Mark Stafford Smith

Rethinking adaptation for a 4 ◦ C world

With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation, it is increasingly likely that the world will experience 4°C and more of global warming. In such a world, adaptation decisions that have long lead times or that have implications playing out over many decades become more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming of 4°C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2°C; it will be a more substantial, continuous and transformative process. However, a variety of psychological, social and institutional barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with the danger of immobilizing decision-makers. In this paper, we show how complexity and uncertainty can be reduced by a systematic approach to categorizing the interactions between decision lifetime, the type of uncertainty in the relevant drivers of change and the nature of adaptation response options. We synthesize a number of issues previously raised in the literature to link the categories of interactions to a variety of risk-management strategies and tactics. Such application could help to break down some barriers to adaptation and both simplify and better target adaptation decision-making. The approach needs to be tested and adopted rapidly.

Incorporating ecological and evolutionary processes into continental‐scale conservation planning

Systematic conservation planning research has focused on designing systems of conservation areas that efficiently protect a comprehensive and representative set of species and habitats. Recently, there has been an emphasis on improving the adequacy of conservation area design to promote the persistence and future generation of biodiversity. Few studies have explored incorporating ecological and evolutionary processes into conservation planning assessments. Biodiversity in Australia is maintained and generated by numerous ecological and evolutionary processes at various spatial and temporal scales. We accommodated ecological and evolutionary processes in four ways: (1) using sub-catchments as planning units to facilitate the protection of the integrity and function of ecosystem processes occurring on a sub-catchment scale; (2) targeting one type of ecological refugia, drought refugia, which are critical for the persistence of many species during widespread drought; (3) targeting one type of evolutionary refugia which are important for maintaining and generating unique biota during long-term climatic changes; and (4) preferentially grouping priority areas along vegetated waterways to account for the importance of connected waterways and associated riparian areas in maintaining processes. We identified drought refugia, areas of relatively high and regular herbage production in arid and semiarid Australia, from estimates of gross primary productivity derived from satellite data. In this paper, we combined the novel incorporation of these processes with a more traditional framework of efficiently representing a comprehensive sample of biodiversity to identify spatial priorities across Australia. We explored the trade-offs between economic costs, representation targets, and connectivity. Priority areas that considered ecological and evolutionary processes were more connected along vegetated waterways and were identified for a small increase in economic cost. Priority areas for conservation investment are more likely to have long-term benefits to biodiversity if ecological and evolutionary processes are considered in their identification.

The 'desert syndrome' - causally-linked factors that characterise outback Australia

The desert knowledge community has been motivated by the assertion that outback Australia is characterised by a set of features that are not individually unique, but which together cause it to function in ways that are fundamentally different to other physical and social environments. This paper sets out to appraise this assertion. It documents the evidence for the individual features – (i) climate variability at various scales in space and time (climate variability), (ii) widespread low and patchy primary productivity (scarce resources), (iii) sparse, mobile and patchy human population (sparse population), (iv) distant markets and decision-making (remoteness), (v) further perceived unpredictability in markets, labour and policy (social variability), (vi) limited research knowledge and persistent traditional and local knowledge (local knowledge), and (vii) particular types of people, culture and institutions (cultural differences). It then assesses whether there is evidence for the hypothesis that these features are causally linked to act as a consistent syndrome. This can only be partially confirmed as yet, but, if true, implies that management and policy for the region must recognise that the causal links are unlikely to be easily broken. The key consequence for desert people is that they should put more time into planning and managing for their apparently careless treatment by the environment and bureaucracy, and less time railing against it, because it will not go away. The key consequence for sympathetic outsiders is that there are great opportunities to create a policy context in which desert innovation can thrive in response to the ‘desert syndrome’.

