Obaid Younossi

Systems Engineering and Program Management. Trends and Costs for Aircraft and Guided Weapons Programs

Abstract : Sound cost estimates are essential to developing good budgets and policy decisions. Some recent RAND studies have looked at estimating techniques for the nonrecurring and recurring flyaway costs of military airframes and engines. This study extends the analysis into what are termed below-the-line costs. Below-the-line costs include costs for such items as system test and evaluation, data, special test equipment and tooling, training operational site activation, industrial facilities, initial spares and repair parts and systems engineering and program management. These costs are not directly associated with the development or the production of the hardware end item. Nevertheless, they are important cost elements that are necessary for delivery of the complete end item to the government.

Titanium: Industrial Base, Price Trends, and Technology Initiatives

Abstract : Titanium accounts for a significant portion of the structural weight of many aircraft. Its high strength-to-weight ratio, high strength at high temperatures, corrosion resistance, and thermal stability make it ideal for airframe structures. However, in recent years a combination of multiple factors has caused a major spike in titanium prices that is expected to significantly influence the acquisition costs of future aircraft. This monograph examines the titanium industrial base, titanium production technology, and the factors underlying price fluctuations in the titanium market to assess their implications for the production cost of future airframes. The authors also suggest how the Department of Defense might mitigate the economic risks involved in the titanium market and reduce the cost of raw materials used in military airframes. In contrast with existing studies, which mainly focus on aircraft demand cycles in analyzing titanium price fluctuations, the monograph highlights the role of supply-side drivers, Chinas impact on the titanium market through cross-market substitution effect, the significance of industrial demand, and the increase in spot market transactions.

Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? A Quantitative Assessment of Completed and Ongoing Programs

Abstract : Cost growth in DoD acquisition programs has been a long-standing concern of senior policymakers and members of Congress. In recent decades, there have been numerous attempts to rein in this growth. Some changes involve reforms to the acquisition process, while others entail legislation. The RAND Corporation has a long history of studying cost growth in defense acquisition, with research reaching back to the 1950s.

Why Has the Cost of Navy Ships Risen? A Macroscopic Examination of the Trends in U.S. Naval Ship Costs Over the Past Several Decades

Abstract : Over the past four decades, the growth of U.S. Navy ship costs has exceeded the rate of inflation. This cost escalation concerns many in the Navy and the government. The real growth in Navy ship costs means that ships are becoming more expensive and outstripping the Navys ability to pay for them. Given current budget constraints, the Navy is unlikely to see an increase in its shipbuilding budget. Therefore, unless some way is found to get more out of a fixed shipbuilding budget, ship cost escalation means that the size of the Navy will inevitably shrink. In fact, by some estimates, even boosting the shipbuilding budget from

F-22A Multiyear Procurement Program. An Assessment of Cost Savings

10 billion annually to

Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs

12 billion would only help the Navy achieve a fleet of 260 ships by the year 2035 rather than the nearly 290 it now has (CBO, 2005). To better understand the magnitude of ship cost escalation and its implications, the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations asked the RAND Corporation to explore several questions. These include the magnitude of cost escalation, how ship cost escalation compares with other areas of the economy and other weapon systems, the sources of cost escalation, and what might be done to reduce or minimize ship cost escalation.

Military Jet Engine Acquisition: Technology Basics and Cost-Estimating Methodology

Abstract : Buying defense weapon systems under multiyear contracts rather than a series of single-year contracts can save costs because contractors can buy materials in more economic quantities, schedule workers and facilities more efficiently, and reduce the burden of preparing multiple proposals. The U.S. Air Force is in the process of awarding multiyear contracts for 60 F-22A aircraft over three years. Congress wants to assure itself that the proposed contract will yield the promised savings and asked RAND for an independent review of the estimated savings. Researchers found that a multiyear procurement of three lots of F-22A fighters would save an estimated

Impossible Certainty: Cost Risk Analysis for Air Force Systems

411 million-about 4.5 percent of the total contract value. They were able to trace 70 percent of the

Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth: Analysis of 35 Major Defense Acquisition Programs

411 million to substantiated savings estimates identified by the contractors. Examining the issue of multiyear savings using several approaches produces a consistent range of results, indicating that the savings attributed to the multiyear contract by the contractors appear to be reasonable.