Maria Sharmina

What if negative emission technologies fail at scale? Implications of the Paris Agreement for big emitting nations

ABSTRACT A cumulative emissions approach is increasingly used to inform mitigation policy. However, there are different interpretations of what ‘2°C’ implies. Here it is argued that cost-optimization models, commonly used to inform policy, typically underplay the urgency of 2°C mitigation. The alignment within many scenarios of optimistic assumptions on negative emissions technologies (NETs), with implausibly early peak emission dates and incremental short-term mitigation, delivers outcomes commensurate with 2°C commitments. In contrast, considering equity and socio-technical barriers to change, suggests a more challenging short-term agenda. To understand these different interpretations, short-term CO2 trends of the largest CO2 emitters, are assessed in relation to a constrained CO2 budget, coupled with a ‘what if’ assumption that negative emissions technologies fail at scale. The outcomes raise profound questions around high-level framings of mitigation policy. The article concludes that applying even weak equity criteria, challenges the feasibility of maintaining a 50% chance of avoiding 2°C without urgent mitigation efforts in the short-term. This highlights a need for greater engagement with: (1) the equity dimension of the Paris Agreement, (2) the sensitivity of constrained carbon budgets to short-term trends and (3) the climate risks for society posed by an almost ubiquitous inclusion of NETs within 2°C scenarios. POLICY RELEVANCE Since the Paris meeting, there is increased awareness that most policy ‘solutions’ commensurate with 2°C include widespread deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). Yet much less is understood about that option’s feasibility, compared with near-term efforts to curb energy demand. Moreover, the many different ways in which key information is synthesized for policy makers, clouds the ability of policy makers to make informed decisions. This article presents an alternative approach to consider what the Paris Agreement implies, if NETs are unable to deliver more carbon sinks than sources. It illustrates the scale of the climate challenge for policy makers, particularly if the Agreement’s aim to address ‘equity’ is accounted for. Here it is argued that much more attention needs to be paid to what CO2 reductions can be achieved in the short-term, rather than taking a risk that could render the Paris Agreement’s policy goals unachievable.

Integrating Backcasting and Eco-Design for the Circular Economy: The BECE Framework

Summary The circular economy (CE) is essential for decoupling economic growth from resource consumption and environmental impacts. However, effective implementation requires a systemic change across supply chains, involving both technological and nontechnological innovations. Frameworks are beginning to emerge to foster CE thinking in organizations. However, literature review carried out as part of this research has revealed gaps in their ability to fulfil CE requirements. Furthermore, few frameworks provide support on how CE requirements may be implemented. To address these issues, this article presents a new framework, BECE (backcasting and eco-design for the circular economy), to ensure that businesses can implement CE requirements more readily. BECE empowers organizations to tackle the CE holistically by embedding the concept into corporate decision making and by bringing operational and systems thinking together, thus increasing the likelihood of successful implementation. The potential of the BECE framework was tested through a pilot workshop focusing on the development of a CE business model through redesign of products and supply chains. Using vacuum cleaners as an illustrative case study, several product design and supply-chain alternatives were identified, including the development of scenarios and action plans for their implementation at the business level. Although the case study focuses on a particular product, the BECE framework is generic and applicable across different products and business sectors.

Importance of non-CO2 emissions in carbon management

Background: GHG budgets highlight a need for urgency, yet analyses are often CO2-focused, with less attention paid to non-CO2. Results: In this paper, scenarios are used to explore non-CO2 drivers and barriers to their mitigation, drawing out implications for CO2 management. Results suggest that even optimistic technological and consumption-related developments lead to on-going increases in global N2O, largely to improve food security within a changing climate. This contrasts with existing analysis, where lower levels of N2O by 2050 are projected. Conclusions: As avoiding ‘2ｰC’ limits the emissions budget, constraints on reducing non-CO2 add pressure to energy system decarbonization. Overlooking how a changing climate and rising consumption restricts efforts to curb non-CO2 will result in policies aiming to avoid 2ｰC falling short of the mark.

How does social sustainability feature in studies of supply chain management? A review and research agenda

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine how social sustainability is considered in the study of supply chain management, thereby identifying key areas for future researchers to develop. Design/methodology/approach A systematic literature review of 109 studies is conducted. The papers have been analysed with a particular focus on their definition of social sustainability, research methods used, the central themes covered and the evolution of the debate including theories and the main findings. Findings Findings show that, first, researchers have thus far focused on principles for managing social change, developing measures for performance, identifying drivers and barriers, with few studies considering the social practices, particularly at the micro level and in the context of small and medium-sized enterprises. Second, findings also reveal that there is less consideration of the suppliers’, as opposed to the buyers’, perspective. Research limitations/implications This review focuses only on social sustainability within supply chain management, without considering the economic and environmental dimensions. Practical implications This review provides the key themes and areas for managers/practitioners to consider when implementing social sustainability in supply chains. It also provides insights into under-researched areas together with the need for future researchers to move beyond frameworks and develop more tools and instruments for measuring social performance in practice. Originality/value This paper is one of the few studies that consider the social dimension of sustainability exclusively within the context of supply chains, providing insights and implications for further research.

Russia's cumulative carbon budgets for a global 2°C target

Abstract Russia is the fifth highest emitter of carbon dioxide, having been in the top five for at least six decades. However, thus far no in-depth study has estimated Russias cumulative emissions in the context of the global 2°C constraint. This is despite the IPCC reiterating the importance of cumulative emissions. Translating the global 2°C temperature commitment into a meaningful national context, this paper derives and evaluates 2°C-compatible carbon budgets for Russia, based on a range of apportionments. The work contributes to the debate by providing a deeper analysis of the principles of allocating carbon emissions to Russia. This analysis demonstrates how, if Russia is to make a fair contribution to global emission reductions in line with 2°C, its 2011–2100 cumulative emissions should stay within 20-26 Gt CO2, commensurate with a 37–52% probability of exceeding 2°C. If Russia continues to emit carbon dioxide at current annual levels, this budget will be “spent” by the mid-2020s. The carbon budget estimated here for Russia appears technically feasible, if extremely challenging. Despite continuing to assert itself as a fossil fuel superpower, Russia has a wealth of opportunities for full and early decarbonization, including the potential to become a net exporter of renewable energy.

CO2 abatement goals for international shipping

ABSTRACT The Paris Agreement, which entered into force in 2016, sets the ambitious climate change mitigation goal of limiting the global temperature increase to below 2°C and ideally 1.5°C. This puts a severe constraint on the remaining global GHG emissions budget. While international shipping is also a contributor to anthropogenic GHG emissions, and CO2 in particular, it is not included in the Paris Agreement. This article discusses how a share of a global CO2 budget over the twenty-first century could be apportioned to international shipping, and, using a range of future trade scenarios, explores the requisite cuts to the CO2 intensity of shipping. The results demonstrate that, under a wide range of assumptions, existing short-term levers of efficiency must be urgently exploited to achieve mitigation commensurate with that required from the rest of the economy, with virtually full decarbonization of international shipping required as early as before mid-century. Key policy insights Regulatory action is key to ensuring the international shipping sector’s long-term sustainability. For the shipping industry to deliver mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement, virtually full decarbonization needs to be achieved. In the near term, immediate and rapid exploitation of available mitigation measures is of critical importance. Any delay in the transition will increase the risk of stranded assets, or diminish the chances of meeting the Paris Agreements temperature commitments.