Marje Prank

Airborne olive pollen counts are not representative of exposure to the major olive allergen Ole e 1

Pollen is routinely monitored, but it is unknown whether pollen counts represent allergen exposure. We therefore simultaneously determined olive pollen and Ole e 1 in ambient air in Córdoba, Spain, and Évora, Portugal, using Hirst‐type traps for pollen and high‐volume cascade impactors for allergen.

Variation of the group 5 grass pollen allergen content of airborne pollen in relation to geographic location and time in season

BACKGROUND Allergies to grass pollen are the number one cause of outdoor hay fever. The human immune system reacts with symptoms to allergen from pollen. OBJECTIVE We investigated the natural variability in release of the major group 5 allergen from grass pollen across Europe. METHODS Airborne pollen and allergens were simultaneously collected daily with a volumetric spore trap and a high-volume cascade impactor at 10 sites across Europe for 3 consecutive years. Group 5 allergen levels were determined with a Phl p 5-specific ELISA in 2 fractions of ambient air: particulate matter of greater than 10 μm in diameter and particulate matter greater than 2.5 μm and less than 10 μm in diameter. Mediator release by ambient air was determined in FcεRI-humanized basophils. The origin of pollen was modeled and condensed to pollen potency maps. RESULTS On average, grass pollen released 2.3 pg of Phl p 5 per pollen. Allergen release per pollen (potency) varied substantially, ranging from less than 1 to 9 pg of Phl p 5 per pollen (5% to 95% percentile). The main variation was locally day to day. Average potency maps across Europe varied between years. Mediator release from basophilic granulocytes correlated better with allergen levels per cubic meter (r(2) = 0.80, P < .001) than with pollen grains per cubic meter (r(2) = 0.61, P < .001). In addition, pollen released different amounts of allergen in the non-pollen-bearing fraction of ambient air, depending on humidity. CONCLUSION Across Europe, the same amount of pollen released substantially different amounts of group 5 grass pollen allergen. This variation in allergen release is in addition to variations in pollen counts. Molecular aerobiology (ie, determining allergen in ambient air) might be a valuable addition to pollen counting.

Evaluation and error apportionment of an ensemble of atmospheric chemistry transport modeling systems : Multivariable temporal and spatial breakdown

Through the comparison of several regional-scale chemistry transport modeling systems that simulate meteorology and air quality over the European and North American continents, this study aims at (i) apportioning error to the responsible processes using timescale analysis, (ii) helping to detect causes of model error, and (iii) identifying the processes and temporal scales most urgently requiring dedicated investigations. The analysis is conducted within the framework of the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and tackles model performance gauging through measurement-to-model comparison, error decomposition, and time series analysis of the models biases for several fields (ozone, CO, SO2, NO, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, wind speed, and temperature). The operational metrics (magnitude of the error, sign of the bias, associativity) provide an overallsense of model strengths and deficiencies, while apportioning the error to its constituent parts (bias, variance, and covariance) can help assess the nature and quality of the error. Each of the error components is analyzed independently and apportioned to specific processes based on the corresponding timescale (long scale, synoptic, diurnal, and intraday) using the error apportionment technique devised in the former phases of AQMEII. The application of the error apportionment method to the AQMEII Phase 3 simulations provides several key insights. In addition to reaffirming the strong impact of model inputs (emission and boundary conditions) and poor representation of the stable boundary layer on model bias, results also highlighted the high interdependencies among meteorological and chemical variables, as well as among their errors. This indicates that the evaluation of air quality model performance for individual pollutants needs to be supported by complementary analysis of meteorological fields and chemical precursors to provide results that are more insightful from a model development perspective. This will require evaluaion methods that are able to frame the impact on error of processes, conditions, and fluxes at the surface. For example, error due to emission and boundary conditions is dominant for primary species (CO, particulate matter (PM)), while errors due to meteorology and chemistry are most relevant to secondary species, such as ozone. Some further aspects emerged whose interpretation requires additional consideration, such as the uniformity of the synoptic error being region- and model-independent, observed for several pollutants; the source of unexplained variance for the diurnal component; and the type of error caused by deposition and at which scale.

First comparison of symptom data with allergen content (Bet v 1 and Phl p 5 measurements) and pollen data from four European regions during 2009-2011.

