Marianne H. Gillam

Competing risks survival analysis applied to data from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry

Background and purpose The Kaplan-Meier (KM) method is often used in the analysis of arthroplasty registry data to estimate the probability of revision after a primary procedure. In the presence of a competing risk such as death, KM is known to overestimate the probability of revision. We investigated the degree to which the risk of revision is overestimated in registry data. Patients and methods We compared KM estimates of risk of revision with the cumulative incidence function (CIF), which takes account of death as a competing risk. We considered revision by (1) prosthesis type in subjects aged 75–84 years with fractured neck of femur (FNOF), (2) cement use in monoblock prostheses for FNOF, and (3) age group in patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA) for osteoarthritis (OA). Results In 5,802 subjects aged 75–84 years with a monoblock prosthesis for FNOF, the estimated risk of revision at 5 years was 6.3% by KM and 4.3% by CIF, a relative difference (RD) of 46%. In 9,821 subjects of all ages receiving an Austin Moore (non-cemented) prosthesis for FNOF, the RD at 5 years was 52% and for 3,116 subjects with a Thompson (cemented) prosthesis, the RD was 79%. In 44,365 subjects with a THA for OA who were less than 70 years old, the RD was just 1.4%; for 47,430 subjects > 70 years of age, the RD was 4.6% at 5 years. Interpretation The Kaplan-Meier method substantially overestimated the risk of revision compared to estimates using competing risk methods when the risk of death was high. The bias increased with time as the incidence of the competing risk of death increased. Registries should adopt methods of analysis appropriate to the nature of their data.

Different competing risks models applied to data from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry

Purpose Here we describe some available statistical models and illustrate their use for analysis of arthroplasty registry data in the presence of the competing risk of death, when the influence of covariates on the revision rate may be different to the influence on the probability (that is, risk) of the occurrence of revision. Patients and methods Records of 12,525 patients aged 75–84 years who had received hemiarthroplasty for fractured neck of femur were obtained from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry. The covariates whose effects we investigated were: age, sex, type of prosthesis, and type of fixation (cementless or cemented). Extensions of competing risk regression models were implemented, allowing the effects of some covariates to vary with time. Results The revision rate was significantly higher for patients with unipolar than bipolar prostheses (HR = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.01–1.89) or with monoblock than bipolar prostheses (HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.08–1.94). It was significantly higher for the younger age group (75–79 years) than for the older one (80–84 years) (HR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.05–1.56) and higher for males than for females (HR = 1.37, 95% CI: 1.09–1.71). The probability of revision, after correction for the competing risk of death, was only significantly higher for unipolar prostheses than for bipolar prostheses, and higher for the younger age group. The effect of fixation type varied with time; initially, there was a higher probability of revision for cementless prostheses than for cemented prostheses, which disappeared after approximately 1.5 years. Interpretation When accounting for the competing risk of death, the covariates type of prosthesis and sex influenced the rate of revision differently to the probability of revision. We advocate the use of appropriate analysis tools in the presence of competing risks and when covariates have time-dependent effects.

Diversity in collaborative research communities: a multicultural, multidisciplinary thesis writing group in public health

Writing groups for doctoral students are generally agreed to provide valuable learning spaces for Ph.D. candidates. Here an academic developer and the eight members of a writing group formed in a Discipline of Public Health provide an account of their experiences of collaborating in a multicultural, multidisciplinary thesis writing group. We consider the benefits of belonging to such a group for Ph.D. students who are operating in a research climate in which disciplinary boundaries are blurring and where an increasing number of doctoral projects are interdisciplinary in nature; in which both academic staff and students come from enormously diverse cultural and language backgrounds; and in which teamwork, networking and collaboration are prized but not always proactively facilitated. We argue that doctoral writing groups comprising students from diverse cultural and disciplinary backgrounds can be of significant value for postgraduates who wish to collaborate on their own academic development to improve their research writing and communication skills; at the same time, such collaborative work effectively builds an inclusive, dynamic research community.

Multi-state models and arthroplasty histories after unilateral total hip arthroplasties: introducing the Summary Notation for Arthroplasty Histories.

