Michael McCormick

2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility

Variability of central European temperature and precipitation shows correlations with some major historical changes. Climate variations influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial societies. Discrimination between environmental and anthropogenic impacts on past civilizations, however, remains difficult because of the paucity of high-resolution paleoclimatic evidence. We present tree ring–based reconstructions of central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years. Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and medieval prosperity. Increased climate variability from ~250 to 600 C.E. coincided with the demise of the western Roman Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period. Such historical data may provide a basis for counteracting the recent political and fiscal reluctance to mitigate projected climate change.

Climate Change during and after the Roman Empire: Reconstructing the Past from Scientific and Historical Evidence

Growing scientific evidence from modern climate science is loaded with implications for the environmental history of the Roman Empire and its successor societies. The written and archaeological evidence, although richer than commonly realized, is unevenly distributed over time and space. A first synthesis of what the written records and multiple natural archives (multi-proxy data) indicate about climate change and variability across western Eurasia from c. 100 b.c. to 800 a.d. confirms that the Roman Empire rose during a period of stable and favorable climatic conditions, which deteriorated during the Empires third-century crisis. A second, briefer period of favorable conditions coincided with the Empires recovery in the fourth century; regional differences in climate conditions parallel the diverging fates of the eastern and western Empires in subsequent centuries. Climate conditions beyond the Empires boundaries also played an important role by affecting food production in the Nile valley, and by encouraging two major migrations and invasions of pastoral peoples from Central Asia.

Rats, Communications, and Plague: Toward an Ecological History

During the last twenty years, archaeozoological research has significantly transformed the picture of the black rat (rattus rattus) in classical antiquity and medieval Europe. These new data, in conjunction with extant texts from these periods, make a great contribution to the understanding of the bubonic plagues of the sixth and the fourteenth centuries, as well as to the history of the communications and economic systems linking the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic. The study of ancient rats and their colonization extends the temporal and geographical groundwork for a fully historical global ecology.

Volcanoes and the Climate Forcing of Carolingian Europe, A.D. 750-950

Revolutionary advances of the natural sciences will transform our understanding of the human past. This case study supports that thesis by connecting new data arising from the last decades scientific work in palaeoclimatology with the history of the Carolingian empire. For medievalists, it may open the door to a potent new set of insights into the total past of European civilization. For climate scientists, this study clarifies an opportunity to observe the impact on human society of scientifically established proxy measures of climatic anomalies and shows that the human evidence for the first millennium of our era is much richer than scientists generally assume. Food production was the foundation of the medieval economy, the generation and distribution of wealth. In the early-medieval world of limited storage and interregional transport, severe climatic anomalies, among other factors, could disrupt food production and supply. Particularly if they caused famines, such disruptions have long attracted historians concerned with demography (mortal ity), politics (rebellions), and, most recently, culture or mentality.1 Direct cor relation between severe climatic anomalies and historical events is often obvious, even if the details prove to be complex. For instance, in the reign of Pippin III, the severe winter of 763-64 provoked famine, and that surely explains the sus pension of the major effort by the king to conquer Aquitaine the following sum mer.2 This paper explores palaeoclimate data recovered from the Greenland Ice

The Climate and Environment of Byzantine Anatolia: Integrating Science, History, and Archaeology

The integration of high-resolution archaeological, textual, and environmental data with longer-term, low-resolution data affords greater precision in identifying some of the causal relationships underlying societal change. Regional and microregional case studies about the Byzantine world—in particular, Anatolia, which for several centuries was the heart of that world—reveal many of the difficulties that researchers face when attempting to assess the influence of environmental factors on human society. The Anatolian case challenges a number of assumptions about the impact of climatic factors on socio-political organization and medium-term historical evolution, highlighting the importance of further collaboration between historians, archaeologists, and climate scientists.

Data Theft: A Prototypical Insider Threat

The author is the lead information security architect at one of the United States’ largest banks. In this paper he assesses the threat of confidential data leakage, focusing on its most virulent form – insider data theft attacks. Technological and procedural controls typically found in enterprise environments are reviewed and found inadequate. Additional controls are proposed, and several areas for additional technical research are also suggested.

