Midori Soda

Solid Cancer Incidence in Atomic Bomb Survivors: 1958–1998

Abstract Preston, D. L., Ron, E., Tokuoka, S., Funamoto, S., Nishi, N., Soda, M., Mabuchi, K. and Kodama, K. Solid Cancer Incidence in Atomic Bomb Survivors: 1958–1998. Radiat. Res. 168, 1–64 (2007). This is the second general report on radiation effects on the incidence of solid cancers (cancers other than malignancies of the blood or blood-forming organs) among members of the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors. The analyses were based on 17,448 first primary cancers (including non-melanoma skin cancer) diagnosed from 1958 through 1998 among 105,427 cohort members with individual dose estimates who were alive and not known to have had cancer prior to 1958. Radiation-associated relative risks and excess rates were considered for all solid cancers as a group, for 19 specific cancer sites or groups of sites, and for five histology groups. Poisson regression methods were used to investigate the magnitude of the radiation-associated risks, the shape of the dose response, how these risks vary with gender, age at exposure, and attained age, and the evidence for inter-site variation in the levels and patterns of the excess risk. For all solid cancers as a group, it was estimated that about 850 (about 11%) of the cases among cohort members with colon doses in excess of 0.005 Gy were associated with atomic bomb radiation exposure. The data were consistent with a linear dose response over the 0- to 2-Gy range, while there was some flattening of the dose response at higher doses. Furthermore, there is a statistically significant dose response when analyses were limited to cohort members with doses of 0.15 Gy or less. The excess risks for all solid cancers as a group and many individual sites exhibit significant variation with gender, attained age, and age at exposure. It was estimated that, at age 70 after exposure at age 30, solid cancer rates increase by about 35% per Gy (90% CI 28%; 43%) for men and 58% per Gy (43%; 69%) for women. For all solid cancers as a group, the excess relative risk (ERR per Gy) decreases by about 17% per decade increase in age at exposure (90% CI 7%; 25%) after allowing for attained-age effects, while the ERR decreased in proportion to attained age to the power 1.65 (90% CI 2.1; 1.2) after allowing for age at exposure. Despite the decline in the ERR with attained age, excess absolute rates appeared to increase throughout the study period, providing further evidence that radiation-associated increases in cancer rates persist throughout life regardless of age at exposure. For all solid cancers as a group, women had somewhat higher excess absolute rates than men (F:M ratio 1.4; 90% CI 1.1; 1.8), but this difference disappears when the analysis was restricted to non-gender-specific cancers. Significant radiation-associated increases in risk were seen for most sites, including oral cavity, esophagus, stomach, colon, liver, lung, non-melanoma skin, breast, ovary, bladder, nervous system and thyroid. Although there was no indication of a statistically significant dose response for cancers of the pancreas, prostate and kidney, the excess relative risks for these sites were also consistent with that for all solid cancers as a group. Dose–response estimates for cancers of the rectum, gallbladder and uterus were not statistically significant, and there were suggestions that the risks for these sites may be lower than those for all solid cancers combined. However, there was emerging evidence from the present data that exposure as a child may increase risks of cancer of the body of the uterus. Elevated risks were seen for all of the five broadly classified histological groups considered, including squamous cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma, other epithelial cancers, sarcomas and other non-epithelial cancers. Although the data were limited, there was a significant radiation-associated increase in the risk of cancer occurring in adolescence and young adulthood. In view of the persisting increase in solid cancer risks, the LSS should continue to provide important new information on radiation exposure and solid cancer risks for at least another 15 to 20 years.

Cancer Incidence in Atomic Bomb Survivors. Part III: Leukemia, Lymphoma and Multiple Myeloma, 1950-1987

