Mirjam van Veen

Clinical prediction model to aid emergency doctors managing febrile children at risk of serious bacterial infections: diagnostic study.

Objective To derive, cross validate, and externally validate a clinical prediction model that assesses the risks of different serious bacterial infections in children with fever at the emergency department. Design Prospective observational diagnostic study. Setting Three paediatric emergency care units: two in the Netherlands and one in the United Kingdom. Participants Children with fever, aged 1 month to 15 years, at three paediatric emergency care units: Rotterdam (n=1750) and the Hague (n=967), the Netherlands, and Coventry (n=487), United Kingdom. A prediction model was constructed using multivariable polytomous logistic regression analysis and included the predefined predictor variables age, duration of fever, tachycardia, temperature, tachypnoea, ill appearance, chest wall retractions, prolonged capillary refill time (>3 seconds), oxygen saturation <94%, and C reactive protein. Main outcome measures Pneumonia, other serious bacterial infections (SBIs, including septicaemia/meningitis, urinary tract infections, and others), and no SBIs. Results Oxygen saturation <94% and presence of tachypnoea were important predictors of pneumonia. A raised C reactive protein level predicted the presence of both pneumonia and other SBIs, whereas chest wall retractions and oxygen saturation <94% were useful to rule out the presence of other SBIs. Discriminative ability (C statistic) to predict pneumonia was 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.73 to 0.88); for other SBIs this was even better: 0.86 (0.79 to 0.92). Risk thresholds of 10% or more were useful to identify children with serious bacterial infections; risk thresholds less than 2.5% were useful to rule out the presence of serious bacterial infections. External validation showed good discrimination for the prediction of pneumonia (0.81, 0.69 to 0.93); discriminative ability for the prediction of other SBIs was lower (0.69, 0.53 to 0.86). Conclusion A validated prediction model, including clinical signs, symptoms, and C reactive protein level, was useful for estimating the likelihood of pneumonia and other SBIs in children with fever, such as septicaemia/meningitis and urinary tract infections.

Reliability and validity of triage systems in paediatric emergency care

BackgroundTriage in paediatric emergency care is an important tool to prioritize seriously ill children. Triage can also be used to identify patients who do not need urgent care and who can safely wait. The aim of this review was to provide an overview of the literature on reliability and validity of current triage systems in paediatric emergency careMethodsWe performed a search in Pubmed and Cochrane on studies on reliability and validity of triage systems in childrenResultsThe Manchester Triage System (MTS), the Emergency Severity Index (ESI), the Paediatric Canadian Triage and Acuity Score (paedCTAS) and the Australasian Triage Scale (ATS) are common used triage systems and contain specific parts for children. The reliability of the MTS is good and reliability of the ESI is moderate to good. Reliability of the paedCTAS is moderate and is poor to moderate for the ATS.The internal validity is moderate for the MTS and confirmed for the CTAS, but not studied for the most recent version of the ESI, which contains specific fever criteria for children.ConclusionThe MTS and paedCTAS both seem valid to triage children in paediatric emergency care. Reliability of the MTS is good, moderate to good for the ESI and moderate for the paedCTAS. More studies are necessary to evaluate if one triage system is superior over other systems when applied in emergency care.

The Manchester triage system: Improvements for paediatric emergency care

Objective To improve the Manchester Triage System (MTS) in paediatric emergency care. Methods The authors performed a prospective observational study at the emergency departments of a university and teaching hospital in The Netherlands and included children attending in 2007 and 2008. The authors developed and implemented specific age-dependent modifications for the MTS, based on patient groups where the systems performance was low. Nurses applied the modified system in 11 481 (84%) patients. The reference standard for urgency defined five levels based on a combination of vital signs at presentation, potentially life-threatening conditions, diagnostic resources, therapeutic interventions and follow-up. The reference standard for urgency was previously defined and available in 11 260/11 481 (96%) patients. Results Compared with the original MTS specificity improved from 79% (95% CI 79% to 80%) to 87% (95% CI 86% to 87%) while sensitivity remained similar ((63%, 95% CI 59% to 66%) vs (64%, 95% CI 60% to 68%)). The diagnostic OR increased (4.1 vs 11). Conclusions Modifications of the MTS for paediatric emergency care resulted in an improved specificity while sensitivity remained unchanged. Further research should focus on the improvement of sensitivity.

