Michael Krepon

A Ray of Hope

Something is clearly different in Kashmir today. Although Pakistans moves this winter can be interpreted either as tactical maneuvers or the early manifestations of fundamental reassessment, the situation is unusually fluid. Clearly, important opportunities exist.

What is to be Done

It is now time to turn from theory to a brief consideration of practice—to ask the question, if something like the analysis given in the preceding chapters is correct, then what, if anything, does it demand that we do? At the end of chapter one, it was pointed out that, considered analytically, Holt’s works consist of three main components. First, they contain a positive or constructive account of what he considers the ‘best learning’, the sorts of conditions that promote such learning, and the sorts of conditions that are hostile to it. Secondly, they contain a critique of education, which is justified by appeal to the foregoing account of ‘best learning’. And thirdly, they contain a range of practical strategies, aimed at mitigating the problems of education (especially compulsory schooling) and maximising the opportunity of acquiring the ‘best learning’. This third component was of great significance to Holt. Although there is a sense in which Holt’s work is ‘utopian’, in that it criticises some foundational cultural assumptions and envisages a possible society that exists nowhere, he is, at the same time, a deeply practical, realistic thinker. He does not offer airy plans for grand social reconstruction, addressed to nobody in particular; rather, he tries to answer the question of what can be done by us, here and now. In the words of one of his book titles, he wants to answer the question: What do I do Monday?

The Nuclear Flock

Now that the United States has given India a free pass around nuclear controls, other states will be lining up to profit from proliferation.

It's not son of Star Wars

The theater missile defense initiative is a far cry from Star Wars—its more like devising new rules of the road.

Improving the Utility and Effectiveness of the Standing Consultative Commission

Unresolved compliance problems have become a major irritant in relations between the United States and the Soviet Union, contributing to the Reagan Administration’s decision in May 1986 to end its policy of “interim restraint” towards the SALT I Interim Agreement and the SALT II Treaty. These compliance problems, such as the construction of the Krasnoyarsk radar, have not been satisfactorily resolved in the forum created to address SALT compliance questions—the Standing Consultative Commission (SCC).

The view from the brink

William J. Perry was trained as a mathematician and has evolved into a prophet. The instrument of his transformation is, of course, the Bomb. This reviewer is incapable of assessing his memoir, My Journey at the Nuclear Brink, without personal bias. It has been my good fortune to call Bill Perry a role model and a mentor. His equanimity is a source of wonder, given the pressures of his work. His contributions to the reduction of nuclear dangers are tangible and significant. And his commitment to “ensure that nuclear weapons are never used again” (p. xiv) is unflagging. He remains at the ramparts because nuclear dangers have returned “in a new and alarming guise.” (p. xv) He has written this “selective memoir” (p. xvii) to generate greater public commitment to counter ominous trend lines. “Instead of retreating into a comfortable retirement,” Bill writes, “I am dedicating the balance of my life to doing whatever I can to reduce the dangers. I do this because I believe that time is not on our side.” (p. 196) Students and young professionals reading this book can take heart from the non-linear path of Bill’s early career. Most of us wonder what we’ll do in life, and worry that our early zigzagging does not project coherence of purpose. But life has a delayed way of clarifying how our steps come together. Bill’s early steps seemed a bit random but, in retrospect, they fit together perfectly to clarify his life’s purpose. The analytical mind of a mathematician, the foresight to anticipate advanced technologies, the acumen for entrepreneurship, the instinct for collaborative achievement, and the impulse for public service combined to produce a life exceptionally meaningful and well lived:

POLITICAL SCIENCE, COMING IN FROM THE COLD

Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century: The Role of Theory (vol. 1, 312 pages,

THE LIMITS OF INFLUENCE

24.95) and A Comparative Perspective (vol. 2, 488 pages,

An international Code of Conduct for responsible spacefaring nations

24.95), edited by William C. Potter with Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova. Stanford University Press, 2010.

SPACE WEAPONS AND PROLIFERATION

Even during periods of significant leverage, Washington has not had the power to stop and reverse Pakistans nuclear trends. Pakistans nuclear establishment has successfully deflected unwelcome US diplomatic initiatives and has been able to draw the line between necessary adaptation to, and rejection of, external pressures. Pakistans national security managers clearly perceive that Washingtons highest priorities in bilateral relations relate to the US military campaign in Afghanistan and efforts to combat terrorist groups with global reach. They presume that nuclear issues will continue to take a backseat to ongoing military campaigns in which Pakistans assistance is crucial for Americas success. This correlation of pressure and response might well change if Pakistans nuclear activities again become front-page news. Absent this, US-Pakistani relations do not lend themselves to effective, near-term suasion by Washington on nuclear issues, whether via the 2010 US Nuclear Posture Review or other means. Pakistani leaders remain sensitive to US initiatives because Washington sets the international tone on nuclear issues. Nonetheless, Pakistans concerns over Indian nuclear capabilities and intentions trump Washingtons powers of persuasion.