A High-Coverage Yersinia pestis Genome from a Sixth-Century Justinianic Plague Victim

The Justinianic Plague, which started in the sixth century and lasted to the mid eighth century, is thought to be the first of three historically documented plague pandemics causing massive casualties. Historical accounts and molecular data suggest the bacterium Yersinia pestis as its etiological agent. Here we present a new high-coverage (17.9-fold) Y. pestis genome obtained from a sixth-century skeleton recovered from a southern German burial site close to Munich. The reconstructed genome enabled the detection of 30 unique substitutions as well as structural differences that have not been previously described. We report indels affecting a lacl family transcription regulator gene as well as nonsynonymous substitutions in the nrdE, fadJ, and pcp genes, that have been suggested as plague virulence determinants or have been shown to be upregulated in different models of plague infection. In addition, we identify 19 false positive substitutions in a previously published lower-coverage Y. pestis genome from another archaeological site of the same time period and geographical region that is otherwise genetically identical to the high-coverage genome sequence reported here, suggesting low-genetic diversity of the plague during the sixth century in rural southern Germany.

Next‐generation ice core technology reveals true minimum natural levels of lead (Pb) in the atmosphere: Insights from the Black Death

Abstract Contrary to widespread assumptions, next‐generation high (annual to multiannual) and ultra‐high (subannual) resolution analyses of an Alpine glacier reveal that true historical minimum natural levels of lead in the atmosphere occurred only once in the last ~2000 years. During the Black Death pandemic, demographic and economic collapse interrupted metal production and atmospheric lead dropped to undetectable levels. This finding challenges current government and industry understanding of preindustrial lead pollution and its potential implications for human health of children and adults worldwide. Available technology and geographic location have limited previous ice core investigations. We provide new high‐ (discrete, inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, ICP‐MS) and ultra‐high resolution (laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, LA‐ICP‐MS) records of atmospheric lead deposition extracted from the high Alpine glacier Colle Gnifetti, in the Swiss‐Italian Alps. We show that contrary to the conventional wisdom, low levels at or approaching natural background occurred only in a single 4 year period in ~2000 years documented in the new ice core, during the Black Death (~1349–1353 C.E.), the most devastating pandemic in Eurasian history. Ultra‐high chronological resolution allows for the first time detailed and decisive comparison of the new glaciochemical data with historical records. Historical evidence shows that mining activity ceased upwind of the core site from ~1349 to 1353, while concurrently on the glacier lead (Pb) concentrations—dated by layer counting confirmed by radiocarbon dating—dropped to levels below detection, an order of magnitude beneath figures deemed low in earlier studies. Previous assumptions about preindustrial “natural” background lead levels in the atmosphere—and potential impacts on humans—have been misleading, with significant implications for current environmental, industrial, and public health policy, as well as for the history of human lead exposure. Trans‐disciplinary application of this new technology opens the door to new approaches to the study of the anthropogenic impact on past and present human health.

History's Changing Climate: Climate Science, Genomics, and the Emerging Consilient Approach to Interdisciplinary History

Consilience refers to the quality of investigations that draw conclusions from forms of evidence that are epistemologically distinct. The term seems particularly apt for conclusions produced by natural-scientific investigations on the one hand and by historical and archaeological studies on the other. Consilience points to areas of underlying unity of humanistic and scientific investigation— a unity arising from that of reality itself; it represents a convergence in parallel but independent investigations that results in deductions that are much more robust than any investigation would be able to produce on its own.

Tracking mass death during the fall of Rome’s empire (I)

This is the first part of a two-part article; the second, “A first inventory of mass graves from late antiquity”, will appear in JRA 29 (2016) as well as on the CJO website. The Roman empire was more than a system of institutions, beliefs and socio-economic structures; it was a concentration of human capital, physically located in the demographic strength of the population. Human health and mortality crucially affected, and reflected, the economy. As less optimistic interpretations of Late Roman history regain traction, it becomes important to find ways to test such interpretations, including their biological manifestations and implications. One approach would be to map over time and space large-scale violence and disease-driven surges in mortality, as well as chronic factors that may have more gradually eroded the empire’s human capital. Biomolecular archaeology and pathogen genetics are sparking novel explorations of ancient diseases, which ranged from the spectacularly acute to the chronic – malaria, leprosy or tuberculosis –, not to mention seasonal spikes in more routine gastrointestinal infections and the like. Individually and especially cumulatively, the impact of acute and chronic factors could have been of considerable magnitude. The same is true for environmental conditions; thanks to the advances of paleoclimate science, we now know that they too varied unexpectedly, and surely could affect population health.