G. W. Mann

Large contribution of natural aerosols to uncertainty in indirect forcing.

The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud droplet concentrations and radiative properties is the source of one of the largest uncertainties in the radiative forcing of climate over the industrial period. This uncertainty affects our ability to estimate how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gas emissions. Here we perform a sensitivity analysis on a global model to quantify the uncertainty in cloud radiative forcing over the industrial period caused by uncertainties in aerosol emissions and processes. Our results show that 45 per cent of the variance of aerosol forcing since about 1750 arises from uncertainties in natural emissions of volcanic sulphur dioxide, marine dimethylsulphide, biogenic volatile organic carbon, biomass burning and sea spray. Only 34 per cent of the variance is associated with anthropogenic emissions. The results point to the importance of understanding pristine pre-industrial-like environments, with natural aerosols only, and suggest that improved measurements and evaluation of simulated aerosols in polluted present-day conditions will not necessarily result in commensurate reductions in the uncertainty of forcing estimates.

The magnitude and causes of uncertainty in global model simulations of cloud condensation nuclei

Abstract. Aerosol–cloud interaction effects are a major source of uncertainty in climate models so it is important to quantify the sources of uncertainty and thereby direct research efforts. However, the computational expense of global aerosol models has prevented a full statistical analysis of their outputs. Here we perform a variance-based analysis of a global 3-D aerosol microphysics model to quantify the magnitude and leading causes of parametric uncertainty in model-estimated present-day concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Twenty-eight model parameters covering essentially all important aerosol processes, emissions and representation of aerosol size distributions were defined based on expert elicitation. An uncertainty analysis was then performed based on a Monte Carlo-type sampling of an emulator built for each model grid cell. The standard deviation around the mean CCN varies globally between about ±30% over some marine regions to ±40–100% over most land areas and high latitudes, implying that aerosol processes and emissions are likely to be a significant source of uncertainty in model simulations of aerosol–cloud effects on climate. Among the most important contributors to CCN uncertainty are the sizes of emitted primary particles, including carbonaceous combustion particles from wildfires, biomass burning and fossil fuel use, as well as sulfate particles formed on sub-grid scales. Emissions of carbonaceous combustion particles affect CCN uncertainty more than sulfur emissions. Aerosol emission-related parameters dominate the uncertainty close to sources, while uncertainty in aerosol microphysical processes becomes increasingly important in remote regions, being dominated by deposition and aerosol sulfate formation during cloud-processing. The results lead to several recommendations for research that would result in improved modelling of cloud–active aerosol on a global scale.

Profile measurements of blowing snow at Halley, Antarctica

Measurements of blowing snow particle concentration from the second Stable Antarctic Boundary Layer Experiment (STABLE 2) are presented. The measurements, made at Halley Station (75.6 degreesS, 26.7 degreesW) throughout the 1991 austral winter, are supplemented with profile measurements of wind speed, air temperature, and humidity. Threshold wind speeds for blowing snow are shown to be distinctly different for various episodes, often depending strongly on the the availability of loose snow. Blowing snow is measured to occur at Halley between 27 and 37% of the time during winter. Total winter (June, July, August) blowing snow sublimation at Halley is calculated to be around 4.7 mm water equivalent, 3.7% of total accumulation over the same period. Total winter blowing snow mass transport is calculated to be around 5.5 x 10(5) kg per metre width. Measured humidity profiles at Halley show that during winter blowing snow conditions, a layer of near-saturated air forms, causing total sublimation to be less than that for seasonal or limited fetch snow covers. The extent of sublimation is shown to be strongly dependent on wind speed, temperature and fetch.

