Masayoshi Tokunaga

Cancer incidence in atomic bomb survivors. Part II: Solid tumors, 1958-1987.

This report presents, for the first time, comprehensive data on the incidence of solid cancer and risk estimates for A-bomb survivors in the extended Life Span Study (LSS-E85) cohort. Among 79,972 individuals, 8613 first primary solid cancers were diagnosed between 1958 and 1987. As part of the standard registration process of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki tumor registries, cancer cases occurring among members of the LSS-E85 cohort were identified using a computer linkage system supplemented by manual searches. Special efforts were made to ensure complete case ascertainment, data quality and data consistency in the two cities. For all sites combined, 75% of the cancers were verified histologically, 6% were diagnosed by direct observation, 8% were based on a clinical diagnosis, and 12.6% were ascertained by death certificate only. A standard set of analyses was carried out for each of the organs and organ systems considered. Depending on the cancer site, Dosimetry System 1986 (DS86) organ or kerma doses were used for computing risk estimates. Analyses were based on a general excess relative risk model (the background rate times one plus the excess relative risk). Analyses carried out for each site involved fitting the background model with no dose effect, a linear dose-response model with no effect modifiers, a linear-quadratic dose-response model with no effect modifiers, and a series of linear dose-response models that included each of the covariates (sex, age at exposure, time since exposure, attained age and city) individually as effect modifiers. Because the tumor registries ascertain cancers in the registry catchment areas only, an adjustment was made for the effects of migration. In agreement with prior LSS findings, a statistically significant excess risk for all solid cancers was demonstrated [excess relative risk at 1 Sv (ERR1Sv) = 0.63; excess absolute risk (EAR) per 10(4) person-year sievert (PY Sv) = 29.7]. For cancers of the stomach (ERR1SV = 0.32), colon (ERR1SV = 0.72), lung (ERR1SV = 0.95), breast (ERR1SV = 1.59), ovary (ERR1SV = 0.99), urinary bladder (ERR1SV = 1.02) and thyroid (ERR1SV = 1.15), significant radiation associations were observed. There was some indication of an increase in tumors of the neural tissue (excluding the brain) among persons exposed to the bombs before age 20. For the first time, radiation has been associated with liver (ERR1SV = 0.49) and nonmelanoma skin (ERR1SV = 1.0) cancer incidence in the LSS cohort. The present analysis also strengthened earlier findings, based on a smaller number of cases, of an effect of A-bomb radiation on salivary gland cancer.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Incidence of female breast cancer among atomic bomb survivors, 1950-1985

An incidence survey among atomic bomb survivors identified 807 breast cancer cases, and 20 second breast cancers. As in earlier surveys of the Life Span Study population, a strongly linear radiation dose response was found, with the highest dose-specific excess relative risk (ERR) among survivors under 20 years old at the time of the bombings. Sixty-eight of the cases were under 10 years old at exposure, strengthening earlier reports of a marked excess risk associated with exposure during infancy and childhood. A much lower, but marginally significant, dose response was seen among women exposed at 40 years and older. It was not possible, however, to discriminate statistically between age at exposure and age at observation for risk as the more important determinant of ERR per unit dose. A 13-fold ERR at 1 Sv was found for breast cancer occurring before age 35, compared to a 2-fold excess after age 35, among survivors exposed before age 20. This a posteriori finding, based on 27 exposed, known-dose, early-onset cases, suggests the possible existence of a susceptible genetic subgroup. Further studies, involving family histories of cancer and investigations at the molecular level, are suggested to determine whether such a subgroup exists.

Salivary gland tumors among atomic bomb survivors, 1950-1987.

Malignant and benign tumors of the salivary glands have been associated with exposure to ionizing radiation from various sources, including the atomic bombings in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. However, questions remain unanswered regarding the nature and size of the risk and specific types of tumors involved.

Cancer Incidence in Atomic Bomb Survivors. Part I: Use of the Tumor Registries in Hiroshima and Nagasaki for Incidence Studies

More than 30 years ago, population-based tumor registries were established in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This report, the first of a series of papers on cancer incidence, describes methodological aspects of the tumor registries and discusses issues of data quality in the context of the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort, the major atomic bomb survivor population. The tumor registries in Hiroshima and Nagasaki are characterized by active case ascertainment based on abstraction of medical records at area hospitals, augmented by tissue registries operational in the area and a number of clinical and pathological programs undertaken over the years among the atomic bomb survivors. Using conventional measures of quality, the Hiroshima and Nagasaki tumor registries have a death certificate-only (DCO) rate of less than 9%, a mortality/incidence (M/I) ratio of about 50%, and a histological verification (HV) rate in excess of 70%, which place these registries among the best in Japan and comparable to many established registries worldwide. All tumor registry data pertaining to the LSS population were assembled, reviewed and handled with special attention given to the quality and uniformity of data based on standardized procedures. Special studies and monitoring programs were also introduced to evaluate the quality of the tumor incidence data in the LSS. Analyses were performed to examine the quality of incidence data overall and across various substrata used for risk assessment such as age, time and radiation dose groups. No significant associations were found between radiation dose and data quality as measured by various indices. These findings warrant the use of the present tumor registry-based data for studies of cancer incidence in the atomic bomb survivors.

