Marija Bockarjova

Thinking about Imbalances in Post-catastrophe Economies: An Input-Output based Proposition

Abstract In this paper we focus on the consequences of a major catastrophe for a modern economy, where ‘major’ means that a significant part of the economys productive capacity is lost. In the aftermath of the catastrophe, authorities have to address a great number of issues. We show, using basic principles, that input–output methodology offers a flexible set of tools to address three fundamental issues: (1) obtaining a systematic insight in the imbalances that exist in the non-affected area after the catastrophe, (2) determining the nature of these imbalances and the way they affect options in the recovery process, and (3) introducing the elements of a cost-benefit analysis in the context of prevention and precautionary policies. Our approach strongly supports the need for extensive contingency planning in the presence of major natural hazards. A numerical example accompanies the various steps of the exercise.

Diffusion Dynamics of Electric Cars and Adaptive Policy: Towards an Empirical Based Simulation

In this paper we apply the updated consumat approach to the case of diffusion of electric cars. We will discuss how data from a large sample can be used to parameterize a number of main behavioural drivers, and how these relate to behavioural processes. At this stage we explain how the data fit in the framework, and whereas a model is currently under development, first simulation results are to be available first during the ESSA conference.

Adoption of Electric Vehicle in the Netherlands - A Stated Choice Experiment

In this paper, we apply a dynamic innovation diffusion framework to model adoption of full electric vehicles where we explicitly distinguish three major phases of adoption: introduction, growth and maturity. We combine this approach with an SP study to elicit individual preferences for conventional, hybrid and full electric vehicles. We apply a nested logit model to estimate the preferences for EVs based on the total costs of ownership approach that includes monetary and non-monetary costs of owing a vehicle. With negative estimates of WTP for hybrid vehicles (of about €900 on a yearly basis), our results suggest abolishment of subsidization of hybrid vehicles as they potentially crowd out EV adoption. Besides, EVs need to be subsidized on average at €2,000 per year, and this amount is decreasing in the process of vehicle adoption. Time costs associated with rapid charging are a substantial hindrance to EV adoption with average value of time of €63 per hour, increasing for each subsequent consumer segment from €48 to €122 per hour. Environmental costs of CO2 reductions are valued far above the market average at €160 per ton, but determine EV choices only at a later stage of adoption. Finally, towing potential is valued on average at €540 per year and it is about the same for all consumer segments throughout the adoption phases. Policy implications are discussed involving a mix of structural and monetary incentives.

Scale, Scope and Cognition: Context Analysis of Multiple Stated Choice Experiments on the Values of Life and Limb

In this paper we use data from an SP study on flood safety in the Netherlands, and elicit individual preferences for reduction of risk to life and limb. We perform context analysis to test the robustness of fatality risk valuation throughout choice experiments. The main interest of this paper is VOSL sensitivity to the valuation of correlated risks (scope effect). Besides, we explore the role of cognition on the stability of valuation across choice experiments using age and education. We pool data from multiple choice experiments and apply nested and mixed logit models in our analysis. We confirm statistically significant sensitivity to scope, comparing VOSL estimates for the test group in a choice experiment where correlated risks were present (risks of fatality, injury and evacuation) to an experiment where only fatality risk is valued. We find that the origin of differences in VOSL valuations across the choice experiments lies in differences in age and educational attainment, and may therefore be related to cognitive abilities of respondents. In particular, we conclude that higher VOSL sensitivity to scope is most prominently present among respondents of senior age (65 and older) and respondents without college education. This finding has important implications for discrete choice modeling and the use of obtained values in cost-benefit analyses.

Long Term Care, Wealth and Housing

We study long-term care demand in the Netherlands for a sample of elderly Dutch households using detailed administrative data. Long-term care in the Netherlands is provided by a public health care system that is generous in comparison to that in many other countries, but offers few possibilities for differentiation. Moving to a nursing home is generally postponed as long as possible because of the loss of privacy involved, while use of care at home increases. We test three hypotheses: i) wealthier people are better able to postpone a move to a nursing home, ii) those who own the house in which they live stay there longer when health deteriorates, and iii) those living in a house that is especially suitable for elderly are better able to postpone a move to nursing home. Results of our analyses confirm hypothesis i) but reject or do not find substantial evidence to confirm ii) and iii).