Thorsten Mauritsen

Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming

Near-surface warming in the Arctic has been almost twice as large as the global average over recent decades—a phenomenon that is known as the ‘Arctic amplification’. The underlying causes of this temperature amplification remain uncertain. The reduction in snow and ice cover that has occurred over recent decades may have played a role. Climate model experiments indicate that when global temperature rises, Arctic snow and ice cover retreats, causing excessive polar warming. Reduction of the snow and ice cover causes albedo changes, and increased refreezing of sea ice during the cold season and decreases in sea-ice thickness both increase heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere. Changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation, as well as cloud cover, have also been proposed to cause Arctic temperature amplification. Here we examine the vertical structure of temperature change in the Arctic during the late twentieth century using reanalysis data. We find evidence for temperature amplification well above the surface. Snow and ice feedbacks cannot be the main cause of the warming aloft during the greater part of the year, because these feedbacks are expected to primarily affect temperatures in the lowermost part of the atmosphere, resulting in a pattern of warming that we only observe in spring. A significant proportion of the observed temperature amplification must therefore be explained by mechanisms that induce warming above the lowermost part of the atmosphere. We regress the Arctic temperature field on the atmospheric energy transport into the Arctic and find that, in the summer half-year, a significant proportion of the vertical structure of warming can be explained by changes in this variable. We conclude that changes in atmospheric heat transport may be an important cause of the recent Arctic temperature amplification.

Turbulence energetics in stably stratified geophysical flows: Strong and weak mixing regimes

Traditionally, turbulence energetics is characterised by turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and modelled using solely the TKE budget equation. In stable stratification, TKE is generated by the velocity shear and expended through viscous dissipation and work against buoyancy forces. The effect of stratification is characterised by the ratio of the buoyancy gradient to squared shear, called the Richardson number, Ri. It is widely believed that at Ri exceeding a critical value, Ric, local shear cannot maintain turbulence, and the flow becomes laminar. We revise this concept by extending the energy analysis to turbulent potential and total energies (TPE, and TTE = TKE + TPE), consider their budget equations, and conclude that TTE is a conservative parameter maintained by shear in any stratification. Hence there is no ‘energetics Ric’, in contrast to the hydrodynamic-instability threshold, Ric−instability, whose typical values vary from 0.25 to 1. We demonstrate that this interval, 0.25 < Ri < 1, separates two different turbulent regimes: strong mixing and weak mixing rather than the turbulent and the laminar regimes, as the classical concept states. This explains persistent occurrence of turbulence in the free atmosphere and deep ocean at Ri ≫ 1, clarifies the principal difference between turbulent boundary layers and free flows, and provides the basis for improving operational turbulence closure models. Copyright

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation

Ocean circulation changes not needed What causes the pattern of sea surface temperature change that is seen in the North Atlantic Ocean? This naturally occurring quasi-cyclical variation, known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), affects weather and climate. Some have suggested that the AMO is a consequence of variable large-scale ocean circulation. Clement et al. suggest otherwise. They find that the pattern of AMO variability can be produced in a model that does not include ocean circulation changes, but only the effects of changes in air temperatures and winds. Science, this issue p. 320 The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation does not depend on variable whole-ocean circulation. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a major mode of climate variability with important societal impacts. Most previous explanations identify the driver of the AMO as the ocean circulation, specifically the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here we show that the main features of the observed AMO are reproduced in models where the ocean heat transport is prescribed and thus cannot be the driver. Allowing the ocean circulation to interact with the atmosphere does not significantly alter the characteristics of the AMO in the current generation of climate models. These results suggest that the AMO is the response to stochastic forcing from the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation, with thermal coupling playing a role in the tropics. In this view, the AMOC and other ocean circulation changes would be largely a response to, not a cause of, the AMO.

Evaluation of Limited-Area Models for the Representation of the Diurnal Cycle and Contrasting Nights in CASES-99

This study evaluates the ability of three limited-area models [the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5), the Coupled Ocean– Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS), and the High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM)] to predict the diurnal cycle of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) during the Cooperative Atmosphere–Surface Exchange Study (CASES-99) experimental campaign. Special attention is paid to the stable ABL. Limited-area model results for different ABL parameterizations and different radiation transfer parameterizations are compared with the in situ observations. Model forecasts were found to be sensitive to the choice of the ABL parameterization both during the day and at night. At night, forecasts are particularly sensitive to the radiation scheme. All three models underestimate the amplitude of the diurnal temperature cycle (DTR) and the near-surface wind speed. Furthermore, they overestimate the stable boundary layer height for windy conditions and underestimate the stratification of nighttime surface inversions. Favorable parameterizations for the stable boundary layer enable rapid surface cooling, and they have limited turbulent mixing. It was also found that a relatively large model domain is required to model the Great Plains low-level jet. A new scheme is implemented for the stable boundary layer in the MediumRange Forecast Model (MRF). This scheme introduces a vegetation layer, a new formulation for the soil heat flux, and turbulent mixing based on the local scaling hypothesis. The new scheme improves the representation of surface temperature (especially for weak winds) and the stable boundary layer structure.

