Marisa Goulden

Adaptation to climate change in international river basins in Africa: a review.

Abstract This paper reviews current knowledge of the potential impacts of climate change on water resources in Africa and the possible limits, barriers or opportunities for adaptation to climate change in internationally-shared river basins. Africa faces significant challenges to water resources management in the form of high variability and regional scarcity, set within the context of generally weak institutional capacity. Management is further challenged by the transboundary nature of many of its river basins. Climate change, despite uncertainty about the detail of its impacts on water resources, is likely to exacerbate many of these challenges. River basins, and the riparian states that share them, differ in their capacities to adapt. Without appropriate cooperation adaptation may be limited and uneven. Further research to examine the factors and processes that are important for cooperation to lead to positive adaptation outcomes and the increased adaptive capacity of water management institutions is suggested.

Rainfall variability in East Africa: implications for natural resources management and livelihoods

This note examines the effects of climate variability on natural–resources management in East Africa. The bimodal rainfall regime in much of East Africa brings rainy seasons from March to May and October to December with greater interannual variability from October to December. We discuss the impacts of rainfall extremes in 1961 and 1997 and explore three examples of natural–resources management in the context of rainfall variability: inland fisheries in East and southern Africa; fluctuations in the level of Lake Victoria; and lake–shore communities around Lake Kyoga in Uganda. The discussion reflects the complexity of linkages between climate, environment and society in the region and highlights implications for natural–resources management. These range from benefits due to improved seasonal rainfall forecasting to reduce the damage of extremes, to improved understanding of existing climate–society interactions to provide insights into the regions vulnerability and adaptive capacity in relation to future climate change.

Limits to Resilience from Livelihood Diversification and Social Capital in Lake Social–Ecological Systems

Diversity of both social networks and livelihood sources plays a central role in determining the sustainability of natural resource use and resilience of social–ecological systems, not least in resource-dependent economies. Yet the types of social capital and characteristics of diversity are not well understood. Here we examine social capital and livelihood diversification strategies in dynamic lakeshore social–ecological systems in Uganda adapting to climate variability and change. Water and land use data are used to explain lake system variations and lakeshore peoples livelihood responses in terms of adaptive cycles and examine how system resilience changes over time in response to climatic and other stresses. Interview and household survey data are used to explain household adaptations to climate variability based on livelihood diversification and social capital and to determine which adaptations were dominant during different stages of adaptive cycles. Results show that households adapt to climate variability using concurrent, spatial, and temporal diversification of livelihoods and by drawing on social capital, but these sources of resilience are not sufficient in all circumstances. The availability of adaptation options varies according to the different stages in the adaptive cycle of the lakeshores dynamic, coupled human–ecological system; to the degree and nature of the climatic stress; and to differences in household access to assets and adaptation options. This implies a need to maintain multiple sources of resilience for use in times of system collapse or crisis.

Hydrological modelling of water allocation, ecosystem services and poverty alleviation in the Pongola floodplain, South Africa

The Pongola River Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (PRESPA) project quantified the economic benefits accuring to different livelihood sectors from the water resources of the Pongola floodplain, South Africa. The floodplain carries a diverse economy and ecology which is supported by flood events that once occured naturally but are now regulated by an upstream dam. PRESPA modelled the eco-hydrology which underpins various ecosystem services to determine how this might be managed to alleviate poverty. A model was used to quantify the economic value of the available water, especially the value accruing to the poor. This model linked to three development scenarios to explore trade-offs and outcomes of (1) a status quo, ‘unstructured’ economy; (2) a structured diverse economy; and (3) a structured ‘single sector’ agricultural economy. This model gives decision makers a measure of where water is best used in terms of poverty alleviation and enables them to examine future economic and ecosystem trajectories. In summary, poor households on the floodplain currently have a diversity of income and food sources, making them less vulnerable to economic and climatic shocks, while there is a trend towards intensive agriculture which may deliver higher returns but with greater costs and increased vulnerability.

Evolving Discourses on Water Resource Management and Climate Change in the Equatorial Nile Basin

Transboundary water resources management in the Equatorial Nile Basin (EQNB) is a politically contested issue. There is a growing body of literature examining water-related discourses which identifies the ability of powerful actors and institutions to influence policy. Concern about the effects of future climate change has featured strongly in research on the Nile River for several decades. It is therefore timely to consider whether and how these concerns are reflected in regional policy documents and policy discourse. This study analyzes discourse framings of water resources management and climate change in policy documents (27, published between 2001 and 2013) and as elicited in interviews (38) with water managers in the EQNB. Three main discursive framings are identified which are present in the discourses on both subjects: a problem-oriented environmental risk frame and two solution-oriented frames, on governance and infrastructure development. Climate change discourse only emerges as a common topic around 2007. The framings found in the water resources management discourse and the climate change discourse are almost identical, suggesting that discursive framings were adopted from the former for use in the latter. We infer that the climate change discourse may have offered a less politically sensitive route to circumvent political sensitivities around water allocation and distribution between riparian countries in the EQNB. However, the climate change discourse does not offer a lasting solution to the more fundamental political dispute over water allocation. Moreover, in cases where the climate change discourse is subsumed within a water resources management discourse, there are dangers that it will not fully address the needs of effective adaptation.