Monika Esch

Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the strongest natural interannual climate fluctuation. ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific Ocean and has large effects on the ecology of the region, but it also influences the entire global climate system and affects the societies and economies of manycountries. ENSO can be understood as an irregular low-frequency oscillation between a warm (El Niño) and a cold (La Niña) state. The strong El Niños of 1982/1983 and 1997/1998, along with the more frequent occurrences of El Niños during the past few decades, raise the question of whether human-induced ‘greenhouse’ warming affects, or will affect, ENSO. Several global climate models have been applied to transient greenhouse-gas-induced warming simulations to address this question, but the results have been debated owing to the inability of the models to fully simulate ENSO (because of their coarse equatorial resolution). Here we present results from a global climate model with sufficient resolution in the tropics to adequately represent the narrow equatorial upwelling and low-frequency waves. When the model is forced by a realistic future scenario of increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations, more frequent El-Niño-like conditions and stronger cold events in the tropical Pacific Ocean result.

Sensitivity of Simulated Climate to Horizontal and Vertical Resolution in the ECHAM5 Atmosphere Model

Abstract The most recent version of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology atmospheric general circulation model, ECHAM5, is used to study the impact of changes in horizontal and vertical resolution on seasonal mean climate. In a series of Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style experiments with resolutions ranging between T21L19 and T159L31, the systematic errors and convergence properties are assessed for two vertical resolutions. At low vertical resolution (L19) there is no evidence for convergence to a more realistic climate state for horizontal resolutions higher than T42. At higher vertical resolution (L31), on the other hand, the root-mean-square errors decrease monotonically with increasing horizontal resolution. Furthermore, except for T42, the L31 versions are superior to their L19 counterparts, and the improvements become more evident at increasingly higher horizontal resolutions. This applies, in particular, to the zonal mean climate state and to the stationary wave patterns i...

How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TC) under different climate conditions in the Northern Hemisphere have been investigated with the Max Planck Institute (MPI) coupled (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) and atmosphere (ECHAM5) climate models. The intensity and size of the TC depend crucially on resolution with higher wind speed and smaller scales at the higher resolutions. The typical size of the TC is reduced by a factor of 2.3 from T63 to T319 using the distance of the maximum wind speed from the centre of the storm as a measure. The full three-dimensional structure of the storms becomes increasingly more realistic as the resolution is increased. For the T63 resolution, three ensemble runs are explored for the period 1860 until 2100 using the IPCC SRES scenario A1B and evaluated for three 30 yr periods at the end of the 19th, 20th and 21st century, respectively. While there is no significant change between the 19th and the 20th century, there is a considerable reduction in the number of the TC by some 20% in the 21st century, but no change in the number of the more intense storms. Reduction in the number of storms occurs in all regions. A single additional experiment at T213 resolution was run for the two latter 30-yr periods. The T213 is an atmospheric only experiment using the transient sea surface temperatures (SST) of the T63 resolution experiment. Also in this case, there is a reduction by some 10% in the number of simulated TC in the 21st century compared to the 20th century but a marked increase in the number of intense storms. The number of storms with maximum wind speeds greater than 50 m s−1 increases by a third. Most of the intensification takes place in the Eastern Pacific and in the Atlantic where also the number of storms more or less stays the same. We identify two competing processes effecting TC in a warmer climate. First, the increase in the static stability and the reduced vertical circulation is suggested to contribute to the reduction in the number of storms. Second, the increase in temperature and water vapour provide more energy for the storms so that when favourable conditions occur, the higher SST and higher specific humidity will contribute to more intense storms. As the maximum intensity depends crucially on resolution, this will require higher resolution to have its full effect. The distribution of storms between different regions does not, at first approximation, depend on the temperature itself but on the distribution of the SST anomalies and their influence on the atmospheric circulation. Two additional transient experiments at T319 resolution where run for 20 yr at the end of the 20th and 21st century, respectively, using the same conditions as in the T213 experiments. The results are consistent with the T213 study. The total number of TC were similar to the T213 experiment but were generally more intense. The change from the 20th to the 21st century was also similar with fewer TC in total but with more intense cyclones.

The Influence of Sea Surface Temperatures on the Northern Winter Stratosphere: Ensemble Simulations with the MAECHAM5 Model

Abstract The role of interannual variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the Northern Hemisphere winter polar stratospheric circulation is addressed by means of an ensemble of nine simulations performed with the middle atmosphere configuration of the ECHAM5 model forced with observed SSTs during the 20-yr period from 1980 to 1999. Results are compared to the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Three aspects have been considered: the influence of the interannual SST variations on the climatological mean state, the response to El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, and the influence on systematic temperature changes. The strongest influence of SST variations has been found for the warm ENSO events considered. Namely, it has been found that the large-scale pattern associated with the extratropical tropospheric response to the ENSO phenomenon during northern winter enhances the forcing and the vertical propagation into the stratosphere of the quasi-stationary planetary waves emerging from the trop...

Reconstructing, Monitoring, and Predicting Multidecadal-Scale Changes in the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation with Sea Surface Temperature

Sea surface temperature (SST) observations in the North Atlantic indicate the existence of strong multidecadal variability with a unique spatial structure. It is shown by means of a new global climate model, which does not employ flux adjustments, that the multidecadal SST variability is closely related to variations in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The close correspondence between the North Atlantic SST and THC variabilities allows, in conjunction with the dynamical inertia of the THC, for the prediction of the slowly varying component of the North Atlantic climate system. It is shown additionally that past variations of the North Atlantic THC can be reconstructed from a simple North Atlantic SST index and that future, anthropogenically forced changes in the THC can be easily monitored by observing SSTs. The latter is confirmed by another state-ofthe-art global climate model. Finally, the strong multidecadal variability may mask an anthropogenic signal in the North Atlantic for some decades.

