Mikhail Sofiev

Aerosol analysis and forecast in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System: Forward modeling

[1] This paper presents the aerosol modeling now part of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). It includes new prognostic variables for the mass of sea salt, dust, organic matter and black carbon, and sulphate aerosols, interactive with both the dynamics and the physics of the model. It details the various parameterizations used in the IFS to account for the presence of tropospheric aerosols. Details are given of the various formulations and data sets for the sources of the different aerosols and of the parameterizations describing their sinks. Comparisons of monthly mean and daily aerosol quantities like optical depths against satellite and surface observations are presented. The capability of the forecast model to simulate aerosol events is illustrated through comparisons of dust plume events. The ECMWF IFS provides a good description of the horizontal distribution and temporal variability of the main aerosol types. The forecastonly model described here generally gives the total aerosol optical depth within 0.12 of the relevant observations and can therefore provide the background trajectory information for the aerosol assimilation system described in part 2 of this paper.

Chemical composition of fine particles in fresh smoke plumes from boreal wild-land fires in Europe.

A series of smoke plumes was detected in Helsinki, Finland, during a one-month-lasting period in August 2006. The smoke plumes originated from wildfires close to Finland, and they were short-term and had a high particulate matter (PM) concentration. Physical and chemical properties of fine particles in those smokes were characterised by a wide range of real-time measurements that enabled the examination of individual plume events. Concurrently PM(1) filter samples were collected and analysed off-line. Satellite observations employing MODIS sensor on board of NASA EOS Terra satellite with the dispersion model SILAM and the Fire Assimilation System were used for evaluation of the emission fluxes from wildfires. The model predicted well the timing of the plumes but the predicted PM concentrations differed from the observed. The measurements showed that the major growth in PM concentration was caused by submicrometer particles consisting mainly of particulate organic matter (POM). POM had not totally oxidised during the transport based on the low WSOC-to-OC ratio. The fresh plumes were compared to another major smoke episode that was observed in Helsinki during April-May 2006. The duration and the source areas of the two episode periods differed. The episode in April-May was a period of nearly constantly upraised level of long-range transported PM and it was composed of aged particles when arriving in Helsinki. The two episodes had differences also in the chemical composition of PM. The mass concentrations of biomass burning tracers (levoglucosan, potassium, and oxalate) increased during both the episodes but different concentration levels of elemental carbon and potassium indicated that the episodes differed in the form of burning as well as in the burning material. In spring dry crop residue and hay from the previous season were burnt whereas in August smokes from smouldering and incomplete burning of fresh vegetation were detected.

A numerical model of birch pollen emission and dispersion in the atmosphere. Description of the emission module

A birch pollen emission model is described and its main features are discussed. The development of the model is based on a double-threshold temperature sum model that describes the propagation of the flowering season and naturally links to the thermal time models to predict the onset and duration of flowering. For the flowering season, the emission model considers ambient humidity and precipitation rate, both of which suppress the pollen release, as well as wind speed and turbulence intensity, which promote it. These dependencies are qualitatively evaluated using the aerobiological observations. Reflecting the probabilistic character of the flowering of an individual tree in a population, the model introduces relaxation functions at the start and end of the season. The physical basis of the suggested birch pollen emission model is compared with another comprehensive emission module reported in literature. The emission model has been implemented in the SILAM dispersion modelling system, the results of which are evaluated in a companion paper.

Airborne olive pollen counts are not representative of exposure to the major olive allergen Ole e 1

Pollen is routinely monitored, but it is unknown whether pollen counts represent allergen exposure. We therefore simultaneously determined olive pollen and Ole e 1 in ambient air in Córdoba, Spain, and Évora, Portugal, using Hirst‐type traps for pollen and high‐volume cascade impactors for allergen.

The Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership: An Example of Science Applied to Societal Needs

Abstract Northern Eurasia, the largest land-mass in the northern extratropics, accounts for ∼20% of the global land area. However, little is known about how the biogeochemical cycles, energy and water cycles, and human activities specific to this carbon-rich, cold region interact with global climate. A major concern is that changes in the distribution of land-based life, as well as its interactions with the environment, may lead to a self-reinforcing cycle of accelerated regional and global warming. With this as its motivation, the Northern Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) was formed in 2004 to better understand and quantify feedbacks between northern Eurasian and global climates. The first group of NEESPI projects has mostly focused on assembling regional databases, organizing improved environmental monitoring of the region, and studying individual environmental processes. That was a starting point to addressing emerging challenges in the region related to rapidly and simultaneously...