This paper presents an analysis of data on the incidence of leukemia, lymphoma and myeloma in the Life Span Study cohort of atomic bomb survivors during the period from late 1950 through the end of 1987 (93,696 survivors accounting for 2,778,000 person-years). These analyses add 9 additional years of follow-up for leukemia and 12 for myeloma to that in the last comprehensive reports on these diseases. This is the first analysis of the lymphoma incidence data in the cohort. Using both the Leukemia Registry and the Hiroshima and Nagasaki tumor registries, a total of 290 leukemia, 229 lymphoma and 73 myeloma cases were identified. The primary analyses were restricted to first primary tumors diagnosed among residents of the cities or surrounding areas with Dosimetry System 1986 dose estimates between 0 and 4 Gy kerma (231 leukemias, 208 lymphomas and 62 myelomas). Analyses focused on time-dependent models for the excess absolute risk. Separate analyses were carried out for acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL), acute myelogenous leukemia (AML), chronic myelocytic leukemia (CML) and adult T-cell leukemia (ATL). There were few cases of chronic lymphocytic leukemia in this population. There was strong evidence of radiation-induced risks for all subtypes except ATL, and there were significant subtype differences with respect to the effects of age at exposure and sex and in the temporal pattern of risk. The AML dose-response function was nonlinear, whereas there was no evidence against linearity for the other subtypes. When averaged over the follow-up period, the excess absolute risk (EAR) estimates (in cases per 10(4) PY Sv) for the leukemia subtypes were 0.6, 1.1 and 0.9 for ALL, AML and CML, respectively. The corresponding estimated average excess relative risks at 1 Sv are 9.1, 3.3 and 6.2 respectively. There was some evidence of an increased risk of lymphoma in males (EAR = 0.6 cases per 10(4) PY Sv) but no evidence of any excess in females. There was no evidence of an excess risk for multiple myeloma in our standard analyses.

Cancer incidence in atomic bomb survivors. Part II: Solid tumors, 1958-1987.

This report presents, for the first time, comprehensive data on the incidence of solid cancer and risk estimates for A-bomb survivors in the extended Life Span Study (LSS-E85) cohort. Among 79,972 individuals, 8613 first primary solid cancers were diagnosed between 1958 and 1987. As part of the standard registration process of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki tumor registries, cancer cases occurring among members of the LSS-E85 cohort were identified using a computer linkage system supplemented by manual searches. Special efforts were made to ensure complete case ascertainment, data quality and data consistency in the two cities. For all sites combined, 75% of the cancers were verified histologically, 6% were diagnosed by direct observation, 8% were based on a clinical diagnosis, and 12.6% were ascertained by death certificate only. A standard set of analyses was carried out for each of the organs and organ systems considered. Depending on the cancer site, Dosimetry System 1986 (DS86) organ or kerma doses were used for computing risk estimates. Analyses were based on a general excess relative risk model (the background rate times one plus the excess relative risk). Analyses carried out for each site involved fitting the background model with no dose effect, a linear dose-response model with no effect modifiers, a linear-quadratic dose-response model with no effect modifiers, and a series of linear dose-response models that included each of the covariates (sex, age at exposure, time since exposure, attained age and city) individually as effect modifiers. Because the tumor registries ascertain cancers in the registry catchment areas only, an adjustment was made for the effects of migration. In agreement with prior LSS findings, a statistically significant excess risk for all solid cancers was demonstrated [excess relative risk at 1 Sv (ERR1Sv) = 0.63; excess absolute risk (EAR) per 10(4) person-year sievert (PY Sv) = 29.7]. For cancers of the stomach (ERR1SV = 0.32), colon (ERR1SV = 0.72), lung (ERR1SV = 0.95), breast (ERR1SV = 1.59), ovary (ERR1SV = 0.99), urinary bladder (ERR1SV = 1.02) and thyroid (ERR1SV = 1.15), significant radiation associations were observed. There was some indication of an increase in tumors of the neural tissue (excluding the brain) among persons exposed to the bombs before age 20. For the first time, radiation has been associated with liver (ERR1SV = 0.49) and nonmelanoma skin (ERR1SV = 1.0) cancer incidence in the LSS cohort. The present analysis also strengthened earlier findings, based on a smaller number of cases, of an effect of A-bomb radiation on salivary gland cancer.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Incidence of female breast cancer among atomic bomb survivors, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, 1950-1990.

An incidence survey of the Life Span Study (LSS) population found 1093 breast cancers among 1059 breast cancer cases diagnosed during 1950-1990. As in earlier breast cancer surveys of this population, a linear and statistically highly significant radiation dose response was found. In the analysis, particular attention was paid to modification of radiation dose response by age at exposure (e) and attained age (a). Dose-specific excess relative risk (ERR(1Sv)) decreased with increasing values of e and a. A linear dose-response model analysis, with e and a as exponential age modifiers, did not conclusively discriminate between the two variables as modifiers of dose response. A modified isotonic regression approach, requiring only that ERR(1Sv) be monotonic in age, provides a fresh perspective indicating that both e and a are important modifiers of dose response. Exposure before age 20 was associated with higher ERR(1Sv) compared to exposure at older ages, with no evidence of consistent variation by exposure age for ages under 20. ERR(1Sv) was observed to decline with increasing attained age, with by far the largest drop around age 35. Possible explanations for these observations are discussed, along with research approaches that might provide more information.

