, Honolulu, HI 96818, USA; Department of Geography, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, USA; and NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program (The Baldwin Group Inc.), Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA

Long-term monitoring of coral reef fish assemblages in the Western central pacific

Throughout the tropics, coral reef ecosystems, which are critically important to people, have been greatly altered by humans. Differentiating human impacts from natural drivers of ecosystem state is essential to effective management. Here we present a dataset from a large-scale monitoring program that surveys coral reef fish assemblages and habitats encompassing the bulk of the US-affiliated tropical Pacific, and spanning wide gradients in both natural drivers and human impact. Currently, this includes >5,500 surveys from 39 islands and atolls in Hawaii (including the main and Northwestern Hawaiian Islands) and affiliated geo-political regions of American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, and the Pacific Remote Islands Areas. The dataset spans 2010–2017, during which time, each region was visited at least every three years, and ~500–1,000 surveys performed annually. This standardised dataset is a powerful resource that can be used to understand how human, environmental and oceanographic conditions influence coral reef fish community structure and function, providing a basis for research to support effective management outcomes.

Stock assessment updates of the bottomfish management unit species of American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam in 2015 using data through 2013

In this report, we conduct a strict stock assessment update of the Bottomfish Management Unit Species (BMUS) in Guam, American Samoa, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands using the same base case production model as used in the previous stock assessment (Brodziak et al. 2012), but with an additional 3 years of catch and nominal CPUE as input data. A Bayesian statistical framework is applied to estimate parameters of a production model fit to a time series of annual CPUE statistics to provide direct estimates of parameter uncertainty for status determination. The surplus production model includes both process error in biomass production dynamics and observation error in the catch-per-unit effort data. Overall, the American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and the Guam bottomfish complexes were not overfished (overfished is defined as B<0.7*BMSY) and were not experiencing overfishing (overfishing is defined as H>HMSY) in 2013, the most recent year of the stock assessment estimates. We conducted stock projections for 2016 and 2017, which projected a range of hypothetical twoyear catches and calculated corresponding risks of overfishing. For the American Samoa BMUS complex, the 2016 catch level that would produce a 50% risk of overfishing in 2016 was 137 thousand pounds. For the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands BMUS complex, the 2016 catch level that would produce a 50% risk of overfishing in 2016 was 304 thousand pounds. For the Guam BMUS complex, the 2016 catch level that would produce a 50% risk of overfishing in 2016 was 82 thousand pounds. All of these catch values associated with a 50% risk of overfishing in 2016 are much higher than actual bottomfish landings in 2013 for American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam which were 23,630, 22,510, and 29,848 pounds, respectively.