Planetary Stewardship in an Urbanizing World: Beyond City Limits

Cities are rapidly increasing in importance as a major factor shaping the Earth system, and therefore, must take corresponding responsibility. With currently over half the world’s population, cities are supported by resources originating from primarily rural regions often located around the world far distant from the urban loci of use. The sustainability of a city can no longer be considered in isolation from the sustainability of human and natural resources it uses from proximal or distant regions, or the combined resource use and impacts of cities globally. The world’s multiple and complex environmental and social challenges require interconnected solutions and coordinated governance approaches to planetary stewardship. We suggest that a key component of planetary stewardship is a global system of cities that develop sustainable processes and policies in concert with its non-urban areas. The potential for cities to cooperate as a system and with rural connectivity could increase their capacity to effect change and foster stewardship at the planetary scale and also increase their resource security.

Climate and desertification: looking at an old problem through new lenses

Global poverty, defined in almost any way, is disproportionately concentrated in the arid, semiarid, and dry subhumid regions – the drylands – of the world. We suggest that the intrinsic biophysical features of these environments, interacting with some social systems that are now no longer appropriate for the changing environment, lead to widespread situations where people living in such areas are trapped in a downward spiral of environmental degradation and loss of well-being. Externally driven changes in both the social and physical environment, ranging from trade rules to global climate change, contribute to this syndrome. The resultant destabilization of regional climates, ecosystems, hydrological systems, and the social fabric has consequences for neighboring lands as well as the global community. A more holistic set of interventions, that engages both local and global actors, is needed to reverse these negative trends.

An integrated framework for sustainable development goals

The United Nations (UN) Rio+20 summit committed nations to develop a set of universal sustainable development goals (SDGs) to build on the millennium development goals (MDGs) set to expire in 2015. Research now indicates that humanitys impact on Earths life support system is so great that further global environmental change risks undermining long-term prosperity and poverty eradication goals. Socioeconomic development and global sustainability are often posed as being in conflict because of tradeoffs between a growing world population, as well as higher standards of living, and managing the effects of production and consumption on the global environment. We have established a framework for an evidence-based architecture for new goals and targets. Building on six SDGs, which integrate development and environmental considerations, we developed a comprehensive framework of goals and associated targets, which demonstrate that it is possible, and necessary, to develop integrated targets relating to food, energy, water, and ecosystem services goals; thus providing a neutral evidence-based approach to support SDG target discussions. Global analyses, using an integrated global target equation, are close to providing indicators for these targets. Alongside development-only targets and environment-only targets, these integrated targets would ensure that synergies are maximized and trade-offs are managed in the implementation of SDGs.

Constraints and opportunities in applying seasonal climate forecasts in agriculture

Climate variability has an enormous impact on agricultural productivity, rural livelihoods, and economics at farm, regional, and national scales. An every-day challenge facing farmers is to make management decisions in the face of this climate variability. Being able to minimise losses in droughts and take advantage of favourable seasons is the promise of seasonal climate forecasts. The criteria for their adoption depends on what variables are forecast, their accuracy, the likely economic and/or natural resource benefits and how well they are communicated. In reviewing how current seasonal climate forecasts meet these criteria, it is clear that they offer considerable potential to buffer the effects of climate variability in agriculture, particularly in regions that have high levels of inter-annual rainfall variability and are strongly influenced by El Nino and La Nina events. However, the current skill, lead time, relevance to agricultural decisions, and communication techniques are not well enough advanced and/or integrated to lead to widespread confidence and adoption by farmers. The current challenges are to continue to improve forecast reliability and to better communicate the probabilistic outputs of seasonal climate forecasts to decision makers.