Studies of the Mortality of Atomic Bomb Survivors, Report 14, 1950–2003: An Overview of Cancer and Noncancer Diseases

This is the 14th report in a series of periodic general reports on mortality in the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of atomic bomb survivors followed by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation to investigate the late health effects of the radiation from the atomic bombs. During the period 1950–2003, 58% of the 86,611 LSS cohort members with DS02 dose estimates have died. The 6 years of additional follow-up since the previous report provide substantially more information at longer periods after radiation exposure (17% more cancer deaths), especially among those under age 10 at exposure (58% more deaths). Poisson regression methods were used to investigate the magnitude of the radiation-associated risks, the shape of the dose response, and effect modification by gender, age at exposure, and attained age. The risk of all causes of death was positively associated with radiation dose. Importantly, for solid cancers the additive radiation risk (i.e., excess cancer cases per 104 person-years per Gy) continues to increase throughout life with a linear dose–response relationship. The sex-averaged excess relative risk per Gy was 0.42 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.32, 0.53] for all solid cancer at age 70 years after exposure at age 30 based on a linear model. The risk increased by about 29% per decade decrease in age at exposure (95% CI: 17%, 41%). The estimated lowest dose range with a significant ERR for all solid cancer was 0 to 0.20 Gy, and a formal dose-threshold analysis indicated no threshold; i.e., zero dose was the best estimate of the threshold. The risk of cancer mortality increased significantly for most major sites, including stomach, lung, liver, colon, breast, gallbladder, esophagus, bladder and ovary, whereas rectum, pancreas, uterus, prostate and kidney parenchyma did not have significantly increased risks. An increased risk of non-neoplastic diseases including the circulatory, respiratory and digestive systems was observed, but whether these are causal relationships requires further investigation. There was no evidence of a radiation effect for infectious or external causes of death.

Radiation exposure and circulatory disease risk: Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivor data, 1950-2003

Objective To investigate the degree to which ionising radiation confers risk of mortality from heart disease and stroke. Design Prospective cohort study with more than 50 years of follow-up. Setting Atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan. Participants 86 611 Life Span Study cohort members with individually estimated radiation doses from 0 to >3 Gy (86% received <0.2 Gy). Main outcome measures Mortality from stroke or heart disease as the underlying cause of death and dose-response relations with atomic bomb radiation. Results About 9600 participants died of stroke and 8400 died of heart disease between 1950 and 2003. For stroke, the estimated excess relative risk per gray was 9% (95% confidence interval 1% to 17%, P=0.02) on the basis of a linear dose-response model, but an indication of possible upward curvature suggested relatively little risk at low doses. For heart disease, the estimated excess relative risk per gray was 14% (6% to 23%, P<0.001); a linear model provided the best fit, suggesting excess risk even at lower doses. However, the dose-response effect over the restricted dose range of 0 to 0.5 Gy was not significant. Prospective data on smoking, alcohol intake, education, occupation, obesity, and diabetes had almost no impact on the radiation risk estimates for either stroke or heart disease, and misdiagnosis of cancers as circulatory diseases could not account for the associations seen. Conclusion Doses above 0.5 Gy are associated with an elevated risk of both stroke and heart disease, but the degree of risk at lower doses is unclear. Stroke and heart disease together account for about one third as many radiation associated excess deaths as do cancers among atomic bomb survivors.

Incidence of female breast cancer among atomic bomb survivors, 1950-1985

An incidence survey among atomic bomb survivors identified 807 breast cancer cases, and 20 second breast cancers. As in earlier surveys of the Life Span Study population, a strongly linear radiation dose response was found, with the highest dose-specific excess relative risk (ERR) among survivors under 20 years old at the time of the bombings. Sixty-eight of the cases were under 10 years old at exposure, strengthening earlier reports of a marked excess risk associated with exposure during infancy and childhood. A much lower, but marginally significant, dose response was seen among women exposed at 40 years and older. It was not possible, however, to discriminate statistically between age at exposure and age at observation for risk as the more important determinant of ERR per unit dose. A 13-fold ERR at 1 Sv was found for breast cancer occurring before age 35, compared to a 2-fold excess after age 35, among survivors exposed before age 20. This a posteriori finding, based on 27 exposed, known-dose, early-onset cases, suggests the possible existence of a susceptible genetic subgroup. Further studies, involving family histories of cancer and investigations at the molecular level, are suggested to determine whether such a subgroup exists.

