Fumiyoshi Kasagi

Studies of the Mortality of Atomic Bomb Survivors, Report 14, 1950–2003: An Overview of Cancer and Noncancer Diseases

This is the 14th report in a series of periodic general reports on mortality in the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of atomic bomb survivors followed by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation to investigate the late health effects of the radiation from the atomic bombs. During the period 1950–2003, 58% of the 86,611 LSS cohort members with DS02 dose estimates have died. The 6 years of additional follow-up since the previous report provide substantially more information at longer periods after radiation exposure (17% more cancer deaths), especially among those under age 10 at exposure (58% more deaths). Poisson regression methods were used to investigate the magnitude of the radiation-associated risks, the shape of the dose response, and effect modification by gender, age at exposure, and attained age. The risk of all causes of death was positively associated with radiation dose. Importantly, for solid cancers the additive radiation risk (i.e., excess cancer cases per 104 person-years per Gy) continues to increase throughout life with a linear dose–response relationship. The sex-averaged excess relative risk per Gy was 0.42 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.32, 0.53] for all solid cancer at age 70 years after exposure at age 30 based on a linear model. The risk increased by about 29% per decade decrease in age at exposure (95% CI: 17%, 41%). The estimated lowest dose range with a significant ERR for all solid cancer was 0 to 0.20 Gy, and a formal dose-threshold analysis indicated no threshold; i.e., zero dose was the best estimate of the threshold. The risk of cancer mortality increased significantly for most major sites, including stomach, lung, liver, colon, breast, gallbladder, esophagus, bladder and ovary, whereas rectum, pancreas, uterus, prostate and kidney parenchyma did not have significantly increased risks. An increased risk of non-neoplastic diseases including the circulatory, respiratory and digestive systems was observed, but whether these are causal relationships requires further investigation. There was no evidence of a radiation effect for infectious or external causes of death.

Radiation exposure and circulatory disease risk: Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivor data, 1950-2003

Objective To investigate the degree to which ionising radiation confers risk of mortality from heart disease and stroke. Design Prospective cohort study with more than 50 years of follow-up. Setting Atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan. Participants 86 611 Life Span Study cohort members with individually estimated radiation doses from 0 to >3 Gy (86% received <0.2 Gy). Main outcome measures Mortality from stroke or heart disease as the underlying cause of death and dose-response relations with atomic bomb radiation. Results About 9600 participants died of stroke and 8400 died of heart disease between 1950 and 2003. For stroke, the estimated excess relative risk per gray was 9% (95% confidence interval 1% to 17%, P=0.02) on the basis of a linear dose-response model, but an indication of possible upward curvature suggested relatively little risk at low doses. For heart disease, the estimated excess relative risk per gray was 14% (6% to 23%, P<0.001); a linear model provided the best fit, suggesting excess risk even at lower doses. However, the dose-response effect over the restricted dose range of 0 to 0.5 Gy was not significant. Prospective data on smoking, alcohol intake, education, occupation, obesity, and diabetes had almost no impact on the radiation risk estimates for either stroke or heart disease, and misdiagnosis of cancers as circulatory diseases could not account for the associations seen. Conclusion Doses above 0.5 Gy are associated with an elevated risk of both stroke and heart disease, but the degree of risk at lower doses is unclear. Stroke and heart disease together account for about one third as many radiation associated excess deaths as do cancers among atomic bomb survivors.

Solid Cancer Incidence in Atomic Bomb Survivors Exposed In Utero or as Young Children

BACKGROUND In utero exposure to radiation is known to increase risks of childhood cancers, and childhood exposure is associated with increased risks of adult-onset cancers. However, little is known about whether in utero exposure to radiation increases risks of adult-onset cancers. METHODS Solid cancer incidence rates were examined among survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki who were in utero (n = 2452) or younger than 6 years (n = 15388) at the time of the bombings. Poisson regression was used to estimate and compare the levels and temporal patterns of the radiation-associated excess risks of first primary solid cancers among these survivors at ages 12-55. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS There were 94 eligible cancers in the in utero group and 649 in the early childhood group. The excess relative risk (ERR) increased with dose for both in utero (age 50, ERR = 1.0 per Sv, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.2 to 2.3 per Sv) and early childhood (age 50, ERR = 1.7 per Sv, 95% CI = 1.1 to 2.5 Sv) exposures. The ERR declined (P = .046) with increasing attained age in the combined cohort. Excess absolute rates (EARs) increased markedly with attained age among those exposed in early childhood but exhibited little change in the in utero group. At age 50, the estimated EARs per 10,000 person-years per Sv were 6.8 (95% CI = <0 to 49) for those exposed in utero and 56 (95% CI = 36 to 79) for those exposed as young children. CONCLUSIONS Both the in utero and early childhood groups exhibited statistically significant dose-related increases in incidence rates of solid cancers. The apparent difference in EARs between the two groups suggests that lifetime risks following in utero exposure may be considerably lower than for early childhood exposure, but further follow-up is needed.

Association Between Dementia and Midlife Risk Factors: the Radiation Effects Research Foundation Adult Health Study

OBJECTIVES:  To investigate the association between midlife risk factors and the development of vascular dementia (VaD) or Alzheimers disease (AD) 25 to 30 years later.