Simulation of Grazing Strategies for Beef Production in North-East Queensland

A simulation study was conducted to compare diverse grazing strategies for steers grazing open woodlands in northeast Queensland. Simulations included a wide range of possible stocking rates and pasture utilisation levels using 108 years (1889–1996) of daily climate data for Charters Towers. Five strategies were compared in terms of steer liveweight gain per ha, risk of weight loss, pasture availability, frequency of burning and soil loss. The strategies included constant stocking, stocking in response to available feed, and stocking in response to predicted future feed availability based on a climate forecast. For strategies achieving an average annual liveweight gain per head of about 100 kg, the simulation studies indicated that a responsive stocking rate strategy in June using a forecast of the next year’s pasture growth would increase liveweight gain per ha by about 10%, reduce the risk of liveweight loss by 57%, reduce risk of low pasture yield, but would slightly increase the risk of soil loss (4%). Maximum LWG/ha was achieved at high utilisation rates (> 35%). However, at such high levels of utilisation burning was achieved in less than 10% of years and soil loss was 30–40% more than at levels of utilisation regarded as safe (≈20%). The simulations highlighted the potential value of achieving in June, the skill from seasonal forecasting that is now available in November using average SOI in the Aug-Oct period as the indicator of season type. Assumptions in the model development are outlined and future work required is discussed. Despite the complexity of the simulation analysis, it is concluded that there is a trade-off between production and environmental damage, and that improved forecasting may improve production and/or reduce damage.

From Oceans to Farms: The Value of a Novel Statistical Climate Forecast for Agricultural Management

The economic value of seasonal climate forecasting is assessed using a whole-of-chain analysis. The entire system, from sea surface temperature (SST) through pasture growth and animal production to economic and resource outcomes, is examined. A novel statistical forecast method is developed using the partial least squares spatial correlation technique with near-global SST. This method permits forecasts to be tailored for particular regions and industries. The method is used to forecast plant growth days rather than rainfall. Forecast skill is measured by performing a series of retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) over the previous century. The hindcasts are cross-validated to guard against the possibility of artificial skill, so there is no skill at predicting random time series. The hindcast skill is shown to be a good estimator of the true forecast skill obtained when only data from previous years are used in developing the forecast. Forecasts of plant growth, reduced to three categories, are used in several agricultural examples in Australia. For the northeast Queensland grazing industry, the economic value of this forecast is shown to be greater than that of a Southern Oscillation index (SOI) based forecast and to match or exceed the value of a “perfect” category rainfall forecast. Reasons for the latter surprising result are given. Resource degradation, in this case measured by soil loss, is shown to remain insignificant despite increasing production from the land. Two further examples in Queensland, one for the cotton industry and one for wheat, are illustrated in less depth. The value of a forecast is again shown to match or exceed that obtained using the SOI, although further investigation of the decision-making responses to forecasts is needed to extract the maximum benefit for these industries.

The 'viability' and resilience of communities and settlements in desert Australia

There is a continuing policy debate about whether it is possible to have sustainable small settlements in outback regions of Australia, where there is low and variable primary production and a sparse and mobile population. This debate is focused largely on Aboriginal settlements, but applies equally to all desert dwellers. In this contribution, we review the sources of economic flows through settlements occupied by different communities with common livelihood sources, whether based on mining, grazing, tourism, cultural resources, welfare or services, concluding that most desert livelihoods depend directly or indirectly on temporally variable inputs. Individual remote settlements tend to be dominated by one such ‘community of livelihood’, and differ in nature according to the source of that livelihood. These create types of settlement and service aspirations which are alien to more densely settled regions. Settlement ‘viability’ is a measure of the short-term balance between aspirations for services (technical, social, but also for livelihoods and well being) and the costs of fulfilling these aspirations, and consequently is not a simple on/off switch – the community can adjust both its aspirations and the cost factors involved in meeting them. We define a resilient settlement as one that is viable in the long term in the face of its variable inputs. Thus, we determine that the concepts of settlement viability and resilience must be analysed differently according to the strategy adopted by different resident communities. In particular, Aboriginal (and pastoral) communities are particularly dependent on social and natural capital, yet these are not monitored. The whole analysis emphasises the importance of taking a demand- rather than supply-driven approach to services in desert settlements. Our conclusion is that, if top-down solutions continue to be imposed without appreciating the fundamental drivers of settlement in desert regions, then those solutions will continue to be partial, and ineffective in the long term.