Ruth Wood

Importance of non-CO2 emissions in carbon management

Background: GHG budgets highlight a need for urgency, yet analyses are often CO2-focused, with less attention paid to non-CO2. Results: In this paper, scenarios are used to explore non-CO2 drivers and barriers to their mitigation, drawing out implications for CO2 management. Results suggest that even optimistic technological and consumption-related developments lead to on-going increases in global N2O, largely to improve food security within a changing climate. This contrasts with existing analysis, where lower levels of N2O by 2050 are projected. Conclusions: As avoiding ‘2ｰC’ limits the emissions budget, constraints on reducing non-CO2 add pressure to energy system decarbonization. Overlooking how a changing climate and rising consumption restricts efforts to curb non-CO2 will result in policies aiming to avoid 2ｰC falling short of the mark.

A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally,

New Energy Technologies in the Media: a Case Study of Carbon Capture and Storage

2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.

CHAPTER 4:Climate Change Impacts of Shale Gas Production

The deployment of low-carbon energy supply technologies worldwide has sparked a debate about how to balance local environmental protection and our need for reliable low carbon energy. This books brings together ten years of research conducted by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and uses a range of case studies from carbon capture and storage to on-shore wind farms to explore the complex nature of disputes between a wide variety of stakeholder groups. Topics covered include: •the importance of context •the relationship between risk and trust •sense of place •role of the media An invaluable resource for researchers and readers in local or national government, industry or community groups who wish to deepen their understanding of controversy around low carbon technology and how to overcome it.

UK Climate Projections Science Report: Climate Change projections

The climate change impacts of shale gas are considered from a number of perspectives. When normalised per unit of energy produced, greenhouse gas emissions from production and combustion appear to be comparable to, or marginally higher than conventional sources of natural gas, with direct CO2 from combustion dominating. Substantial uncertainties in such estimates remain, and recent atmospheric studies of methane emissions suggest that on-site measurements and emissions inventories from the US oil and gas industry may be significant underestimates. Shale gas is not a low-carbon energy source, and in the absence of an effective climate regime new gas reserves could have a substantial impact on cumulative CO2 emissions and hence the extent of climate change. The quantity of emissions that will likely cause 2 °C of mean surface temperature rise is very low relative to current emissions and trends, with a restricted time period within which it is prudent to burn natural gas. The position of shale gas as a ‘transition fuel’ and the relevance of comparison with coal as a fuel source rely upon the assumptions that: (1) it completely displaces the use of an alternative more-carbon-intensive fuel; (2) growth in energy demand does not outpace carbon intensity savings; and (3) it does not jeopardise the development of low- and zero-carbon energy systems. It is not clear that these criteria are currently being met. Without a global carbon cap, the unconstrained use of shale gas is inconsistent with the carbon budgets necessary to avoid dangerous climate change.