Background and purpose An increasing number of patients have several joint replacement procedures during their lifetime. We investigated the use and suitability of multi-state model techniques in providing a more comprehensive analysis and description of complex arthroplasty histories held in arthroplasty registries than are allowed for with traditional survival methods. Patients and methods We obtained data from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry on patients (n = 84,759) who had undergone a total hip arthroplasty for osteoarthritis in the period 2002–2008. We set up a multi-state model where patients were followed from their first recorded arthroplasty to several possible states: revision of first arthroplasty, either a hip or knee as second arthroplasty, revision of the second arthroplasty, and death. The Summary Notation for Arthroplasty Histories (SNAH) was developed in order to help to manage and analyze this type of data. Results At the end of the study period, 12% of the 84,759 patients had received a second hip, 3 times as many as had received a knee. The estimated probabilities of having received a second arthroplasty decreased with age. Males had a lower transition rate for receiving a second arthroplasty, but a higher mortality rate. Interpretation Multi-state models in combination with SNAH codes are well suited to the management and analysis of arthroplasty registry data on patients who experience multiple joint procedures over time. We found differences in the progression of joint replacement procedures after the initial total hip arthroplasty regarding type of joint, age, and sex.

Heart failure after conventional metal-on-metal hip replacements

Background and purpose — It is unclear whether metal particles and ions produced by mechanical wear and corrosion of hip prostheses with metal-on-metal (MoM) bearings have systemic adverse effects on health. We compared the risk of heart failure in patients with conventional MoM total hip arthroplasty (THA) and in those with metal-on-polyethylene (MoP) THA. Patients and methods — We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from the Australian Government Department of Veterans’ Affairs health claims database on patients who received conventional THA for osteoarthritis between 2004 and 2012. The MoM THAs were classified into groups: Articular Surface Replacement (ASR) XL Acetabular System, other large-head (LH) (> 32 mm) MoM, and small-head (SH) (≤ 32 mm) MoM. The primary outcome was hospitalization for heart failure after THA. Results — 4,019 patients with no history of heart failure were included (56% women). Men with an ASR XL THA had a higher rate of hospitalization for heart failure than men with MoP THA (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.2, 95% CI: 1.6–6.5). No statistically significant difference in the rate of heart failure was found with the other LH MoM or SH MoM compared to MoP in men. There was no statistically significant difference in heart failure rate between exposure groups in women. Interpretation — An association between ASR XL and hospitalization for heart failure was found in men. While causality between ASR XL and heart failure could not be established in this study, it highlights an urgent need for further studies to investigate the possibility of systemic effects associated with MoM THA.

Average duration of treatment with antipsychotics among concession card holders in Australia

Objective: To analyse average treatment duration with antipsychotics reimbursed for concession card holders under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme; the proportion of initial prescribing by general practitioners, psychiatrists and other physician; and the trend in drug choice in Australia. Method: Based on a representative 10% sample of patients receiving Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme prescriptions since 2005, antipsychotics redeemed by concession card holders in the period from 2010 to 2013 were analysed. A 5-year baseline period was used to exclude prevalent users from incident users. Treatment duration was estimated using the epidemiological equation: prevalence/incidence = average duration. Results: The overall average treatment duration was 3.0 years, ranging from 1.5 years in patients aged 75 years and older to more than 4 years among patients aged 25–64 years. The most commonly used antipsychotics were olanzapine, risperidone and quetiapine, with average duration of 2.9, 2.1 and 1.7 years, respectively. Amisulpride was used longest with an average duration of 3.7 years. Quetiapine is currently the most prescribed antipsychotic and the main antipsychotic prescribed by psychiatrists to new users. The increased prescribing of quetiapine among general practitioners explains the rapid increase in the overall use of quetiapine. General practitioners initiated therapy in about 70% of cases, while psychiatrists and other physicians in about 15% each. In children younger than 15 years of age, paediatricians initiated such treatment in 47%. Conclusion: General practitioners both initiate and maintain treatment with antipsychotics for most adults, while paediatricians mainly begin such treatment in children. The substantial increase in use of quetiapine among general practitioners, along with the short treatment duration for quetiapine, strengthens a concern about antipsychotics increasingly used for less severe disorders. Increased collaboration between paediatricians and psychiatrists regarding the youngest and between general practitioners and psychiatrists or geriatricians regarding adults and older patients seems required.