Risk factors for hip fracture in a Japanese cohort

Risk factors for hip fracture were determined from a Japanese cohort. A cohort of 4573 people (mean age 58.5 ± 12.2) who participated in the Adult Health Study in 1978–1980 were subsequently followed by biennial examinations up to 1992. Fifty‐five incident hip fractures not due to traffic accidents were identified by medical records during the follow‐up period. Poisson regression analysis showed that baseline low body mass index (BMI), regular alcohol intake, prevalent vertebral fracture, and having five or more children significantly increased the risk of hip fracture, and low milk intake and later age at menarche were marginally associated with increased fracture risk, after multivariable adjustment. Regular alcohol intake doubled the risk of hip fracture (relative risk 1.91, 95% confidence interval 1.07–3.42). Those individuals who had a vertebral fracture had 2.6 times higher risk than those who did not. The risk was 2.5 times higher among women who had five or more children than women with one or two. Body height, health status, marital status, intake of fish, coffee, tea, Japanese tea, smoking, exposure to atomic bomb radiation, and age at menopause were not associated with hip fracture. Relative risk for hip fracture decreased with decreasing number of preventable risk factors (low BMI, low milk intake, and regular alcohol intake). We conclude that many factors, such as BMI, milk intake, alcohol intake, prevalent vertebral fracture, age at menarche, and number of children, are related to the risk of hip fracture, and prevention programs need to focus on reducing preventable risk factors.

Fracture Prediction From Bone Mineral Density in Japanese Men and Women

In a cohort of 2356 Japanese elderly, after adjusting for age and prevalent vertebral fracture, baseline BMD predicted the risk of spine and hip fracture with similar RR to that obtained from previous reports in whites. The RR per SD decrease in BMD for fracture declined with age.

Relation Between Cold Pressor Test and Development of Hypertension Based on 28-Year Follow-up

The present study examined the relation between blood pressure reactivity to cold stimulus and the subsequent development of hypertension based on a follow-up study from 1960 through 1988 of 824 normotensive participants (mean age, 35.8 +/- 10.8 years) in the Adult Health Study in Nagasaki, Japan. Hypertension developed in 343 individuals during the 28 years of follow-up, with a mean incidence rate of 24.6 per 10(3) person-years. Confounding variables, including attained age, resting systolic and diastolic blood pressures, and body mass index at baseline, were adjusted using a Poisson regression model. Systolic response was found to be an independent and significant predictor. The relative risk of hypertension for systolic hyperreactors was 1.37, with a 95% confidence interval of 1.10 to 1.71. Diastolic response was significant only when resting diastolic blood pressure was also considered. The cold pressor test appears to be useful if performed on middle-aged subjects older than 40 years at the time of examination, when hypertension is more prevalent. The current results support the hypothesis that hyperreactivity is a predictor of the development of hypertension.

Radiation dose-dependent increases in inflammatory response markers in A-bomb survivors

Purpose : The well-documented increases in malignant tumours in the A-bomb survivors have recently been supplemented by reports that non-cancer diseases, including cardiovascular disease, may also have increased in incidence with increasing radiation dose. Given that low-level inflammatory responses are widely accepted as a significant risk factor for such diseases, we undertook a detailed investigation of the long-term effects of ionizing radiation on the levels of the inflammatory markers C-reactive protein (CRP) and interleukin 6 (IL-6) in A-bomb survivors. Materials and methods : Blood samples were taken from 453 participants in a long-term epidemiological cohort of A-bomb survivors. Plasma levels of CRP and IL-6 were measured using standard antibody-mediated procedures. Relationships between CRP or IL-6 levels and radiation dose were then investigated by multivariate regression analysis. Blood lymphocytes from each individual were used for immunophenotyping by flow cytometry with murine monoclonal antibodies to CD3, CD4 and CD8. Results : CRP levels were significantly increased by about 31% Gy −1 of estimated A-bomb radiation (p =0.0001). Higher CRP levels also correlated with age, male gender, body mass index and a history of myocardial infarction. After adjustments for these factors, CRP levels still appeared to have increased significantly with increasing radiation dose (about 28% increase at 1Gy, p =0.0002). IL-6 levels also appeared to have increased with radiation dose by 9.3% at 1Gy (p =0.0003) and after multiple adjustments by 9.8% at 1Gy (p =0.0007). The elevated CRP and IL-6 levels were associated with decreases in the percentages of CD4 + helper T-cells in peripheral blood lymphocyte populations. Conclusions : Our results appear to indicate that exposure to A-bomb radiation has caused significant increases in inflammatory activity that are still demonstrable in the blood of A-bomb survivors and which may lead to increased risks of cardiovascular disease and other non-cancer diseases.

Prevalence and risks of dementia in the Japanese population : RERF's adult health study Hiroshima subjects

OBJECTIVES: To study the prevalence rate of dementia and its subtypes in Japan and to investigate the relationship of risk factors, such as demographic features and disease history, to the prevalence of Alzheimers disease or vascular dementia.

Ionizing Radiation and Leukemia Mortality among Japanese Atomic Bomb Survivors, 1950–2000

Abstract This paper provides the first comprehensive report on mortality by type of leukemia among the Japanese atomic bomb survivors in the Life Span Study (LSS). Analyses include 310 deaths due to leukemia during the period 1950–2000 among 86,611 people in the LSS. Poisson regression methods were used to evaluate associations between estimated bone marrow dose and leukemia mortality. Attention was given to variation in the radiation dose–leukemia mortality association by time since exposure, age at exposure, city and sex. The excess relative rate per gray of acute myeloid leukemia was best described by a quadratic dose–response function that peaked approximately 10 years after exposure. Acute lymphatic leukemia and chronic myeloid leukemia mortality were best described by a linear dose–response function that did not vary with time since exposure. Adult T-cell leukemia was not associated with estimated bone marrow dose. Overall, 103 of the 310 observed leukemia deaths were estimated to be excess deaths due to radiation exposure. In the most recent decade of observation (1991–2000), the estimated attributable fraction of leukemia deaths among those survivors exposed to >0.005 Gy was 0.34, suggesting that the effect of the atomic bombings on leukemia mortality has persisted in this cohort for more than five decades.