Improving the Manchester Triage System for pediatric emergency care: an international multicenter study

Objectives This multicenter study examines the performance of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) after changing discriminators, and with the addition use of abnormal vital sign in patients presenting to pediatric emergency departments (EDs). Design International multicenter study Settings EDs of two hospitals in The Netherlands (2006–2009), one in Portugal (November–December 2010), and one in UK (June–November 2010). Patients Children (<16years) triaged with the MTS who presented at the ED. Methods Changes to discriminators (MTS 1) and the value of including abnormal vital signs (MTS 2) were studied to test if this would decrease the number of incorrect assignment. Admission to hospital using the new MTS was compared with those in the original MTS. Likelihood ratios, diagnostic odds ratios (DORs), and c-statistics were calculated as measures for performance and compared with the original MTS. To calculate likelihood ratios and DORs, the MTS had to be dichotomized in low urgent and high urgent. Results 60,375 patients were included, of whom 13% were admitted. When MTS 1 was used, admission to hospital increased from 25% to 29% for MTS ‘very urgent’ patients and remained similar in lower MTS urgency levels. The diagnostic odds ratio improved from 4.8 (95%CI 4.5–5.1) to 6.2 (95%CI 5.9–6.6) and the c-statistic remained 0.74. MTS 2 did not improve the performance of the MTS. Conclusions MTS 1 performed slightly better than the original MTS. The use of vital signs (MTS 2) did not improve the MTS performance.

Accuracy of Triage for Children With Chronic Illness and Infectious Symptoms

OBJECTIVE: This prospective observational study aimed to assess the validity of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) for children with chronic illnesses who presented to the emergency department (ED) with infectious symptoms. METHODS: Children (<16 years old) presenting to the ED of a university hospital between 2008 and 2011 with dyspnea, diarrhea/vomiting, or fever were included. Chronic illness was classified on the basis of International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification, codes. The validity of the MTS was assessed by comparing the urgency categories of the MTS with an independent reference standard on the basis of abnormal vital signs, life-threatening working diagnosis, resource utilization, and follow-up. Overtriage, undertriage, and correct triage were calculated for children with and without a chronic illness. The performance was assessed by sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratios, which were calculated by dichotomizing the MTS into high and low urgency. RESULTS: Of the 8592 children who presented to the ED with infectious symptoms, 2960 (35%) had a chronic illness. Undertriage occurred in 16% of children with chronic illnesses and in 11% of children without chronic illnesses (P < .001). Sensitivity of the MTS for children with chronic illnesses was 58% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 53%–62%) and was 74% (95% CI: 70%–78%) for children without chronic illnesses. There was no difference in specificity between the 2 groups. The diagnostic odds ratios for children with and without chronic illnesses were 4.8 (95% CI: 3.9–5.9) and 8.7 (95% CI: 7.1–11), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In children presenting with infectious symptoms, the performance of the MTS was lower for children with chronic illnesses than for children without chronic illnesses. Nurses should be particularly aware of undertriage in children with chronic illnesses.

Self-Referral and Serious Illness in Children With Fever

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to evaluate parents’ capability to assess their febrile child’s severity of illness and decision to present to the emergency department. We compared children referred by a general practitioner (GP) with those self-referred on the basis of illness-severity markers. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional observational study conducted at the emergency departments of a university and a teaching hospital. GP-referred or self-referred children with fever (aged <16 years) who presented to the emergency department (2006–2008) were included. Markers for severity of illness were urgency according to the Manchester Triage System, diagnostic interventions, therapeutic interventions, and follow-up. Associations between markers and referral type were assessed by using logistic regression analysis. Subgroup analyses were performed for patients with the most common presenting problems that accompanied the fever (ie, dyspnea, gastrointestinal complaints, neurologic symptoms, fever without specific symptoms). RESULTS: Thirty-eight percent of 4609 children were referred by their GP and 62% were self-referred. GP-referred children were classified as high urgency (immediate/very urgent categories) in 46% of the cases and self-referrals in 45%. Forty-three percent of GP referrals versus 27% of self-referrals needed extensive diagnostic intervention, intravenous medication/aerosol treatment, hospitalization, or a combination of these (odds ratio: 2.0 [95% confidence interval: 1.75–2.27]). In all subgroups, high urgency was not associated with referral type. GP-referred and self-referred children with dyspnea had similar frequencies of illness-severity markers. CONCLUSIONS: Although febrile self-referred children were less severely ill than GP-referred children, many parents properly judged and acted on the severity of their child’s illness. To avoid delayed or missed diagnoses, recommendations regarding interventions that would discourage self-referral to the emergency department should be reconsidered.

Can urgency classification of the Manchester triage system predict serious bacterial infections in febrile children

Objective To evaluate the discriminative ability of the Manchester triage system (MTS) to identify serious bacterial infections (SBIs) in children with fever in the emergency department (ED) and to study the association between predictors of SBI and discriminators of MTS urgency of care. Methods This prospective observational study included 1255 children with fever (1 month–16 years) attending the ED of the Erasmus MC – Sophia Childrens Hospital, Rotterdam, The Netherlands in 2008–9. Triage urgency was determined with the MTS (urgency (U) level 1–5). The relationship between triage urgency and SBI was assessed with multivariable logistic regression, including effects of age, sex and temperature. Discriminative ability was assessed by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results SBI prevalence was 11% (n=131, 95% CI 9% to 12%). The discriminative value of the MTS for predicting SBI was 0.57 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.62), and the MTS did not contribute to a model including age, sex and temperature. The sensitivity of the MTS (U1–2 vs U3–5) to detect SBI was 0.42 (95% CI 0.33 to 0.51) and specificity was 0.69 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.72). MTS high urgency discriminators include several known predictors of SBI, such as fever, work of breathing, meningism and oxygen saturation, but apply to non-SBI children as well. Conclusion The MTS has poor discriminative ability to predict the presence of SBIs in children presenting with fever to the paediatric ED. Important predictors of SBI are represented within the MTS, but are used in a different way to classify urgency.

