Mariana Batista

When is statistical significance not significant

The article provides a non-technical introduction to the p value statistics. Its main purpose is to help researchers make sense of the appropriate role of the p value statistics in empirical political science research. On methodological grounds, we use replication, simulations and observational data to show when statistical significance is not significant. We argue that: (1) scholars must always graphically analyze their data before interpreting the p value; (2) it is pointless to estimate the p value for non-random samples; (3) the p value is highly affected by the sample size, and (4) it is pointless to estimate the p value when dealing with data on population.

O poder no Executivo: uma análise do papel da Presidência e dos Ministérios no presidencialismo de coalizão brasileiro (1995-2010)

What is the role of the presidency and ministries in the legislative production of the Executive Branch? From a transactional approach to the relationship between the president and ministers we seek, through the identification of the authorship of the legislative initiatives of the Executive, evaluate the factors that influence the president to delegate legislative decisions to the ministries or centralize decisions in the presidency. The hypotheses tested using a logistic model for rare events is that the increase in ideological distance, the number of ministers involved in the decision and the institutionalization of the presidency increases the probability of centralization, while the increase in the legislative strength of the parties of the ministers involved decreases the probability of centralization. The results indicate that these factors matter to understand the process of legislative formulation within the Executive and the choice that the president does.

Taking Portfolios Difference Seriously: A Composite Measure Based on Policy, Office, and Budget in Brazil

Portfolio allocation is the keystone of coalition government analysis. It constitutes the fundamental payoff in coalition formation, providing access to government decision-making. However, are all portfolios the same or have the same weight in government decision-making? This research note presents a measure of portfolio differences based on three dimensions: policy, office, and budget. Factor analysis is used to generate a composite indicator of portfolio importance in Brazil from 1999 to 2014. Results show that portfolios vary significantly in importance in each of the three dimensions, meaning that a ministry of little importance in one dimension can be very important in another. With policy, office, and budget combined, the most important ministry is the Ministry of Finance and the least important is the Ministry of Fishery. This indicator is the first step to summarize the differences between ministries that can be used to inform empirical analysis about coalition formation and governance in Brazil.

Incentivos da dinâmica política sobre a corrupção: reeleição, competitividade e coalizões nos municípios brasileiros

Why do politicians practice corrupt acts? The dynamics of political competition has been presented as a major explanatory factor of corruption. To understand the effects of political competition is, nonetheless, necessary to analyze the different incentives arising from the competition dynamics. In order to bring about this analysis, thearticle examines the explanatory power of four specific characteristics of political competition: the competitiveness of elections, the strength of the opposition, the mechanism of reelection, and the structure of coalitions. Such analysis is based on reports, made public by the CGU, providing information about corruption in a random exam of Brazilian municipalities. The results indicate that the mechanism of reelection and the margin of victory in the elections contribute to the explanation of corruption.

O Poder no Executivo: explicações no presidencialismo, parlamentarismo e presidencialismo de coalizão

Como a literatura vem analisando o Poder Executivo nos diferentes regimes politicos? A partir da diferenca institucional basica entre presidencialismo e parlamentarismo pode-se identificar dois conjuntos de contribuicoes principais para o entendimento do funcionamento do Executivo em democracias: a literatura sobre a presidencia americana e as discussoes sobre os governos de coalizao no parlamentarismo europeu. O que os dois conjuntos de teorias tem em comum e a preocupacao com a politica intra-executivo. Esta literatura e analisada, identificando as principais questoes, instituicoes, comportamentos e variaveis enfatizadas. Como resultado tem-se a sistematizacao e comparacao dos principais argumentos sobre o funcionamento interno do Executivo nao so no presidencialismo e no parlamentarismo, mas tambem a contribuicao para a explicacao do caso especifico do presidencialismo de coalizao.