Michelle N. Clements

An ecologist's guide to the animal model.

1. Efforts to understand the links between evolutionary and ecological dynamics hinge on our ability to measure and understand how genes influence phenotypes, fitness and population dynamics. Quantitative genetics provides a range of theoretical and empirical tools with which to achieve this when the relatedness between individuals within a population is known. 2. A number of recent studies have used a type of mixed-effects model, known as the animal model, to estimate the genetic component of phenotypic variation using data collected in the field. Here, we provide a practical guide for ecologists interested in exploring the potential to apply this quantitative genetic method in their research. 3. We begin by outlining, in simple terms, key concepts in quantitative genetics and how an animal model estimates relevant quantitative genetic parameters, such as heritabilities or genetic correlations. 4. We then provide three detailed example tutorials, for implementation in a variety of software packages, for some basic applications of the animal model. We discuss several important statistical issues relating to best practice when fitting different kinds of mixed models. 5. We conclude by briefly summarizing more complex applications of the animal model, and by highlighting key pitfalls and dangers for the researcher wanting to begin using quantitative genetic tools to address ecological and evolutionary questions.

Inter‐ and Intrasexual Variation in Aging Patterns across Reproductive Traits in a Wild Red Deer Population

In polygynous species, adult mortality is generally higher in males than in females, and theory predicts that this should result in the evolution of faster rates of senescence in males. Detailed investigations of sex differences in patterns of aging across the many and varied phenotypic characteristics associated with successful reproduction in wild populations of polygynous vertebrates are currently lacking. Here, we use longitudinal data collected from a wild red deer population to compare aging patterns across a range of life‐history, behavioral, and morphological traits in both sexes. While males showed more rapid age‐related declines in annual breeding success than did females, there was evidence of variation in aging rates among traits within each sex. Traits associated with male breeding performance showed a rapid decline in old age, whereas the morphology and phenology of antlers, a key male secondary sexual characteristic, showed minimal senescence. Female reproductive traits associated with regulation of estrus and gestation showed delayed senescence relative to traits associated with investment in offspring growth during gestation and lactation. Our results suggest that either natural selection or physiological constraint has caused an uncoupling of senescence rates in different physiological systems and, thus, different reproductive traits in this wild vertebrate population.

VARIANCES AND COVARIANCES OF PHENOLOGICAL TRAITS IN A WILD MAMMAL POPULATION

In a seasonal environment, there are multiple aspects of timing, or phenology, that contribute to an individuals fitness. Several studies have shown a genetic basis to variation between individuals in breeding time, but we know little about the heritability of other phenological traits in wild populations. Furthermore, the presence of genetic correlations between phenological variables could act to constrain or promote any response to selection, but less is known of the multivariate genetic relationships underlying phenological traits in the wild. Here, we use data from a wild population of red deer on the Isle of Rum, Scotland, to investigate covariances between eight phenological traits. Variation was characterized at the level of the phenotype, genotype, and year, and traits measured in different sexes enabled us to test for cross‐sex genetic correlations. Phenotypic correlations were broadly strong and positive, as were correlations between traits expressed in the same year. We found evidence of significant additive genetic variation in five of the eight phenological traits studied. However there was little evidence of genetic correlations between traits, implying that much of the observed phenotypic correlation was environmentally induced. Our results suggest that different phenological traits may be free to move along independent evolutionary trajectories.

Getting the timing right: antler growth phenology and sexual selection in a wild red deer population

There has been growing interest in the determinants of the annual timing of biological phenomena, or phenology, in wild populations, but research on vertebrate taxa has primarily focused on the phenology of reproduction. We present here analyses of the phenology of the annual growth of a secondary sexual characteristic, antlers in red deer (Cervus elaphus) males. The long-term individual-based data from a wild population of red deer on the Isle of Rum, Scotland allow us to consider ecological factors influencing variation in the phenology of growth of antlers, and the implications of variation in antler growth phenology with respect to the phenotype of antler grown (antler mass) and annual breeding success. The phenology of antler growth was influenced by local environmental conditions: higher population density delayed both the start date (during spring) and the relative end date (in late summer) of antler growth, and warmer temperatures in the September and April prior to growth advanced start and end dates, respectively. Furthermore, there was variation between individuals in this phenotypic plasticity of start date, although not in that of end date of growth. The phenology of antler growth impacted on the morphology of antlers grown, with individuals who started and ended growth earliest having the heaviest antlers. The timing of antler growth phenology was associated with breeding success in the following mating season, independently of the mass of antlers grown: an earlier start of antler growth was associated with siring a higher number of the calves born the following spring. Our results suggest that the phenology of traits that are not directly correlated with offspring survival may also regularly show correlations with fitness.