A case-control interview study of breast cancer among Japanese A-bomb survivors. II. Interactions with radiation dose

Three breast cancer risk factors were evaluated in terms of their interactions with radiation dose in a case-control interview study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cases and controls were matched on age at the time of the hombings and radiation dose, and dose-related risk was estimated from cohort rather than case-control data. Each factor—age at first full-term pregnancy, number of deliveries, and cumulative lactation period summed over births—conformed reasonably well to a multiplicative interaction model with radiation dose (the additive interactive model, in which the absolute excess risk associated with a factor is assumed to be independent of radiation dose, was rejected). An important implication of the finding is that early age at first full-term pregnancy, multiple births, and lengthy cumulative lactation are all protective against radiation-related, as well as baseline, breast cancer. Analyses by age at exposure to radiation suggest that, among women exposed to radiation in childhood or adolescence, a first full-term pregnancy at an early agefollowing exposure may be protective against radiation-related risk.

Early-onset breast cancer in A-bomb survivors

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A case-control interview study of breast cancer among Japanese A-bomb survivors. I. Main effects

Women with breast cancer (cases=196) and without the disease (controls=566), selected from the Life Span Study sample of A-bomb survivors and nonexposed residents of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan, and matched on age at the time of the bombings, city, and estimated radiation dose, were interviewed about reproductive and medical history. A primary purpose of the study was to identify strong breast cancer risk factors that could be investigated further for possible interactions with radiation dose. As expected, age at first full-term pregnancy was strongly and positively related to risk. Inverse associations were observed with number of births and total, cumulative period of breast feeding, even after adjustment for age at first full-term pregnancy. Histories of treatment for dysmenorrhea and for uterine or ovarian surgery were associated positively and significantly with risk at ages 55 or older, a finding that requires additional study. Other factors related to risk at older ages were the Quetelet index (weight [kg]/height [cm]2) at age 50, history of thyroid disease, and hypertension. Neither age at menarche nor age at menopause was associated significantly with risk. Subjects appeared to be poorly informed about history of breast cancer or other cancer in themselves or in their close relatives; this finding suggests that innovative strategies may be required when studying familial cancer patterns in Japanese populations.

Histologic characteristics of skin cancer in Hiroshima and Nagasaki: Background incidence and radiation effects

Skin cancers, though rare in Japan, have reportedly been on the rise, but little else is known about epidemiologic features of different histologic types of skin cancer. The Life Span Study cohort, which consists of 93,700 atomic‐bomb survivors, many of whom were exposed to negligibly low radiation doses, and 26,600 people not exposed to radiation, enables a population‐based study of spontaneous as well as radiation‐related cancer risk. Skin tumor incident cases diagnosed between 1958 and 1987 were ascertained by linkage to the Hiroshima and Nagasaki tumor registries augmented by searches of other data sources. Study pathologists reviewed tumor specimens and pathology reports and classified tumors using the World Health Organization classification scheme. They identified 274 primary incident skin cancers, of which 106 were basal cell carcinoma (BCC), 81 were squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), and 14 were malignant melanomas. Background incidence rates and radiation effects were assessed by Poisson regression models allowing for the effects of demographic and other covariates. BCC and SCC background incidence rates were both about 3 per 100,000 per year. BCCs were mainly on the head/neck (81%), whereas SCCs occurred most frequently on the arms/legs (45%) and head/neck (29%), consistent with the presumed role played by solar UV exposure in skin cancer. The BCC rates increased significantly between 1958 and 1987, whereas the SCC rates remained unchanged. The excess absolute risk of BCC per unit skin surface area related to atomic‐bomb radiation exposure did not differ between UV‐exposed and shielded parts of the body, suggesting the additivity of the radiation‐related and background BCC risks.

Histologic review of breast cancer cases in survivors of atomic bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan

A panel of Japanese and American pathologists reviewed existing histologic material used to study breast cancer risk among the A‐bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, a population in which incidence studies have found a strong relationship between breast cancer risk and radiation dose. The primary charge to the panel was to define a body of confirmed cases in the Life Span Study sample of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation that would require little or no reveiw for inclusion in future studies of breast cancer incidence. Broad agreement on histologic type was reached for 298 of 300 confirmed cases. The distribution of histologic types was, overall, similar to that seen in other studies of breast cancer in Japanese women, and did not appear to depend on dose; thus radiation‐induced breast cancer appeared to be no different histologically from other breast cancer. Also, no evidence was found of variation in histologic type by city, age at exposure, age at diagnosis, or calendar time.