Climatology and Forcing of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the MAECHAM5 Model

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the equatorial zonal wind is an outstanding phenomenon of the atmosphere. The QBO is driven by a broad spectrum of waves excited in the tropical troposphere and modulates transport and mixing of chemical compounds in the whole middle atmosphere. Therefore, the simulation of the QBO in general circulation models and chemistry climate models is an important issue. Here, aspects of the climatology and forcing of a spontaneously occurring QBO in a middle-atmosphere model are evaluated, and its influence on the climate and variability of the tropical middle atmosphere is investigated. Westerly and easterly phases are considered separately, and 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data are used as a reference where appropriate. It is found that the simulated QBO is realistic in many details. Resolved large-scale waves are particularly important for the westerly phase, while parameterized gravity wave drag is more important for the easterly phase. Advective zonal wind tendencies are important for asymmetries between westerly and easterly phases, as found for the suppression of the easterly phase downward propagation. The simulation of the QBO improves the tropical upwelling and the atmospheric tape recorder compared to a model without a QBO. The semiannual oscillation is simulated realistically only if the QBO is represented. In sensitivity tests, it is found that the simulated QBO is strongly sensitive to changes in the gravity wave sources. The sensitivity to the tested range of horizontal resolutions is small. The stratospheric vertical resolution must be better than 1 km to simulate a realistic QBO.

Will Greenland Melting Halt the Thermohaline Circulation

[1] Climate projections for the 21st century indicate a gradual decrease of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The weakening could be accelerated substantially by meltwater input from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). Here we repeat recent experiments conducted for the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, providing an idealized additional source of freshwater along Greenland’s coast. For conservative and high melting estimates, the AMOC reduction is 35% and 42%, respectively, compared to a weakening of 30% for the original A1B scenario. Even for the high meltwater estimate the AMOC recovers in the 22nd century. The impact of the additional fresh water is limited to further enhancing the static stability in the Irminger and Labrador Seas, whereas the backbone of the overturning is maintained by the overflows across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge. Our results suggest that abrupt climate change initiated by GIS melting is not a realistic scenario for the 21st century. Citation: Jungclaus, J. H., H. Haak, M. Esch, E. Roeckner, and J. Marotzke (2006), Will Greenland melting halt the thermohaline circulation?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17708, doi:10.1029/2006GL026815.

Tropical cyclones in a T159 resolution global climate model: comparison with observations and re-analyses

Abstract Tropical cyclones have been investigated in a T159 version of the MPI ECHAM5 climate model using a novel technique to diagnose the evolution of the three-dimensional vorticity structure of tropical cyclones, including their full life cycle from weak initial vortices to their possible extra-tropical transition. Results have been compared with re-analyses [the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr Re-analysis (ERA40) and Japanese 25 yr re-analysis (JRA25)] and observed tropical storms during the period 1978–1999 for the Northern Hemisphere. There is no indication of any trend in the number or intensity of tropical storms during this period in ECHAM5 or in re-analyses but there are distinct inter-annual variations. The storms simulated by ECHAM5 are realistic both in space and time, but the model and even more so the re-analyses, underestimate the intensities of the most intense storms (in terms of their maximum wind speeds). There is an indication of a response to El Ni˜no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with a smaller number of Atlantic storms during El Ni˜no in agreement with previous studies. The global divergence circulation responds to El Ni˜no by setting up a large-scale convergence flow, with the centre over the central Pacific with enhanced subsidence over the tropical Atlantic. At the same time there is an increase in the vertical wind shear in the region of the tropical Atlantic where tropical storms normally develop. There is a good correspondence between the model and ERA40 except that the divergence circulation is somewhat stronger in the model. The model underestimates storms in the Atlantic but tends to overestimate them in theWestern Pacific and in the North Indian Ocean. It is suggested that the overestimation of storms in the Pacific by the model is related to an overly strong response to the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The overestimation in the North Indian Ocean is likely to be due to an over prediction in the intensity of monsoon depressions, which are then classified as intense tropical storms. Nevertheless, overall results are encouraging and will further contribute to increased confidence in simulating intense tropical storms with high-resolution climate models.

Uncertainties in Carbon Dioxide Radiative Forcing in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

Global warming caused by an increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, is the direct result of greenhouse gas—induced radiative forcing. When a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide is considered, this forcing differed substantially among 15 atmospheric general circulation models. Although there are several potential causes, the largest contributor was the carbon dioxide radiation parameterizations of the models.

Biomes computed from simulated climatologies

The biome model of Prentice et al. (1992a) is used to predict global patterns of potential natural plant formations, or biomes, from climatologies simulated by ECHAM, a model used for climate simulations at the Max-Planck-Institut fur Meteorologie. This study is undertaken in order to show the advantage of this biome model in diagnosing the performance of a climate model and assessing effects of past and future climate changes predicted by a climate model. Good overall agreement is found between global patterns of biomes computed from observed and simulated data of present climate. But there are also major discrepancies indicated by a difference in biomes in Australia, in the Kalahari Desert, and in the Middle West of North America. These discrepancies can be traced back to failures in simulated rainfall as well as summer or winter temperatures. Global patterns of biomes computed from an ice age simulation reveal that North America, Europe, and Siberia should have been covered largely by tundra and taiga, whereas only small differences are seen for the tropical rain forests. A potential northeast shift of biomes is expected from a simulation with enhanced C02 concentration according to the IPCC Scenario A. Little change is seen in the tropical rain forest and the Sahara. Since the biome model used is not capable of predicting changes in vegetation patterns due to a rapid climate change, the latter simulation has to be taken as a prediction of changes in conditions favourable for the existence of certain biomes, not as a prediction of a future distribution of biomes.[/ab]