Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi

Foreign and Domestic Shocks: Macroeconomic Responses of ASEAN-3 Countries

Abstract The study provides new empirical evidence on the relative importance of foreign and domestic shocks on selected ASEAN-3 (Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand) macroeconomic variables. Three structural vector auto regression models are estimated for each country. The focal point is given on the formulation of the sources of foreign factors. The first model uses trade-weighted foreign variables of both US and Japan to represent the foreign factors. The other two models use US and Japan by themselves, respectively, to represent the foreign factors. Two important results are emerged. First, foreign sectors play an important role in influencing macroeconomic variables of each of the ASEAN-3 country, especially in the medium and the long-run horizon. Second, most of the time, the Japanese factors are more dominant than the US factors in influencing domestic output and inflation for each of the ASEAN-3 countries.

The balance sheet channel of monetary policy: the panel evidence of Egypt

ABSTRACT This paper examines the effects of monetary policy on firms’ investments in Egypt using disaggregated data and generalized method of moments (GMM) technique. It develops the neoclassical investment model by adding the interaction between user cost of capital and cash flow (CF). Therefore, monetary policy affects investment through three effects: user cost of capital, CF and interaction between them. Using a sample of 124 firms, the empirical finding supports the relevance of balance sheet channel (BSC) and the heterogeneous effect of monetary policy on investment. This finding signals that monetary authority should take cognizance of the stability of interest rate to stabilize firm-level investment.

Dasar fiskal terhadap perbelanjaan swasta: analisis SVAR di Malaysia

Bermula dengan episod belanjawan defisit yang berpanjangan sejak tahun 1998 di NSM, menunjukkan kutipan hasil cukai kerajaan tidak berupaya untuk menampung perbelanjaan yang menyebabkan kerajaan perlu memikirkan sumber pembiayaan alternatif seperti melalui terbitan bon. Mengikut teori dana boleh pinjam, terbitan bon kerajaan menyebabkan penurunan harga bon dan seterusnya cenderung meningkatkan kadar bunga pasaran. Kenaikan kadar bunga pasaran menyebabkan kos dana meningkat yang menyebabkan firma cenderung mengecilkan saiz pelaburan. Ini menyebabkan peningkatan perbelanjaan kerajaan yang dibiayai melalui terbitan bon tidak dapat memberikan kesan sepenuhnya kepada peningkatan pendapatan negara malahan mewujudkan kesan asakan keluar ke atas pelaburan swasta. Kertas ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji keberkesanan dasar fiskal iaitu kejutan positif perbelanjaan kerajaan dan hasil kerajaan (cukai) terhadap pelaburan swasta di Malaysia. Kajian ini menggunakan model SVAR (Structural Vector Autoregressive) dalam ekonomi terbuka bersaiz kecil untuk mengenal pasti tindak balas dinamik kejutan dasar fiskal terhadap pelaburan swasta. Data kajian adalah data siri masa sukuan bagi tempoh 1991:1-2016:3. Analisis fungsi tindak balas impulse dan penguraian varian telah digunakan untuk mengupas keberkesanan dasar fiskal terhadap perbelanjaan swasta. Hasil kajian menunjukkan kesan kejutan perbelanjaan kerajaan mewujudkan kesan asakan keluar terhadap pelaburan swasta manakala bagi penggunaan swasta mengalami kesan positif. Bagi kesan kejutan hasil cukai kerajaan menunjukkan keputusan yang sama iaitu pelaburan swasta mengalami kesan negatif manakala penggunaan swasta mengalami kesan positif.

Firm's investment and monetary policy: Panel analysis of shariah compliant firms in Malaysia

This paper examines the effects of monetary policy on firm balance sheet channel by focusing on syariah compliant firm’s investment spending listed in Bursa Malaysia from year 2003 until 2011. The dynamic panel data method namely Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is used in investigating two monetary policy channels namely interest rates and broad credit channel using a dynamic neoclassical investment model. The sample of the firms has been split into small and large firm to identify the heteregoneity of monetary policy effects on invetsment spending across firm size. The empirical results reveal that both monetary policy channels, namely interest rates and broad credit channel are relevant for the case of Malaysia. This findings indicate that investment spending of syariah compliant firms do respond to monetary policy changes. Moreover, the investments of small firms are more dependent on internal cash flow than that of large firms. Therefore, the policy maker should take into account the differences in firms characteristics in implementing monetary policy to ensure that their policy is effective.