BACKGROUND The level of symptoms in pollen allergy sufferers and users of the Patients Hayfever Diary (PHD), does not directly reflect the total amount of pollen in the air. It is necessary to explain the symptom load and thus the development of allergic symptoms and to determine which environmental factors, besides the pollen load, influence variables. It seems reasonable to suspect allergen content because the amount of allergen varies throughout seasons and regions and is not always correlated with the total pollen amount. METHODS Data on the allergen content of ambient air (Bet v 1 and Phl p 5) from 2009 until 2011 was used to compare the respective pollen and symptom loads for study regions in Austria, Germany, France and Finland. RESULTS Our findings suggest that allergen amount (Bet v 1/Phl p 5) has a strong but regionally dependent impact on the symptom load of pollen allergy sufferers. Peak symptom loads can be traced with peak allergen loads. The influence of other important aeroallergens should also be assessed during the pollen season. CONCLUSION Allergen concentrations have an impact on pollen allergy sufferers although not as clear as assumed previously. The pattern of pollen load and major allergen content distribution does not directly explain the symptom load pattern, although significant positive correlations were found. Thus, monitoring of symptoms via voluntary crowdsourcing should be considered for future pollen and symptom forecasts in order to support pollen allergy sufferers.

Mortality due to Vegetation-Fire Originated PM2.5 Exposure in Europe - Assessment for the Years 2005 and 2008.

Background: Vegetation fires can release substantial quantities of fine particles (PM2.5), which are harmful to health. The fire smoke may be transported over long distances and can cause adverse health effects over wide areas. Objective: We aimed to assess annual mortality attributable to short-term exposures to vegetation fire–originated PM2.5 in different regions of Europe. Methods: PM2.5 emissions from vegetation fires in Europe in 2005 and 2008 were evaluated based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data on fire radiative power. Atmospheric transport of the emissions was modeled using the System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) chemical transport model. Mortality impacts were estimated for 27 European countries based on a) modeled daily PM2.5 concentrations and b) population data, both presented in a 50 × 50 km2 spatial grid; c) an exposure–response function for short-term PM2.5 exposure and daily nonaccidental mortality; and d) country-level data for background mortality risk. Results: In the 27 countries overall, an estimated 1,483 and 1,080 premature deaths were attributable to the vegetation fire–originated PM2.5 in 2005 and 2008, respectively. Estimated impacts were highest in southern and eastern Europe. However, all countries were affected by fire-originated PM2.5, and even the lower concentrations in western and northern Europe contributed substantially (~ 30%) to the overall estimate of attributable mortality. Conclusions: Our assessment suggests that air pollution caused by PM2.5 released from vegetation fires is a notable risk factor for public health in Europe. Moreover, the risk can be expected to increase in the future as climate change proceeds. This factor should be taken into consideration when evaluating the overall health and socioeconomic impacts of these fires. Citation: Kollanus V, Prank M, Gens A, Soares J, Vira J, Kukkonen J, Sofiev M, Salonen RO, Lanki T. 2017. Mortality due to vegetation fire–originated PM2.5 exposure in Europe—assessment for the years 2005 and 2008. Environ Health Perspect 125:30–37; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP194

Cleaner fuels for ships provide public health benefits with climate tradeoffs

We evaluate public health and climate impacts of low-sulphur fuels in global shipping. Using high-resolution emissions inventories, integrated atmospheric models, and health risk functions, we assess ship-related PM2.5 pollution impacts in 2020 with and without the use of low-sulphur fuels. Cleaner marine fuels will reduce ship-related premature mortality and morbidity by 34 and 54%, respectively, representing a ~ 2.6% global reduction in PM2.5 cardiovascular and lung cancer deaths and a ~3.6% global reduction in childhood asthma. Despite these reductions, low-sulphur marine fuels will still account for ~250k deaths and ~6.4 M childhood asthma cases annually, and more stringent standards beyond 2020 may provide additional health benefits. Lower sulphur fuels also reduce radiative cooling from ship aerosols by ~80%, equating to a ~3% increase in current estimates of total anthropogenic forcing. Therefore, stronger international shipping policies may need to achieve climate and health targets by jointly reducing greenhouse gases and air pollution.Aerosol pollution from shipping contributes to cooling but also leads to premature mortality and morbidity. Here the authors combine emission inventories, atmospheric models and health risk functions to show how cleaner marine fuels will reduce premature deaths and childhood asthma but results in larger warming.

Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3

The impact of air pollution on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and the United States (US) for the year 2010 are modeled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the frame of the third phase of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3). The modeled surface concentrations of O3, CO, SO2 and PM2.5 are used as input to the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA) system to calculate the resulting health impacts and the associated external costs from each individual model. Along with a base case simulation, additional runs were performed introducing 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions both globally and regionally in Europe, North America and east Asia, as defined by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP2). Health impacts estimated by using concentration inputs from different chemistry–transport models (CTMs) to the EVA system can vary up to a factor of 3 in Europe (12 models) and the United States (3 models). In Europe, the multi-model mean total number of premature deaths (acute and chronic) is calculated to be 414 000, while in the US, it is estimated to be 160 000, in agreement with previous global and regional studies. The economic valuation of these health impacts is calculated to be EUR 300 billion and 145 billion in Europe and the US, respectively. A subset of models that produce the smallest error compared to the surface observations at each time step against an all-model mean ensemble results in increase of health impacts by up to 30 % in Europe, while in the US, the optimal ensemble mean led to a decrease in the calculated health impacts by ~ 11 %. A total of 54 000 and 27 500 premature deaths can be avoided by a 20 % reduction of global anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the US, respectively. A 20 % reduction of North American anthropogenic emissions avoids a total of ~ 1000 premature deaths in Europe and 25 000 total premature deaths in the US. A 20 % decrease of anthropogenic emissions within the European source region avoids a total of 47 000 premature deaths in Europe. Reducing the east Asian anthropogenic emissions by 20 % avoids ~ 2000 total premature deaths in the US. These results show that the domestic anthropogenic emissions make the largest impacts on premature deaths on a continental scale, while foreign sources make a minor contribution to adverse impacts of air pollution.

Modeled deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in Europe estimated by 14 air quality model systems: evaluation, effects of changes in emissions and implications for habitat protection

The evaluation and intercomparison of air quality models is key to reducing model errors and uncertainty. The projects AQMEII3 and EURODELTA-Trends, in the framework of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants and the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, respectively (both task forces under the UNECE Convention on the Long Range Transport of Air Pollution, LTRAP), have brought together various regional air quality models to analyze their performance in terms of air concentrations and wet deposition, as well as to address other specific objectives. This paper jointly examines the results from both project communities by intercomparing and evaluating the deposition estimates of reduced and oxidized nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) in Europe simulated by 14 air quality model systems for the year 2010. An accurate estimate of deposition is key to an accurate simulation of atmospheric concentrations. In addition, deposition fluxes are increasingly being used to estimate ecological impacts. It is therefore important to know by how much model results differ and how well they agree with observed values, at least when comparison with observations is possible, such as in the case of wet deposition. This study reveals a large variability between the wet deposition estimates of the models, with some performing acceptably (according to previously defined criteria) and others underestimating wet deposition rates. For dry deposition, there are also considerable differences between the model estimates. An ensemble of the models with the best performance for N wet deposition was made and used to explore the implications of N deposition in the conservation of protected European habitats. Exceedances of empirical critical loads were calculated for the most common habitats at a resolution of 100 × 100 m2 within the Natura 2000 network, and the habitats with the largest areas showing exceedances are determined. Moreover, simulations with reduced emissions in selected source areas indicated a fairly linear relationship between reductions in emissions and changes in the deposition rates of N and S. An approximate 20 % reduction in N and S deposition in Europe is found when emissions at a global scale are reduced by the same amount. European emissions are by far the main contributor to deposition in Europe, whereas the reduction in deposition due to a decrease in emissions in North America is very small and confined to the western part of the domain. Reductions in European emissions led to substantial decreases in the protected habitat areas with critical load exceedances (halving the exceeded area for certain habitats), whereas no change was found, on average, when reducing North American emissions in terms of average values per habitat.

A Long-Term Re-Analysis of Atmospheric Composition and Air Quality

The paper presents a global-to-mesoscale model re-analysis of atmospheric composition for the period of 1980–2014 and the first outcome of the evaluation. The goals of the re-analysis were to assess the multi-decade evolution of atmospheric composition and air quality at several spatial scales and to evaluate the performance of SILAM dispersion model in this large-scale exercise. The dataset covered troposphere and the stratosphere, main anthropogenic pollutants and had a special line for natural constituents, such as sea salt and pollen. This dataset forms the starting point for episodic and meso-to-local-scale studies, which will refine its predictions.

Modelling Assessment of Atmospheric Composition and Air Quality in Eastern and Southern Asia

Current chapter outlines the model-based assessment of air pollution in Eastern and Southern Asia. The chemistry transport model SILAM, which covers the main sources of the air pollutants in the region, was applied to evaluate their influence on spatial and temporal characteristics of the regional pollution pattern. We showed that, apart from the anthropogenic sources, air pollution in several parts of Eastern and Southern Asia is dominated by other sources, such as desert dust and vegetation fires. In particular, South-East Asia and Eastern Russia are heavily impacted by the biomass burning smoke, largely from agriculture fires. Fire-induced pollution is also episodically significant in several provinces of China.