Mohit Dalvi

Strong Constraints on Aerosol-Cloud Interactions from Volcanic Eruptions

Aerosols have a potentially large effect on climate, particularly through their interactions with clouds, but the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain. Large volcanic eruptions produce sulfur dioxide, which in turn produces aerosols; these eruptions thus represent a natural experiment through which to quantify aerosol–cloud interactions. Here we show that the massive 2014–2015 fissure eruption in Holuhraun, Iceland, reduced the size of liquid cloud droplets—consistent with expectations—but had no discernible effect on other cloud properties. The reduction in droplet size led to cloud brightening and global-mean radiative forcing of around −0.2 watts per square metre for September to October 2014. Changes in cloud amount or cloud liquid water path, however, were undetectable, indicating that these indirect effects, and cloud systems in general, are well buffered against aerosol changes. This result will reduce uncertainties in future climate projections, because we are now able to reject results from climate models with an excessive liquid-water-path response.&NA; Aerosols have a potentially large effect on climate, particularly through their interactions with clouds, but the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain. Large volcanic eruptions produce sulfur dioxide, which in turn produces aerosols; these eruptions thus represent a natural experiment through which to quantify aerosol‐cloud interactions. Here we show that the massive 2014‐2015 fissure eruption in Holuhraun, Iceland, reduced the size of liquid cloud droplets—consistent with expectations—but had no discernible effect on other cloud properties. The reduction in droplet size led to cloud brightening and global‐mean radiative forcing of around −0.2 watts per square metre for September to October 2014. Changes in cloud amount or cloud liquid water path, however, were undetectable, indicating that these indirect effects, and cloud systems in general, are well buffered against aerosol changes. This result will reduce uncertainties in future climate projections, because we are now able to reject results from climate models with an excessive liquid‐water‐path response. Investigations of an Icelandic volcanic eruption confirm that sulfate aerosols caused a discernible yet transient brightening effect, as predicted, but their effect on the liquid water path was unexpectedly negligible.

Quantifying the impact of current and future concentrations of air pollutants on respiratory disease risk in England

BackgroundEstimating the long-term health impact of air pollution in a spatio-temporal ecological study requires representative concentrations of air pollutants to be constructed for each geographical unit and time period. Averaging concentrations in space and time is commonly carried out, but little is known about how robust the estimated health effects are to different aggregation functions. A second under researched question is what impact air pollution is likely to have in the future.MethodsWe conducted a study for England between 2007 and 2011, investigating the relationship between respiratory hospital admissions and different pollutants: nitrogen dioxide (NO2); ozone (O3); particulate matter, the latter including particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5), and less than 10 micrometers (PM10); and sulphur dioxide (SO2). Bayesian Poisson regression models accounting for localised spatio-temporal autocorrelation were used to estimate the relative risks (RRs) of pollution on disease risk, and for each pollutant four representative concentrations were constructed using combinations of spatial and temporal averages and maximums. The estimated RRs were then used to make projections of the numbers of likely respiratory hospital admissions in the 2050s attributable to air pollution, based on emission projections from a number of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP).ResultsNO2 exhibited the largest association with respiratory hospital admissions out of the pollutants considered, with estimated increased risks of between 0.9 and 1.6% for a one standard deviation increase in concentrations. In the future the projected numbers of respiratory hospital admissions attributable to NO2 in the 2050s are lower than present day rates under 3 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, which is due to projected reductions in future NO2 emissions and concentrations.ConclusionsNO2 concentrations exhibit consistent substantial present-day health effects regardless of how a representative concentration is constructed in space and time. Thus as concentrations are predicted to remain above limits set by European Union Legislation until the 2030s in parts of urban England, it will remain a substantial health risk for some time.

Using a Virtual Machine environment for developing, testing, and training for the UM-UKCA Composition-Climate Model, using Unified Model version 10.9 and above

The Met Office Unified Model (UM) is a state-ofthe-art weather and climate model that is used operationally worldwide. UKCA is the chemistry and aerosol sub model of the UM that enables interactive composition and physical atmosphere interactions, but which adds an additional 120 000 lines of code to the model. Ensuring that the UM code and UM-UKCA (the UM running with interactive chemistry and aerosols) is well tested is thus essential. While a comprehensive test harness is in place at the Met Office and partner sites to aid in development, this is not available to many UM users. Recently, the Met Office have made available a virtual machine environment that can be used to run the UM on a desktop or laptop PC. Here we describe the development of a UM-UKCA configuration that is able to run within this virtual machine while only needing 6 GB of memory, before discussing the applications of this system for model development, testing, and training. Copyright statement. The works published in this journal are distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. This license does not affect the Crown copyright work, which is re-usable under the Open Government Licence (OGL). The Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License and the OGL are interoperable and do not conflict with, reduce, or limit each other.

Large simulated radiative effects of smoke in the south-east Atlantic

A 1200 km-square area of the tropical south Atlantic Ocean near Ascension Island is studied with the HadGEM climate model at convection-permitting and global resolutions for a ten-day case study period in August 2016. During the simulation period, a plume of biomass burning smoke from Africa moves into the area and mixes into the clouds. At Ascension Island, this smoke episode was the strongest of the 2016 fire season. We examine the interaction of the smoke with clouds and find it has substantial instantaneous direct, indirect and semi-direct radiative effects, which vary in magnitude between model 5 configurations. The region of interest is simulated at 4 km resolution, with no parameterised convection scheme. The simulations are driven by, and compared to, the HadGEM global model, running at approximately 65 km resolution. For the first time, the UK Chemistry and Aerosol model UKCA is included in a regional model with prognostic aerosol number concentrations advecting in from the global model at the boundaries of the region. 10 The smoke aerosol is simulated realistically, and is found to affect dynamical, microphysical and radiative properties of the atmosphere across the region. The model captures the large-scale horizontal transport of the aerosol adequately, approximately reproducing a transition from pristine to polluted conditions. However, for some of the simulation, the smoke is around 1km too low in altitude and therefore, although the smoke mixes into the clouds earlier than observed. Fire emissions increase the total aerosol burden by a factor 3.7 and cloud droplet number concentrations by a factor of 3, which is consistent with MODIS 15 observations. Strong localised perturbations to heating and cooling rates due to the smoke affect the dynamics: iIn the regional model, the inversion height is reduced by up to 200 m when smoke is included. The smoke also affects precipitation, to an extent which depends on the model microphysics. The microphysical and dynamical changes lead to an increase in liquid water path of 60g m−2 relative to a simulation without smoke aerosol, when averaged over the polluted period. This increase is uncertain, and smaller in the global model. It is mostly due to radiatively driven dynamical changes: the reduced entrainment 20 of dry air from above the cloud layer, rather than precipitation suppression by aerosol. Over the 5-day polluted period, the smoke has substantial direct radiative effects of +11.4W m−2 in the regional model, when averaged over the polluted five days of our case study. The, a semi-direct radiative effect of the smoke,a semi-direct effect of −30.5W m−2, and an indirect effect of −10.1W m−2. Our results show that However, the radiative effects are sensitive tothe structure of the model (global versus regional) and the parameterization of rain autoconversion.are sensitive to the model 25 set-up: the semi-direct effect is smaller in the global model, and also in a simulation with the Kogan (2013) parameterisation of autoconversion and accretion instead of the default, from Khairoutdinov & Kogan (2002). Furthermore, we simulate a liquid water path that is biased high compared to satellite observations by 22% on average, and this leads to high estimates of the domain-averaged aerosol direct effect and the effect of the aerosol on cloud albedo. With these caveats, we simulate a large net cooling across the region, of −27.6W m−2. 30