Maria Cipollina

Reciprocal Trade Agreements in Gravity Models: A Meta-Analysis

The gravity model is a workhorse tool applicable in a wide range of empirical fields. It is regularly used to estimate the impact of reciprocal trade agreements (RTAs) on trade flows between partners. The studies report very different estimates since there is a significant difference in datasets, sample sizes, and independent variables. This paper combines, explains, and summarizes a large number of results using a meta-analysis approach. We provide pooled estimates, obtained from fixed and random effects models of the RTAs’ effect size on bilateral trade: the hypothesis that there is no effect of RTAs on trade is robustly rejected at standard significance levels. The information collected on each estimate allows us to test the sensitivity of the results to alternative specifications and differences in the control variables considered, as well as the impact of the publication selection process.

Analysing tourism stakeholders networks

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze the variety of relations existing in tourism networks, identified as complex and mutable entities, where a vast range of stakeholders coexist.Design/methodology/approach – After a deep review on stakeholder theory, the research applies techniques of network analysis to a case study. Specifically, the analysis focuses on 354 hospitality firms acting in Molise Region (Italy). Each operator was asked to judge the importance to collaborate with other stakeholders to enhance the effectiveness of their management and marketing activities. The answers highlight the degree of preference among stakeholders and the resulting information is the level of confidence in the network.Findings – Results confirm the importance of intensifying relationships between tourism companies themselves and between them and policy makers. It appears that public stakeholders are more important for both management and marketing activities than private sector, since they place a much hig...

The trade impact of European Union agricultural preferences

We assess the impact on agricultural trade of European Union (EU) trade policies, using a gravity model based on disaggregated trade flows from 161 developing countries (DCs) to 15 EU member countries. We use a sample selection framework to account for potential selection bias of positive trade flows and provide an explicit measure for relative preference margins. From a policy perspective, our results debunk some of the most widespread criticisms of preferential policies: EU preferences matter and have a positive impact on DCs agricultural exports at both the extensive and intensive margins, although with significant differences across sectors.

FDI and Growth: What Cross-Country Industry Data Say

We simulate the macroeconomic and welfare implications of different fiscal consolidation scenarios in Italy using a medium scale two-areas dynamic general equilibrium currency-union model. Differently from similar models, ours is rich in the terms of fiscal features. We assume distortionary taxes (on labor income, capital income and consumption) and welfare-enhancing public expenditure. We distinguish between public spending on final goods and services, public employment and transfers to households. The scenarios that we consider envisage a decreases in the public debt to GDP ratio of 10 percentage points in 5 years. Based on our simulations we find that: first, fiscal distortions are quantitatively significant; second, a consolidation strategy that reduces expenditure and simultaneously lowers tax rates has a positive effect on long-run GDP of 5% to 7% and on welfare of 4% to 7% of the initial levels, depending on the composition of the adjustment; third, consumption and investment are stable or grow on impact and along the path to the new steady state; finally, spillovers to the rest of the euro area are expansionary and sizeable both in the long run and along the transition.

Trade Impact of European Union Preferences

This chapter assesses the impact on trade of European Union (EU) trade policies, using a gravity model based on disaggregated trade flows from 169 Developing Countries (DC) to 25 EU member countries. It uses a sample selection framework to account for potential selection bias in positive trade flows and provides an explicit measure for relative preference margins. The results serve to debunk some of the most widespread criticisms of preferential policies: EU preferences matter, and have a positive impact on developing countries’ exports at the intensive margin, and an ambiguous impact at the extensive margin with significant differences across sectors.

European Union Preferential Margins: Measurement and Aggregation Issues

The main goal of this chapter is to define and measure the intensity of tariff preferences. Several definitions are feasible and have been used in the literature. Once the tariff margin is defined, it can be expressed in absolute or relative terms. These are not alternatives because they provide different information about trade policy. Nevertheless, however the tariff margin is defined and expressed, in the context of trade policy there are problems related to aggregation. Building on Anderson and Neary’s (Measuring the restrictiveness of international trade policy, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2005) work on theoretically grounded trade policy indexes, we define an aggregate measure (Mercantilistic Trade Preference Index – MTPI) of trade preferential margins. Because it focuses on export volumes, the MTPI enables a method of aggregation that is consistent with the main objective of preferential policies. We compute sectoral MTPI for European Union (EU) preferences granted to 167 exporters, to assess how preferential market access differs across sectors.

Trade Impact of European Union Preferential Policies: A Meta-Analysis of the Literature

The gravity model is used frequently to estimate the impact of European Union (EU) Preferential Trade Agreements (PTA) on trade flows. Because of differences in the datasets, sample sizes and independent variables employed, existing studies report very different estimates. This chapter reviews and analyses a large number of results using Meta-Analysis (MA) to provide pooled estimates of the effect of PTA on bilateral trade, based on fixed and random effects models. We test the estimation results for sensitivity to alternative specifications and different control variables. After filtering out potential biases, the MA confirms our expectations of a robust and positive effect of PTA.

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Performance in the Enlarged Europe: A Meta-Regression Analysis

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in 2011 increased in all major economic groups, developed, developing and transition economies (UNCTAD, 2012). Developing countries accounted for 45 per cent of global FDI inflows in 2011, of which East and South-East Asia accounted for almost half. Inflows to the transition economies of south-east Europe, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Georgia accounted for 6 per cent. In fact, the overall increase was driven by East, South-East Asia and Latin America. In 2011 FDI outflows to developed countries also grew strongly, reaching

A meta-analysis of the indirect impact of foreign direct investment in old and new EU member states: Understanding productivity spillovers

748 billion, up 21 per cent from 2010. FDI flows to Europe increased by 19 per cent, mainly owing to large cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) by foreign multinational corporations (MNCs).

Measuring Protection: Mission Impossible?

In this paper, we summarise, combine and explain recent findings from firm-level empirical literature focusing on the indirect impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic performance, measured as productivity, in the Enlarged Europe. We have reviewed 52 quantitative studies, released between 2000 and 2015 and codified 1,133 estimates. We run a regression of regressions which measures the strength of the FDI–productivity relationship. Taking advantage of large number of high-quality studies on FDI and its role in explaining the growth in firms’ productivity in Europe, we adopt recent meta-regression analysis methods—funnel asymmetry and precision estimate tests and precision-effect estimate with standard errors—to explain the heterogeneous impact of FDI. This paper assesses the country-specific impact of FDI on firms’ performance, after taking publication selection bias, econometric modelling and the individual studies’ characteristics fully into account. Our results show that on average FDI has a positive indirect impact on productivity. The impact is especially significant in selected European countries, and we interpret this as a sign of better absorptive capacities in those countries.