Countrywide reassessment of Schistosoma mansoni infection in Burundi using a urine-circulating cathodic antigen rapid test: informing the national control program

Following implementation of the national control program, a reassessment of Schistosoma mansoni prevalence was conducted in Burundi to determine the feasibility of moving toward elimination. A countrywide cluster-randomized cross-sectional study was performed in May 2014. At least 25 schools were sampled from each of five eco-epidemiological risk zones for schistosomiasis. Fifty randomly selected children 13–14 years of age per school were included for a single urine-circulating cathodic antigen (CCA) rapid test and, in a subset of schools, for duplicate Kato-Katz slide preparation from a single stool sample. A total of 17,331 children from 347 schools were tested using CCA. The overall prevalence of S. mansoni infection, when CCA trace results were considered negative, was 13.5% (zone range [zr] = 4.6–17.8%), and when CCA trace results were considered positive, it was 42.8% (zr = 34.3–49.9%). In 170 schools, prevalence of this infection determined using Kato-Katz method was 1.5% (zr ==0–2.7%). The overall mean intensity of S. mansoni infection determined using Kato-Katz was 0.85 eggs per gram (standard deviation = 10.86). A majority of schools (84%) were classified as non-endemic (prevalence = 0) using Kato-Katz; however, a similar proportion of schools were classified as endemic when CCA trace results were considered negative (85%) and nearly all (98%) were endemic when CCA trace results were considered positive. The findings of this nationwide reassessment using a CCA rapid test indicate that Schistosoma infection is still widespread in Burundi, although its average intensity is probably low. Further evidence is now needed to determine the association between CCA rapid test positivity and low-intensity disease transmission.

Optimising cluster survey design for planning schistosomiasis preventive chemotherapy

Background The cornerstone of current schistosomiasis control programmes is delivery of praziquantel to at-risk populations. Such preventive chemotherapy requires accurate information on the geographic distribution of infection, yet the performance of alternative survey designs for estimating prevalence and converting this into treatment decisions has not been thoroughly evaluated. Methodology/Principal findings We used baseline schistosomiasis mapping surveys from three countries (Malawi, Côte d’Ivoire and Liberia) to generate spatially realistic gold standard datasets, against which we tested alternative two-stage cluster survey designs. We assessed how sampling different numbers of schools per district (2–20) and children per school (10–50) influences the accuracy of prevalence estimates and treatment class assignment, and we compared survey cost-efficiency using data from Malawi. Due to the focal nature of schistosomiasis, up to 53% simulated surveys involving 2–5 schools per district failed to detect schistosomiasis in low endemicity areas (1–10% prevalence). Increasing the number of schools surveyed per district improved treatment class assignment far more than increasing the number of children sampled per school. For Malawi, surveys of 15 schools per district and 20–30 children per school reliably detected endemic schistosomiasis and maximised cost-efficiency. In sensitivity analyses where treatment costs and the country considered were varied, optimal survey size was remarkably consistent, with cost-efficiency maximised at 15–20 schools per district. Conclusions/Significance Among two-stage cluster surveys for schistosomiasis, our simulations indicated that surveying 15–20 schools per district and 20–30 children per school optimised cost-efficiency and minimised the risk of under-treatment, with surveys involving more schools of greater cost-efficiency as treatment costs rose.

Latent class analysis to evaluate performance of point-of-care CCA for low-intensity Schistosoma mansoni infections in Burundi

BackgroundKato-Katz examination of stool smears is the field-standard method for detecting Schistosoma mansoni infection. However, Kato-Katz misses many active infections, especially of light intensity. Point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen (CCA) is an alternative field diagnostic that is more sensitive than Kato-Katz when intensity is low, but interpretation of CCA-trace results is unclear. To evaluate trace results, we tested urine and stool specimens from 398 pupils from eight schools in Burundi using four approaches: two in Burundi and two in a laboratory in Leiden, the Netherlands. In Burundi, we used Kato-Katz and point-of-care CCA (CCAB). In Leiden, we repeated the CCA (CCAL) and also used Up-Converting Phosphor Circulating Anodic Antigen (CAA).MethodsWe applied Bayesian latent class analyses (LCA), first considering CCA traces as negative and then as positive. We used the LCA output to estimate validity of the prevalence estimates of each test in comparison to the population-level infection prevalence and estimated the proportion of trace results that were likely true positives.ResultsKato-Katz yielded the lowest prevalence (6.8%), and CCAB with trace considered positive yielded the highest (53.5%). There were many more trace results recorded by CCA in Burundi (32.4%) than in Leiden (2.3%). Estimated prevalence with CAA was 46.5%. LCA indicated that Kato-Katz had the lowest sensitivity: 15.9% [Bayesian Credible Interval (BCI): 9.2–23.5%] with CCA-trace considered negative and 15.0% with trace as positive (BCI: 9.6–21.4%), implying that Kato-Katz missed approximately 85% of infections. CCAB underestimated disease prevalence when trace was considered negative and overestimated disease prevalence when trace was considered positive, by approximately 12 percentage points each way, and CAA overestimated prevalence in both models. Our results suggest that approximately 52.2% (BCI: 37.8–5.8%) of the CCAB trace readings were true infections.ConclusionsWhether measured in the laboratory or the field, CCA outperformed Kato-Katz at the low infection intensities in Burundi. CCA with trace as negative likely missed many infections, whereas CCA with trace as positive overestimated prevalence. In the absence of a field-friendly gold standard diagnostic, the use of a variety of diagnostics with differing properties will become increasingly important as programs move towards elimination of schistosomiasis. It is clear that CCA is a valuable tool for the detection and mapping of S. mansoni infection in the field and CAA may be a valuable field tool in the future.

