Michael J. Osland

Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: salt marshes vs. mangrove forests in the southeastern United States

We live in an era of unprecedented ecological change in which ecologists and natural resource managers are increasingly challenged to anticipate and prepare for the ecological effects of future global change. In this study, we investigated the potential effect of winter climate change upon salt marsh and mangrove forest foundation species in the southeastern United States. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) What is the relationship between winter climate and the presence and abundance of mangrove forests relative to salt marshes; (2) How vulnerable are salt marshes to winter climate change-induced mangrove forest range expansion; and (3) What is the potential future distribution and relative abundance of mangrove forests under alternative winter climate change scenarios? We developed simple winter climate-based models to predict mangrove forest distribution and relative abundance using observed winter temperature data (1970-2000) and mangrove forest and salt marsh habitat data. Our results identify winter climate thresholds for salt marsh-mangrove forest interactions and highlight coastal areas in the southeastern United States (e.g., Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Florida) where relatively small changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme winter events could cause relatively dramatic landscape-scale ecosystem structural and functional change in the form of poleward mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The ecological implications of these marsh-to-mangrove forest conversions are poorly understood, but would likely include changes for associated fish and wildlife populations and for the supply of some ecosystem goods and services.

Beyond just sea‐level rise: considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change

Due to their position at the land-sea interface, coastal wetlands are vulnerable to many aspects of climate change. However, climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands generally focus solely on sea-level rise without considering the effects of other facets of climate change. Across the globe and in all ecosystems, macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. Macroclimatic drivers have been the focus of climate change-related threat evaluations for terrestrial ecosystems, but largely ignored for coastal wetlands. In some coastal wetlands, changing macroclimatic conditions are expected to result in foundation plant species replacement, which would affect the supply of certain ecosystem goods and services and could affect ecosystem resilience. As examples, we highlight several ecological transition zones where small changes in macroclimatic conditions would result in comparatively large changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. Our intent in this communication is not to minimize the importance of sea-level rise. Rather, our overarching aim is to illustrate the need to also consider macroclimatic drivers within vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands.

Salt marsh‐mangrove ecotones: using structural gradients to investigate the effects of woody plant encroachment on plant–soil interactions and ecosystem carbon pools

Summary 1.Changing winter climate extremes are expected to result in the poleward migration of mangrove forests at the expense of salt marshes. Although mangroves and marshes are both highly valued ecosystems, the ecological implications of mangrove expansion have not been fully investigated. 2.Here we examined the effects of mangrove expansion on below-ground properties related to peat development and carbon storage. We investigated plant-soil interactions in marshes and across mangrove forest structural gradients in three locations in the northern Gulf of Mexico (USA). We compared our results to those from terrestrial grasslands where the effects of woody plant encroachment are often influenced by rainfall and plant traits. 3.Abiotic conditions at our study locations differed, particularly in terms of physicochemical properties related to precipitation. Marsh species composition, marsh above-ground biomass, and mangrove forest structural complexity also varied across these locations. Marshes in the driest location (Central Texas) had higher salinities and were dominated by low biomass succulent plants and lower soil carbon pools. Marshes in the wetter, less saline locations (Louisiana and North Florida) contained high biomass grasses and higher soil carbon pools. 4.At all locations, above-ground biomass and above-ground carbon pools were higher in mangroves than marshes; however, below-ground soil carbon pools were only higher in mangroves than marshes in the driest location. In the wetter locations, the linkages between mangrove forest structure and soil properties were minimal or not significant. However, in the driest location, there was a significant increase in soil properties related to peat development and carbon storage with increased mangrove forest structural development. 5.Synthesis: Our results indicate that the ecological implications of woody plant encroachment in tidal saline wetlands are dependent upon precipitation controls of plant-soil interactions. Although the above-ground effects of mangrove expansion are consistently large, below-ground influences of mangrove expansion appear to be greatest along low-rainfall coasts where salinities are high and marshes being replaced are carbon poor and dominated by succulent plants. Collectively, these findings complement those from terrestrial ecosystems and reinforce the importance of considering rainfall and plant-soil interactions within predictions of the ecological effects of woody plant encroachment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Freshwater availability and coastal wetland foundation species: ecological transitions along a rainfall gradient

Climate gradient-focused ecological research can provide a foundation for better understanding critical ecological transition points and nonlinear climate–ecological relationships, which is information that can be used to better understand, predict, and manage ecological responses to climate change. In this study, we examined the influence of freshwater availability upon the coverage of foundation plant species in coastal wetlands along a northwestern Gulf of Mexico rainfall gradient. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) What are the regional-scale relationships between measures of freshwater availability (e.g., rainfall, aridity, freshwater inflow, salinity) and the relative abundance of foundation plant species in tidal wetlands; (2) how vulnerable are foundation plant species in tidal wetlands to future changes in freshwater availability; and (3) what is the potential future relative abundance of tidal wetland foundation plant species under alternative climate change scenarios? We ...