Observations of Stably Stratified Shear-Driven Atmospheric Turbulence at Low and High Richardson Numbers

Abstract Stably stratified shear-driven turbulence is analyzed using the gradient Richardson number, Ri, as the stability parameter. The method overcomes the statistical problems associated with the widely used Monin–Obukhov stability parameter. The results of the Ri-based scaling confirm the presence of three regimes: the weakly and the very stable regimes and the transition in between them. In the weakly stable regime, fluxes scale in proportion with variance, while in the very stable regime, stress and scalar fluxes behave differently. At large Ri, the velocity field becomes highly anisotropic and the turbulent potential energy becomes approximately equal to half of the turbulent kinetic energy. It appears that even in the strongly stable regime, beyond what is known as the critical gradient Richardson number, turbulent motions are present.

A Total Turbulent Energy Closure Model for Neutrally and Stably Stratified Atmospheric Boundary Layers

This paper presents a turbulence closure for neutral and stratified atmospheric conditions. The closure is based on the concept of the total turbulent energy. The total turbulent energy is the sum of the turbulent kinetic energy and turbulent potential energy, which is proportional to the potential temperature variance. The closure uses recent observational findings to take into account the mean flow stability. These observations indicate that turbulent transfer of heat and momentum behaves differently under very stable stratification. Whereas the turbulent heat flux tends toward zero beyond a certain stability limit, the turbulent stress stays finite. The suggested scheme avoids the problem of self-correlation. The latter is an improvement over the widely used Monin–Obukhov-based closures. Numerous large-eddy simulations, including a wide range of neutral and stably stratified cases, are used to estimate likely values of two free constants. In a benchmark case the new turbulence closure performs indistinguishably from independent large-eddy simulations.

The Art and Science of Climate Model Tuning

AbstractThe process of parameter estimation targeting a chosen set of observations is an essential aspect of numerical modeling. This process is usually named tuning in the climate modeling community. In climate models, the variety and complexity of physical processes involved, and their interplay through a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, must be summarized in a series of approximate submodels. Most submodels depend on uncertain parameters. Tuning consists of adjusting the values of these parameters to bring the solution as a whole into line with aspects of the observed climate. Tuning is an essential aspect of climate modeling with its own scientific issues, which is probably not advertised enough outside the community of model developers. Optimization of climate models raises important questions about whether tuning methods a priori constrain the model results in unintended ways that would affect our confidence in climate projections. Here, we present the definition and rationale behind model...

Mixed-phase clouds cause climate model biases in Arctic wintertime temperature inversions

Temperature inversions are a common feature of the Arctic wintertime boundary layer. They have important impacts on both radiative and turbulent heat fluxes and partly determine local climate-change feedbacks. Understanding the spread in inversion strength modelled by current global climate models is therefore an important step in better understanding Arctic climate and its present and future changes. Here, we show how the formation of Arctic air masses leads to the emergence of a cloudy and a clear state of the Arctic winter boundary layer. In the cloudy state, cloud liquid water is present, little to no surface radiative cooling occurs and inversions are elevated and relatively weak, whereas surface radiative cooling leads to strong surface-based temperature inversions in the clear state. Comparing model output to observations, we find that most climate models lack a realistic representation of the cloudy state. An idealised single-column model experiment of the formation of Arctic air reveals that this bias is linked to inadequate mixed-phase cloud microphysics, whereas turbulent and conductive heat fluxes control the strength of inversions within the clear state.

Performance of an Eddy Diffusivity-Mass Flux Scheme for Shallow Cumulus Boundary Layers

Comparisons between single-column (SCM) simulations with the total energy‐mass flux boundary layer scheme (TEMF) and large-eddy simulations (LES) are shown for four cases from the Gulf of Mexico Atmospheric Composition and Climate Study (GoMACCS) 2006 field experiment in the vicinity of Houston, Texas. The SCM simulations were run with initial soundings and surface forcing identical to those in the LES, providing a clean comparison with the boundary layer scheme isolated from any other influences. Good agreement is found in the simulated vertical transport and resulting moisture profiles. Notable differences are seen in the cloud base and in the distribution of moisture between the lower and upper cloud layer. By the end of the simulations, TEMF has dried the subcloud layer and moistened the lower cloud layer more than LES. TEMF gives more realistic profiles for shallow cumulus conditions than traditional boundary layer schemes, which have no transport above the dry convective boundary layer. Changes to the formulation and its parameters from previous publications are discussed.

Understanding the Intermodel Spread in Global-Mean Hydrological Sensitivity*

AbstractThis paper assesses intermodel spread in the slope of global-mean precipitation change ΔP with respect to surface temperature change. The ambiguous estimates in the literature for this slope are reconciled by analyzing four experiments from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) and considering different definitions of the slope. The smallest intermodel spread (a factor of 1.5 between the highest and lowest estimate) is found when using a definition that disentangles temperature-independent precipitation changes (the adjustments) from the slope of the temperature-dependent precipitation response; here this slope is referred to as the hydrological sensitivity parameter η. The estimates herein show that η is more robust than stated in most previous work. The authors demonstrate that adjustments and η estimated from a steplike quadrupling CO2 experiment serve well to predict ΔP in a transient CO2 experiment. The magnitude of η is smaller in the coupled ocean–atmosphere quadrupling CO2 experiment than in the noncoup...