Interpreting ambiguous ‘trace’ results in Schistosoma mansoni CCA Tests: Estimating sensitivity and specificity of ambiguous results with no gold standard

Background The development of new diagnostics is an important tool in the fight against disease. Latent Class Analysis (LCA) is used to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of tests in the absence of a gold standard. The main field diagnostic for Schistosoma mansoni infection, Kato-Katz (KK), is not very sensitive at low infection intensities. A point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen (CCA) test has been shown to be more sensitive than KK. However, CCA can return an ambiguous ‘trace’ result between ‘positive’ and ‘negative’, and much debate has focused on interpretation of traces results. Methodology/Principle findings We show how LCA can be extended to include ambiguous trace results and analyse S. mansoni studies from both Côte d’Ivoire (CdI) and Uganda. We compare the diagnostic performance of KK and CCA and the observed results by each test to the estimated infection prevalence in the population. Prevalence by KK was higher in CdI (13.4%) than in Uganda (6.1%), but prevalence by CCA was similar between countries, both when trace was assumed to be negative (CCAtn: 11.7% in CdI and 9.7% in Uganda) and positive (CCAtp: 20.1% in CdI and 22.5% in Uganda). The estimated sensitivity of CCA was more consistent between countries than the estimated sensitivity of KK, and estimated infection prevalence did not significantly differ between CdI (20.5%) and Uganda (19.1%). The prevalence by CCA with trace as positive did not differ significantly from estimates of infection prevalence in either country, whereas both KK and CCA with trace as negative significantly underestimated infection prevalence in both countries. Conclusions Incorporation of ambiguous results into an LCA enables the effect of different treatment thresholds to be directly assessed and is applicable in many fields. Our results showed that CCA with trace as positive most accurately estimated infection prevalence.

Assessing the benefits of five years of different approaches to treatment of urogenital schistosomiasis: A SCORE project in Northern Mozambique

Background In Mozambique, schistosomiasis is highly endemic across the whole country. The Schistosomiasis Consortium for Operational Research and Evaluation (SCORE) coordinates a five-year study that has been implemented in various African countries, including Mozambique. The overall goal of SCORE was to better understand how to best apply preventive chemotherapy with praziquantel (PZQ) for schistosomiasis control by evaluating the impact of alternative treatment approaches. Methods This was a cluster-randomised trial that compared the impact of different treatment strategies in study areas with prevalence among school children of ≥21% S. haematobium infection by urine dipstick. Each village was randomly allocated to one of six possible combinations of community-wide treatment (CWT), school-based treatment (SBT), and/or drug holidays over a period of four years, followed by final data collection in the fifth year. The most intense intervention arm involved four years of CWT, while the least intensive arm involved two years of SBT followed by two consecutive years of PZQ holiday. Each study arm included 25 villages randomly assigned to one of the six treatment arms. The primary outcome of interest was change in prevalence and intensity of S. haematobium among 100 children aged 9-to-12-years that were sampled each year in every village. In addition to children aged 9-to-12 years, 100 children aged 5–8 years in their first-year of school and 50 adults (aged 20–55 years) were tested in the first and final fifth year of the study. Prevalence and intensity of S. haematobium infection was evaluated by two filtrations, each of 10mL, from a single urine specimen. Principal findings In total, data was collected from 81,167 individuals across 149 villages in ten districts of Cabo Delgado province, Northern Mozambique. Overall PZQ treatment resulted in a significant reduction in the prevalence of S. haematobium infection from Year 1 to Year 5, where the average prevalence went from 60.5% to 38.8%, across all age groups and treatment arms. The proportion of those heavily infected also reduced from 17.6% to 11.9% over five years. There was a significantly higher likelihood of males being infected than females at baseline, but no significant difference between the sexes in their response to treatment. The only significant response based on a study arm was seen in both the 9-to-12-year-old and first-year cross sections, where two consecutive treatment holidays resulted in a significantly higher final prevalence of S. haematobium than no treatment holidays. When the arms were grouped together, four rounds of treatment (regardless of whether it was CWT or SBT), however, did result in a significantly greater reduction in S. haematobium prevalence than two rounds of treatment (i.e. with two intermittent or consecutive holiday years) over a five-year period. Conclusions Although PC was successful in reducing the burden of active infection, even among those heavily infected, annual CWT did not have a significantly greater impact on disease prevalence or intensity than less intense treatment arms. This may be due to extremely high starting prevalence and intensity in the study area, with frequent exposure to reinfection, or related to challenges in achieving high treatment coverage More frequent treatment had a greater impact on prevalence and intensity of infection when arms were grouped by number of treatments, however, cost efficiency was greater in arms only receiving two treatments. Finally, a significant reduction in prevalence of S. haematobium was seen in adults even in the SBT arms implying the rate of transmission in the community had been decreased, even where only school children have been treated, which has significant logistical and cost-saving implications for a national control programme in justifying CWT.