Life stage influences the resistance and resilience of black mangrove forests to winter climate extremes

In subtropical coastal wetlands on multiple continents, climate change-induced reductions in the frequency and intensity of freezing temperatures are expected to lead to the expansion of woody plants (i.e., mangrove forests) at the expense of tidal grasslands (i.e., salt marshes). Since some ecosystem goods and services would be affected by mangrove range expansion, there is a need to better understand mangrove sensitivity to freezing temperatures as well as the implications of changing winter climate extremes for mangrove-salt marsh interactions. In this study, we investigated the following questions: (1) how does plant life stage (i.e., ontogeny) influence the resistance and resilience of black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) forests to freezing temperatures; and (2) how might differential life stage responses to freeze events affect the rate of mangrove expansion and salt marsh displacement due to climate change? To address these questions, we quantified freeze damage and recovery for different life stages (seedling, short tree, and tall tree) following extreme winter air temperature events that occurred near the northern range limit of A. germinans in North America. We found that life stage affects black mangrove forest resistance and resilience to winter climate extremes in a nonlinear fashion. Resistance to winter climate extremes was high for tall A. germinans trees and seedlings, but lowest for short trees. Resilience was highest for tall A. germinans trees. These results suggest the presence of positive feedbacks and indicate that climate-change induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme minimum air temperatures could lead to a nonlinear increase in mangrove forest resistance and resilience. This feedback could accelerate future mangrove expansion and salt marsh loss at rates beyond what would be predicted from climate change alone. In general terms, our study highlights the importance of accounting for differential life stage responses and positive feedbacks when evaluating the ecological effects of changes in the frequency and magnitude of climate extremes.

Aboveground allometric models for freeze-affected black mangroves (Avicennia germinans): equations for a climate sensitive mangrove-marsh ecotone.

Across the globe, species distributions are changing in response to climate change and land use change. In parts of the southeastern United States, climate change is expected to result in the poleward range expansion of black mangroves (Avicennia germinans) at the expense of some salt marsh vegetation. The morphology of A. germinans at its northern range limit is more shrub-like than in tropical climes in part due to the aboveground structural damage and vigorous multi-stem regrowth triggered by extreme winter temperatures. In this study, we developed aboveground allometric equations for freeze-affected black mangroves which can be used to quantify: (1) total aboveground biomass; (2) leaf biomass; (3) stem plus branch biomass; and (4) leaf area. Plant volume (i.e., a combination of crown area and plant height) was selected as the optimal predictor of the four response variables. We expect that our simple measurements and equations can be adapted for use in other mangrove ecosystems located in abiotic settings that result in mangrove individuals with dwarf or shrub-like morphologies including oligotrophic and arid environments. Many important ecological functions and services are affected by changes in coastal wetland plant community structure and productivity including carbon storage, nutrient cycling, coastal protection, recreation, fish and avian habitat, and ecosystem response to sea level rise and extreme climatic events. Coastal scientists in the southeastern United States can use the identified allometric equations, in combination with easily obtained and non-destructive plant volume measurements, to better quantify and monitor ecological change within the dynamic, climate sensitive, and highly-productive mangrove-marsh ecotone.

The physiology of mangrove trees with changing climate

Mangrove forests grow on saline, permanently or periodically flooded soils of the tropical and subtropical coasts. The tree species that compose the mangrove are halophytes that have suites of traits that confer differing levels of tolerance of salinity, aridity, inundation and extremes of temperature. Here we review how climate change and elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 will influence mangrove forests. Tolerance of salinity and inundation in mangroves is associated with the efficient use of water for photosynthetic carbon gain which underpins anticipated gains in productivity with increasing levels of CO2. We review evidence of increases in productivity with increasing CO2, finding that enhancements in growth appear to be similar to trees in non-mangrove habitats and that gains in productivity with elevated CO2 are likely due to changes in biomass allocation. High levels of trait plasticity are observed in some mangrove species, which potentially facilitates their responses to climate change. Trait plasticity is associated with broad tolerance of salinity, aridity, low temperatures and nutrient availability. Because low temperatures and aridity place strong limits on mangrove growth at the edge of their current distribution, increasing temperatures over time and changing rainfall patterns are likely to have an important influence on the distribution of mangroves. We provide a global analysis based on plant traits and IPCC scenarios of changing temperature and aridity that indicates substantial global potential for mangrove expansion.