An intercomparison among four models of blowing snow

Four one-dimensional, time-dependent blowing snow models areintercompared. These include three spectral models, PIEKTUK-T,WINDBLAST, SNOWSTORM, and the bulk version of PIEKTUK-T,PIEKTUK-B. Although the four models are based on common physicalconcepts, they have been developed by different research groups. Thestructure of the models, numerical methods, meteorological field treatmentand the parameterization schemes may be different. Under an agreed standardcondition, the four models generally give similar results for the thermodynamic effects of blowing snow sublimation on the atmospheric boundary layer, including an increase of relative humidity and a decrease of the ambient temperature due to blowing snow sublimation. Relative humidity predicted by SNOWSTORM is lower than the predictions of the other models, which leads to a larger sublimation rate in SNOWSTORM. All four models demonstrate that sublimation rates in a column of blowing snow have a single maximum in time, illustrating self-limitation of the sublimation process of blowing snow. However, estimation of the eddy diffusioncoefficient for momentum (Km), and thereby the diffusion coefficients for moisture (Kw) and for heat (Kh), has a significant influence on the process. Sensitivitytests with PIEKTUK-T show that the sublimation rate can be approximately constant with time after an initial phase, if Km is a linear function with height. In order to match the model results with blowing snow observations, some parameters in the standard run, such as settling velocity of blowing snow particles in these models, may need to be changed to more practical values.

Excess mortality in Europe following a future Laki-style Icelandic eruption

Historical records show that the A.D. 1783–1784 Laki eruption in Iceland caused severe environmental stress and posed a health hazard far beyond the borders of Iceland. Given the reasonable likelihood of such an event recurring, it is important to assess the scale on which a future eruption could impact society. We quantify the potential health effects caused by an increase in air pollution during a future Laki-style eruption using a global aerosol model together with concentration-response functions derived from current epidemiological studies. The concentration of particulate matter with diameters smaller than 2.5 µm is predicted to double across central, western, and northern Europe during the first 3 mo of the eruption. Over land areas of Europe, the current World Health Organization 24-h air quality guideline for particulate matter with diameters smaller than 2.5 µm is exceeded an additional 36 d on average over the course of the eruption. Based on the changes in particulate air pollution, we estimate that approximately 142,000 additional cardiopulmonary fatalities (with a 95% confidence interval of 52,000–228,000) could occur in Europe. In terms of air pollution, such a volcanic eruption would therefore be a severe health hazard, increasing excess mortality in Europe on a scale that likely exceeds excess mortality due to seasonal influenza.

Global atmospheric particle formation from CERN CLOUD measurements

Observations made in the CLOUD chamber at CERN illuminate atmospheric particle formation. How new particles form New particle formation in the atmosphere produces around half of the cloud condensation nuclei that seed cloud droplets. Such particles have a pivotal role in determining the properties of clouds and the global radiation balance. Dunne et al. used the CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets) chamber at CERN to construct a model of aerosol formation based on laboratory-measured nucleation rates. They found that nearly all nucleation involves either ammonia or biogenic organic compounds. Furthermore, in the present-day atmosphere, cosmic ray intensity cannot meaningfully affect climate via nucleation. Science, this issue p. 1119 Fundamental questions remain about the origin of newly formed atmospheric aerosol particles because data from laboratory measurements have been insufficient to build global models. In contrast, gas-phase chemistry models have been based on laboratory kinetics measurements for decades. We built a global model of aerosol formation by using extensive laboratory measurements of rates of nucleation involving sulfuric acid, ammonia, ions, and organic compounds conducted in the CERN CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets) chamber. The simulations and a comparison with atmospheric observations show that nearly all nucleation throughout the present-day atmosphere involves ammonia or biogenic organic compounds, in addition to sulfuric acid. A considerable fraction of nucleation involves ions, but the relatively weak dependence on ion concentrations indicates that for the processes studied, variations in cosmic ray intensity do not appreciably affect climate through nucleation in the present-day atmosphere.

Regional and global trends in sulfate aerosol since the 1980s

[1] In the last two decades anthropogenic SO2 emissions have decreased across Europe and North America but have increased across Asia. Long-term surface observations suggest that atmospheric sulfate concentrations have followed trends in sulfur emissions more closely across Asia, than across the USA and Europe. We use a global model of chemistry and aerosol to understand changes in the regional sulfur budget between 1985 and 2000. For every 1% decrease in SO2 emissions over Europe and the USA the modelled sulfate column burden decreased by 0.65%, while over Asia a 1% increase in SO2 resulted in a 0.88% increase in sulfate. The different responses can be explained by the availability of oxidant in cloud. We find that because emissions have moved southward to latitudes where in-cloud oxidation is less oxidant limited, the 12% reduction in global SO2 emissions between 1985 and 2000 caused only a 3% decrease in global sulfate. Citation: Manktelow, P. T., G. W. Mann, K. S. Carslaw, D. V. Spracklen, and M. P. Chipperfield (2007), Regional and global trends in sulfate aerosol since the 1980s, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14803, doi:10.1029/2006GL028668.