Solid Cancer Incidence in Atomic Bomb Survivors Exposed In Utero or as Young Children

BACKGROUND In utero exposure to radiation is known to increase risks of childhood cancers, and childhood exposure is associated with increased risks of adult-onset cancers. However, little is known about whether in utero exposure to radiation increases risks of adult-onset cancers. METHODS Solid cancer incidence rates were examined among survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki who were in utero (n = 2452) or younger than 6 years (n = 15388) at the time of the bombings. Poisson regression was used to estimate and compare the levels and temporal patterns of the radiation-associated excess risks of first primary solid cancers among these survivors at ages 12-55. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS There were 94 eligible cancers in the in utero group and 649 in the early childhood group. The excess relative risk (ERR) increased with dose for both in utero (age 50, ERR = 1.0 per Sv, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.2 to 2.3 per Sv) and early childhood (age 50, ERR = 1.7 per Sv, 95% CI = 1.1 to 2.5 Sv) exposures. The ERR declined (P = .046) with increasing attained age in the combined cohort. Excess absolute rates (EARs) increased markedly with attained age among those exposed in early childhood but exhibited little change in the in utero group. At age 50, the estimated EARs per 10,000 person-years per Sv were 6.8 (95% CI = <0 to 49) for those exposed in utero and 56 (95% CI = 36 to 79) for those exposed as young children. CONCLUSIONS Both the in utero and early childhood groups exhibited statistically significant dose-related increases in incidence rates of solid cancers. The apparent difference in EARs between the two groups suggests that lifetime risks following in utero exposure may be considerably lower than for early childhood exposure, but further follow-up is needed.

Array-based genomic resequencing of human leukemia

To identify oncogenes in leukemias, we performed large-scale resequencing of the leukemia genome using DNA sequence arrays that determine ∼9 Mbp of sequence corresponding to the exons or exon–intron boundaries of 5648 protein-coding genes. Hybridization of genomic DNA from CD34-positive blasts of acute myeloid leukemia (n=19) or myeloproliferative disorder (n=1) with the arrays identified 9148 nonsynonymous nucleotide changes. Subsequent analysis showed that most of these changes were also present in the genomic DNA of the paired controls, with 11 somatic changes identified only in the leukemic blasts. One of these latter changes results in a Met-to-Ile substitution at amino-acid position 511 of Janus kinase 3 (JAK3), and the JAK3(M511I) protein exhibited transforming potential both in vitro and in vivo. Further screening for JAK3 mutations showed novel and known transforming changes in a total of 9 out of 286 cases of leukemia. Our experiments also showed a somatic change responsible for an Arg-to-His substitution at amino-acid position 882 of DNA methyltransferase 3A, which resulted in a loss of DNA methylation activity of >50%. Our data have thus shown a unique profile of gene mutations in human leukemia.

Effects of Menopause on Trends of Serum Cholesterol, Blood Pressure, and Body Mass Index

BACKGROUND To elucidate the impact of menopause on coronary risk factors, we determined the trends of serum cholesterol (mg/dL), blood pressure (BP, mm Hg), and body mass index (BMI, kg/m2) and investigated whether menopause affects these trends in women in Nagasaki, Japan. METHODS AND RESULTS Trends of cholesterol, systolic BP (SBP), and BMI from 9 years before menopause through 9 years after menopause in 579 women with natural menopause (ranging in age from 40.2+/-3.1 to 57.9+/-3.1 years; age at menopause, 49.4+/-3.0 years) and 134 women with surgical menopause (hysterectomy with or without bilateral oophorectomy; ranging in age from 34.9+/-4.5 to 51.7+/-5.1 years; age at menopause, 42.9+/-5.0 years) and those in 579 and 134 age- and time-matched male subjects (ranging in age from 40.1+/-3.1 to 57.8+/-3.2 years and from 35.2+/-4.5 to 51.6+/-5.0 years, respectively) in Nagasaki were determined by rearrangement of the data from 1958 to 1989 with time of menopause as the datum line. Although cholesterol tended to increase with age in both sexes, it increased significantly in women from 3 years before natural menopause to 1 year after natural menopause and from 1 year before surgical menopause to 1 year after surgical menopause. SBP and BMI did not exhibit a significant increase in relation to natural or surgical menopause. In male subjects, no significant increase of cholesterol, SBP, or BMI was observed at the age corresponding to natural or surgical menopause. CONCLUSIONS Natural menopause and surgical menopause exert an effect only on cholesterol, and an increase in cholesterol precedes natural menopause by 3 years and occurs at the time of surgical menopause.