Coastal Freshwater Wetland Plant Community Response to Seasonal Drought and Flooding in Northwestern Costa Rica

Wetlands in tropical wet-dry climates are governed by distinct and extreme seasonal hydrologic fluctuations. In this study, we investigated the plant community response to seasonal flooding and drought in Palo Verde Marsh, Costa Rica. Climate change models for the region predict reduced rainfall and a drier wet season which would likely alter seasonal hydrologic cycles and prompt vegetation change. We quantified compositional change following disturbance emphasizing seasonal differences in plant life-form abundance across life history stages via standing vegetation, seed bank, and seedling recruitment measurements. Whereas the dry season standing vegetation was dominated by emergent species, aquatic species (floating-rooted, free-floating, and submerged life forms) were more dominant during the wet season. Seed bank and seedling recruitment measurements indicated that many species are resilient with life history traits that enable them to respond rapidly to extreme hydrologic filters. Interestingly, species richness was highest during seasonal flooding. Our results highlight the importance of early-wet season rainfall for plant regeneration and community change. Our findings also indicate that a drier future would likely have a large impact upon wetland plant communities with a decrease in species richness and an increase in the abundance of drought-tolerant emergent species.

Created mangrove wetlands store belowground carbon and surface elevation change enables them to adjust to sea-level rise

Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, loss of mangrove wetlands and these ecosystem services are a global concern, prompting the restoration and creation of mangrove wetlands as a potential solution. Here, we investigate soil surface elevation change, and its components, in created mangrove wetlands over a 25 year developmental gradient. All created mangrove wetlands were exceeding current relative sea-level rise rates (2.6 mm yr−1), with surface elevation change of 4.2–11.0 mm yr−1 compared with 1.5–7.2 mm yr−1 for nearby reference mangroves. While mangrove wetlands store C persistently in roots/soils, storage capacity is most valuable if maintained with future sea-level rise. Through empirical modeling, we discovered that properly designed creation projects may not only yield enhanced C storage, but also can facilitate wetland persistence perennially under current rates of sea-level rise and, for most sites, for over a century with projected medium accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 6.0). Only the fastest projected accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 8.5) led to widespread submergence and potential loss of stored C for created mangrove wetlands before 2100.

Native Bamboo [Arundinaria gigantea (Walter) Muhl., Poaceae] Establishment and Growth after the Removal of an Invasive Non-Native Shrub (Ligustrum sinense Lour., Oleaceae): Implications for Restoration

Abstract Giant cane (Arundinaria gigantea) is a native bamboo species that was once abundant in wetlands and riparian areas throughout the Southeastern United States. As part of an effort to identify competitive-dominant native species that can be utilized to maximize the restoration of riparian ecosystem functions/services and reduce non-native community invasibility, we transplanted cane clump divisions into areas either dominated by or recently cleared of Chinese privet (Ligustrum sinense), an invasive non-native shrub. We quantified cane survival and growth in the presence of privet and other plants including several common invasive non-natives. Removal of mature privet via a cut and paint application of glyphosate herbicide resulted in 100% mortality. Cane survival was high in both the high and low-light conditions provided by the opposing privet treatments. During the first year, there was little cane growth or expansion in either privet treatment. In the second year, cane growth and expansion in the Privet-Present treatment was also very low. However, during the second year in the Privet-Removed treatment, cane genets produced more ramets, increased in genet area, and developed ramets that were taller and thicker. Despite very high recruitment and cover of Japanese stilt grass (Microstegium vimineum) and other common invasive non-natives in the Privet-Removed treatment, transplanted cane genets continue to grow and expand. Our future research will continue to monitor the rate of cane growth as we investigate whether cane can compete with the common non-native invasive species that are dominant at this site and at other riparian ecosystems throughout the region.