Maud Huynen

The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality rates in the Dutch population.

We conducted the study described in this paper to investigate the impact of ambient temperature on mortality in the Netherlands during 1979-1997, the impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality in particular, and the possibility of any heat wave- or cold spell-induced forward displacement of mortality. We found a V-like relationship between mortality and temperature, with an optimum temperature value (e.g., average temperature with lowest mortality rate) of 16.5 degrees C for total mortality, cardiovascular mortality, respiratory mortality, and mortality among those [Greater and equal to] 65 year of age. For mortality due to malignant neoplasms and mortality in the youngest age group, the optimum temperatures were 15.5 degrees C and 14.5 degrees C, respectively. For temperatures above the optimum, mortality increased by 0.47, 1.86, 12.82, and 2.72% for malignant neoplasms, cardiovascular disease, respiratory diseases, and total mortality, respectively, for each degree Celsius increase above the optimum in the preceding month. For temperatures below the optimum, mortality increased 0.22, 1.69, 5.15, and 1.37%, respectively, for each degree Celsius decrease below the optimum in the preceding month. Mortality increased significantly during all of the heat waves studied, and the elderly were most effected by extreme heat. The heat waves led to increases in mortality due to all of the selected causes, especially respiratory mortality. Average total excess mortality during the heat waves studied was 12.1%, or 39.8 deaths/day. The average excess mortality during the cold spells was 12.8% or 46.6 deaths/day, which was mostly attributable to the increase in cardiovascular mortality and mortality among the elderly. The results concerning the forward displacement of deaths due to heat waves were not conclusive. We found no cold-induced forward displacement of deaths.

Linkages between biodiversity loss and human health: a global indicator analysis

The association between health and biodiversity loss was explored by means of regression analysis on a global scale, with control for confounding by socio-economic developments. For this we selected indicators of human health (life expectancy, disability adjusted life expectancy, infant mortality rate and percentage low-birthweight babies), biodiversity (percentage threatened species, current forest as a percentage of original forest, percentage of land highly disturbed by man) and socio-economic development (health expenditure as percentage of GNP, percentage one-year olds immunized, illiteracy rate, GNP per capita and development grade) on a country level. After controlling for relevant socio-economic confounders, both current forest as a percentage of original forest and the percentage of land highly disturbed by human activities had no relationship with one of the health indicators. The logarithm of the percentage threatened species, showed a positive association with life expectancy and disability adjusted life expectancy. The present study was not able to provide any empirical proof of a negative association between loss of biodiversity and human health at the global scale. This does not mean, however, that no such relationship exists, because there may be several reasons for our findings, like possible non-linearity of the relationship, lack of suitable indicators, non-randomness in the sample of countries and the limitations of regression analysis in proving causality.

Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment.

Although people will most likely adjust to warmer temperatures, it is still difficult to assess what this adaptation will look like. This scenario-based integrated health impacts assessment explores baseline (1981–2010) and future (2050) population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality due to heat (PAFheat) and cold (PAFcold), by combining observed temperature–mortality relationships with the Dutch KNMI’14 climate scenarios and three adaptation scenarios. The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%–7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%–2.52% in 2050). When the 2050 model runs applying the different adaptation scenarios are considered as well, however, the PAFheat ranges between 0.94% and 2.52% and the PAFcold between 6.56% and 9.85%. Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario). The associated annual mortality burdens in 2050—accounting for both the increasing temperatures and mortality trend—show that heat-related deaths will range between 1879 and 5061 (1511 at baseline) and cold-related deaths between 13,149 and 19,753 (11,727 at baseline). Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions. Hence, a better understanding of (the impact of various) plausible adaptation scenarios is required to advance future integrated health impact assessments.