Variation of the group 5 grass pollen allergen content of airborne pollen in relation to geographic location and time in season

BACKGROUND Allergies to grass pollen are the number one cause of outdoor hay fever. The human immune system reacts with symptoms to allergen from pollen. OBJECTIVE We investigated the natural variability in release of the major group 5 allergen from grass pollen across Europe. METHODS Airborne pollen and allergens were simultaneously collected daily with a volumetric spore trap and a high-volume cascade impactor at 10 sites across Europe for 3 consecutive years. Group 5 allergen levels were determined with a Phl p 5-specific ELISA in 2 fractions of ambient air: particulate matter of greater than 10 μm in diameter and particulate matter greater than 2.5 μm and less than 10 μm in diameter. Mediator release by ambient air was determined in FcεRI-humanized basophils. The origin of pollen was modeled and condensed to pollen potency maps. RESULTS On average, grass pollen released 2.3 pg of Phl p 5 per pollen. Allergen release per pollen (potency) varied substantially, ranging from less than 1 to 9 pg of Phl p 5 per pollen (5% to 95% percentile). The main variation was locally day to day. Average potency maps across Europe varied between years. Mediator release from basophilic granulocytes correlated better with allergen levels per cubic meter (r(2) = 0.80, P < .001) than with pollen grains per cubic meter (r(2) = 0.61, P < .001). In addition, pollen released different amounts of allergen in the non-pollen-bearing fraction of ambient air, depending on humidity. CONCLUSION Across Europe, the same amount of pollen released substantially different amounts of group 5 grass pollen allergen. This variation in allergen release is in addition to variations in pollen counts. Molecular aerobiology (ie, determining allergen in ambient air) might be a valuable addition to pollen counting.

A numerical model of birch pollen emission and dispersion in the atmosphere. Model evaluation and sensitivity analysis

An evaluation of performance of the System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) in application to birch pollen dispersion is presented. The system is described in a companion paper whereas the current study evaluates the model sensitivity to details of the pollen emission module parameterisation and to the meteorological input data. The most important parameters are highlighted. The reference year considered for the analysis is 2006. It is shown that the model is capable of predicting about two-thirds of allergenic alerts, with the odds ratio exceeding 12 for the best setup. Several other statistics corroborate with these estimations. Low-pollen concentration days are also predicted correctly in more than two-thirds of cases. The model experiences certain difficulties only with intermediate pollen concentrations. It is demonstrated that the most important input parameter is the near-surface temperature, the bias of which can easily jeopardise the results. The model sensitivity to random fluctuations of temperature is much lower. Other parameters important at various stages of pollen development, release, and dispersion are precipitation and ambient humidity, as well as wind direction.

Extended resistance analogy for construction of the vertical diffusion scheme for dispersion models

[1] A new physical analogy for the discrete approximation of the vertical diffusion equation is presented. It is based on the resistor-capacitor chain and incorporates the classical resistance approach to dry deposition simulation in a natural way. It is shown that in the simplest case the finite chain of resistors and capacitors is equivalent to a secondorder discrete representation of the diffusion equation resulting from the K theory closure. However, the scheme provides several features, which either cannot be obtained from straightforward discretization at all, or would require a sophisticated construction for their justification and realization. The examples discussed include a thick model layer with a highly variable vertical diffusion coefficient and an internal emission source, interaction with a chemical transformation unit, and spectral features of the model’s vertical structure. INDEX TERMS: 0368 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Troposphere—constituent transport and chemistry; 3210 Mathematical Geophysics: Modeling; 3230 Mathematical Geophysics: Numerical solutions; 3337 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Numerical modeling and data assimilation; 0345 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Pollution—urban and regional (0305);

Factors determining the robustness of AOT40 and other ozone exposure indices

The robustness problem is considered for mathematical indices that describe the adverse effects of vegetation exposure to ozone. It is shown that some of them may demonstrate infinitely high sensitivity of the exposure estimate to small variations of ozone concentrations or internal parameters of specific functional. In particular, for the accumulated exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb (AOT40) index such conditions are not extraordinary, but rather describe quite often situations in remote areas in Northern Europe. Taking into account inevitable uncertainties in both calculated and observed ozone concentrations, a high sensitivity of ozone impact indices results in an instability of the exposure estimates and creates problems in their use. Theoretical consideration of the problem enabled to formulate the necessary and sufficient conditions for the limited sensitivity of a time-integrating index. An example of a modified AOT formulation fulfilling the obtained criteria and hence not experiencing the sensitivity problem is considered.

A model for the evaluation of long-term airborne pollution transport at regional and continental scales

Abstract The paper contains the description of numerical model of the airborne pollution transport developed by a scientific team of M. Galperin. During several years the model was used for the calculations in Meteorological Synthesizing Centre – East, within the scope of Co-operational Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-Range Transmission of air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP). The paper presents the extensive description of the current version of the model and outlines the results of its quality assurance. The model is based on an original Eulerian advection scheme with variable time step, which can be classified as a “pseudo-Lagrangian” scheme. Vertical concentration profiles are parameterized by truncated Gaussian function with dynamic parameters calculated at every model time step. The model includes two types of chemistry and deposition units: acid compounds and ammonia, and heavy metals carried with aerosol particles. One of the model advantages is the ability to make the evaluation of source–receptor pollution exchange for substances with non-linear atmospheric chemistry and deposition. The model evaluation was carried out by the comparison of multi-annual calculated concentrations with measured values for several acidifying substances.