Average duration of treatment with antidepressants among concession card holders in Australia.

Objective: To analyse the average treatment duration with antidepressants that are reimbursed for concession card holders under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme in Australia. Method: This pharmacoepidemiological study was based on a representative 10% sample of patients receiving Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme prescriptions. Antidepressants redeemed by concession card holders in the period from 2010 to 2013 were analysed. A 5-year baseline period was used to exclude prevalent users from incident users. Estimation of treatment duration was based on the epidemiological equation: prevalence/incidence = average duration. The mean value for prevalence and incidence over the studied period was used in the equation. Results: The number of prevalent and incident users increased from 90,475 to 103,305 and from 25,006 to 26,289, respectively. The epidemiological average treatment duration in the period was about 4 years. When considered by age-bands, average treatment duration was 2 years in patients under 24 years, 3 years in patients 35 to 44 years and up to 5 years in the 55 to 64 year age group. Of new users of antidepressants reimbursed under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, 86% received their first prescription from general practitioners, 4.3% from psychiatrists and 9.7% from other physicians. Conclusion: While recommendations have underlined the importance of giving antidepressants for a sufficient period of time, the results from this study show that it is as important to remind general practitioners to review patients on antidepressant treatment regularly, and try to cease drug treatment when timely.

The association between mental health nursing and hospital admissions for people with serious mental illness: a protocol for a systematic review

BackgroundRelapse in individuals with severe mental illness (SMI) is a frequent occurrence and can add considerably to the burden of disease. As such, relapse prevention is an essential therapeutic outcome for people with SMI. Mental health nurses (MHNs) are well placed to support individuals with SMI and to prevent relapse; notwithstanding, there has been no synthesis of the evidence to date to determine whether MHNs prevent relapse in this population.MethodsElectronic databases will be systemically searched for observational studies and clinical trials that report the association between mental health nursing and the hospitalisation of persons living with an SMI. The search will be supplemented by reference checking and a search of the grey literature. The primary outcome of interest will be hospital admission rate. Screening of articles, data extraction and critical appraisal will be undertaken by two reviewers, independently, with a third reviewer consulted should disagreement occur between reviewers. The quality of studies will be assessed using the Risk Of Bias In Non-randomised Studies - of Interventions (ROBINS-I) tool and the Cochrane Collaboration risk of bias tool. Depending on the number of studies and level of heterogeneity, the evidence may be synthesised using meta-analysis or narrative synthesis.DiscussionThis review will explore for the first time the clinical potential of mental health nursing in preventing relapse in persons with SMI. The findings of this review will serve to inform future research and education in this area. The evidence may also help inform future policy, including decisions regarding future mental health workforce development and planning.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO CRD42017058694.

A narrative review of problems with medicines use in people with dementia

ABSTRACT Introduction: People with dementia may be particularly susceptible to medication-related problems for various reasons. They include progressive cognitive decline, high sensitivity to the effect of medications on cognition and memory, and increased likelihood of comorbidities. Areas covered: This paper aimed to review current literature on the frequency and the types of medication-related problems, and their contribution to hospital admission in people with dementia. Literature searches were conducted using key search terms of dementia and medication-related problems. Studies investigating any medication-related problems in people with dementia or cognitive impairment were included. Expert opinion: Previous research showed a high prevalence of medication-related problems in people with dementia. However, no single category of medication-related problems was reported consistently as the most frequent type across studies. The available studies also showed that medication-related hospitalization was common among people with dementia. These findings underline the need for effective medication management services to reduce the risk of these problems in people with dementia and cognitive impairment. Further work is required to characterize medication-related problems comprehensively in this vulnerable patient group across settings of care. Future research should take a holistic approach in the identification of medication-related problems.

Rehospitalizations for complications and mortality following pacemaker implantation: A retrospective cohort study in an older population

A large number of older people receive pacemakers each year but broad population‐based studies that describe complications following pacemaker implantation in this population are lacking.