Impact of climate change on human and animal health

CLIMATE change is considered a major threat to human health and wellbeing, with increasing evidence of it affecting infectious diseases ([Dufour and others 2008][1], [Gale and others 2009b][2], [Semenza and Menne 2009][3]). But how large is this threat? Will many diseases respond to climate change

Developing Digital Educational Materials for Nursing and Sustainability: The results of an observational study

BACKGROUND There is limited European literature on nursing and sustainability; nursing students are poorly prepared on the connections between resources, climate change, sustainability, and health, so they must acquire knowledge and develop skills and competencies in this field. The use of digital technologies and teaching via E-learning has grown, and has been widely adopted as a learning method for nursing. OBJECTIVES The aim of the current study was to test and evaluate digital educational materials on environmental sustainability and health, in the context of university nursing education in different European countries. DESIGN An observational cross-sectional design. SETTINGS University of Plymouth, University of Jaén, and University of Esslingen for Nursing Degree Studies. PARTICIPANTS 299 nursing students: 161 students from University of Jaén; 106 from Plymouth; and 32 from Esslingen. 22 professional evaluators with different profiles were recruited: Teachers, Clinical professionals, Delphi Experts, and Technical Experts. METHODS We conducted a piloting and validation process. The materials were designed and adapted to the NurSusTOOLKIT Sustainability Literacy and Competency framework. Evaluation was developed by professionals and students. We used the Spanish Standard for the assessment of Digital Educational Material Quality at University level questionnaire. All students provided informed consent prior to taking part in the learning and evaluation. RESULTS The overall evaluations of materials by students and professionals were 7.98±1.28 and 8.50±1.17, respectively. The Ability to generate learning was scored higher among students (mean difference: 0.84; 0.22-1.47; p=0.008). In the overall assessment by students, statistically significant differences were found between the three universities (Welch: 11.69, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Students, professionals, and technical experts considered the materials to be very good quality, especially regarding the quality of contents, format, and design. For students, these materials can generate reflection and learning regarding environmental and health issues during nursing training.

New frontiers for environmental epidemiology in a changing world

BACKGROUND In the next 25years, transformative changes, in particular the rapid pace of technological development and data availability, will require environmental epidemiologists to prioritize what should (rather than could) be done to most effectively improve population health. OBJECTIVES In this essay, we map out key driving forces that will shape environmental epidemiology in the next 25years. We also identify how the field should adapt to best take advantage of coming opportunities and prepare for challenges. DISCUSSION Future environmental epidemiologists will face a world shaped by longer lifespans but also larger burdens of chronic health conditions; shifting populations by region and into urban areas; and global environmental change. Rapidly evolving technologies, particularly in sensors and OMICs, will present opportunities for the field. How should it respond? We argue, the field best adapts to a changing world by focusing on healthy aging; evidence gaps, especially in susceptible populations and low-income countries; and by developing approaches to better handle complexity and more formalized analysis. CONCLUSIONS Environmental epidemiology informing disease prevention will continue to be valuable. However, the field must adapt to remain relevant. In particular, the field must ensure that public health importance drives research questions, while seizing the opportunities presented by new technologies. Environmental epidemiologists of the future will require different, refined skills to work effectively across disciplines, ask the right questions, and implement appropriate study designs in a data-rich world.

Sustainability and Health

Achieving good health should be an integral part of the current discussions about sustainable development. It is increasingly recognized that health research (and policy) requires a systems approach and the past decades have witnessed an emerging recognition of the multidimensional and multilevel causation of population health. An ever growing number of health researchers argue that the health of a population can – or must – be viewed within the broader system of health determinants. Consequently, in our effort to assess the health impacts of global (environmental) change, we have to be aware of the limitations of the traditional reductionist approach.

Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors.

There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample’s prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these.

De gezonde wereld

SamenvattingVolgens de Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) leidt klimaatverandering tot substantiële gezondheidsrisico’s.1 In 2009 nam de WHO een resolutie aan op het gebied van klimaatverandering en gezondheid die lidstaten oproept om verder onderzoek te verrichten naar het verband tussen klimaatverandering en gezondheidseffecten en beschermende maatregelen te nemen wanneer nodig.2 De Europese Commissie stelt dat klimaatverandering overduidelijk directe en indirecte schadelijke effecten op de volksgezondheid heeft en onderkent de noodzaak van (onderzoek naar) passende adaptatiemaatregelen.3 Ook in Nederland worden er uiteenlopende nadelige effecten op de Nederlandse volksgezondheid verwacht en is een adequaat adaptatiebeleid noodzakelijk.4,5