Wind-borne redistribution of snow across an Antarctic ice rise

Redistribution of snow by the wind can drive spatial and temporal variations in snow accumulation that may affect the reconstruction of paleoclimate records from ice cores. In this paper we investigate how spatial variations in snow accumulation along a 13 km transect across Lyddan Ice Rise, Antarctica, are related to wind-borne snow redistribution. Lyddan Ice Rise is an approximately two-dimensional ridge which rises about 130 m above the surrounding ice shelves. Local slopes on its flanks never exceed 0.04. Despite this very smooth profile, there is a pronounced gradient in snow accumulation across the feature. Accumulation is highest on the ice shelf to the east ( climatologically upwind) of the ice rise and decreases moving westward, with the lowest accumulation seen to the west ( climatologically downwind) of the ice rise crest. Superimposed on this broad-scale gradient are large ( 20-30%), localized variations in accumulation on a scale of around 1 km that appear to be associated with local variations in surface slope of less than 0.01. The broad-scale accumulation gradient is consistent with estimates of wind-borne redistribution of snow made using wind speed observations from three automatic weather stations. The small-scale variability in accumulation is reproduced quite well using a snow transport model driven by surface winds obtained from an airflow model, providing that both the wind shear and static stability of the upwind flow are taken into account. We conclude that great care needs to be exercised in selecting ice core sites in order to avoid the possibility of blowing snow transport confounding climate reconstructions.

The seasonal cycle of sublimation at Halley, Antarctica

We have used micrometeorological data collected at Halley Research Station, Antarctica, to estimate monthly totals of snow sublimation. Direct sublimation from the snow surface is calculated using bulk-transfer formulae, while the sublimation of blowing snow is estimated using a model for suspended-particle number density and individual particle sublimation rates. During the winter months, sublimation losses are negligible, but between November and March sublimation removes around 25% of the snowfall. Surface sublimation and sublimation of blowing snow make roughly equal contributions to this total. Estimates of sublimation using micrometeorological data agree well with estimates made from daily snow-stake measurements.

Strong Constraints on Aerosol-Cloud Interactions from Volcanic Eruptions

Aerosols have a potentially large effect on climate, particularly through their interactions with clouds, but the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain. Large volcanic eruptions produce sulfur dioxide, which in turn produces aerosols; these eruptions thus represent a natural experiment through which to quantify aerosol–cloud interactions. Here we show that the massive 2014–2015 fissure eruption in Holuhraun, Iceland, reduced the size of liquid cloud droplets—consistent with expectations—but had no discernible effect on other cloud properties. The reduction in droplet size led to cloud brightening and global-mean radiative forcing of around −0.2 watts per square metre for September to October 2014. Changes in cloud amount or cloud liquid water path, however, were undetectable, indicating that these indirect effects, and cloud systems in general, are well buffered against aerosol changes. This result will reduce uncertainties in future climate projections, because we are now able to reject results from climate models with an excessive liquid-water-path response.&NA; Aerosols have a potentially large effect on climate, particularly through their interactions with clouds, but the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain. Large volcanic eruptions produce sulfur dioxide, which in turn produces aerosols; these eruptions thus represent a natural experiment through which to quantify aerosol‐cloud interactions. Here we show that the massive 2014‐2015 fissure eruption in Holuhraun, Iceland, reduced the size of liquid cloud droplets—consistent with expectations—but had no discernible effect on other cloud properties. The reduction in droplet size led to cloud brightening and global‐mean radiative forcing of around −0.2 watts per square metre for September to October 2014. Changes in cloud amount or cloud liquid water path, however, were undetectable, indicating that these indirect effects, and cloud systems in general, are well buffered against aerosol changes. This result will reduce uncertainties in future climate projections, because we are now able to reject results from climate models with an excessive liquid‐water‐path response. Investigations of an Icelandic volcanic eruption confirm that sulfate aerosols caused a discernible yet transient brightening effect, as predicted, but their effect on the liquid water path was unexpectedly negligible.