Alarming Signs in the Manchester Triage System: A Tool to Identify Febrile Children at Risk of Hospitalization

OBJECTIVES To assess whether the flowcharts and discriminators of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) can be used as indicators of alarming signs of serious febrile illness to predict the risk of hospitalization for febrile children who present at the emergency department (ED). STUDY DESIGN Observational study, which included 2455 children (<16 years) who came to the ED of a university hospital with fever as their main complaint (May 2007-July 2009). Alarming signs for serious febrile illness were matched with MTS flowcharts and discriminators. At triage, the percentage of alarming signs positive was calculated. The diagnostic ability of the percentage of alarming signs positive to identify children at risk of hospitalization was assessed by calculating positive and negative likelihood ratios. RESULTS Thirty percent of children had at least 1 alarming sign positive at triage. Twenty-three percent were hospitalized. Positive likelihood ratios of hospitalization were 5.0 (95% CI: 3.9-6.5) for children with >20% of alarming signs positive at triage and 12.0 (95% CI: 5.2-27.6) for those with >40% of alarming signs positive. Negative likelihood ratios were 0.8 (95% CI: 0.8-0.8) and 1.0 (95% CI: 0.9-1.0), respectively. CONCLUSIONS By alternatively using the flowcharts and discriminators of the MTS as alarming signs, rather than urgency classifiers, the MTS can function as a simple, readily available tool to identify febrile children at risk of hospitalization early in the care process. This knowledge may help to improve ED throughput times as well as admission and discharge management at pediatric EDs.

Referral of nonurgent children from the emergency department to general practice: Compliance and cost savings

Objective To evaluate compliance and costs of referral of nonurgent children, who present at the emergency department, to the general practitioner cooperative (GPC). Materials and methods In a prospective observational before–after study, during 6 months in 2008, the triage nurse discussed referral to the GPC with parents, when self-referred children with a nontraumatic problem, aged 3 months–16 years were triaged as nonurgent (levels 4 and 5) according to the Manchester Triage System. A telephone follow-up was performed 2–4 days after referral. Real costs were calculated for emergency department consultation (preintervention period) and GPC referral (postintervention period). Compliance of referral was studied for 4 days a week. Results One hundred and forty patients were referred to the GPC, of which 101 out of 140 patients (72%) attended a follow-up. After discharge seven patients (7%) had an unscheduled revisit. No patients were subsequently hospitalized. In total 275 patients were included to study compliance, with 28 (10%) reported missing. Ninety-five out of 247 (38%) patients were referred to the general practitioner and 46 out of 247 parents (19%) refused referral. For 106 out of 247 patients (43%) referral was not initiated by the nurse mainly because of comorbidity. Mean costs per patient were &OV0556; 106 for the preintervention period and &OV0556; 101 for the postintervention period. Conclusion Compliance of referring low urgent patients is low, mainly because it was difficult for nursing staff to refer. Total overall cost benefit is minimal. Cost savings may be achieved in different settings, where general practitioner services are colocated and where large numbers can be referred.

Safety of the Manchester Triage System to Detect Critically Ill Children at the Emergency Department.

OBJECTIVE To assess the safety of the Manchester Triage System in pediatric emergency care for children who require admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). STUDY DESIGN Between 2006 and 2013, 50 062 consecutive emergency department visits of children younger than the age of 16 years were included. We determined the percentage of undertriage, defined as the proportion of children admitted to ICU triaged as low urgent according to the Manchester Triage System, and diagnostic performance measures, including sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic OR. Characteristics of undertriaged patients were compared with correctly triaged patients. In a logistic regression model, risk factors for undertriage were determined. RESULTS In total, 238 (28.7%) of the 830 children admitted to ICU during the study period were undertriaged. Sensitivity of high Manchester Triage System urgency levels to detect ICU admission was 71% (95% CI 68%-74%) and specificity 85% (95% CI 85%-85%). Severity of illness was lower in undertriaged children than correctly triaged children admitted to ICU. Risk factors for undertriage were age <3 months, medical presenting problem, comorbidity, referral by a medical specialist or emergency medical services, and presentation during the evening or night shift. CONCLUSION The Manchester Triage System misclassifies a substantial number of children who require ICU admission. Modifications targeted at young children and children with a comorbid condition could possibly improve safety of the Manchester Triage System in pediatric emergency care.