Naomi M. Levine

Confronting model predictions of carbon fluxes with measurements of Amazon forests subjected to experimental drought

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the fate of Amazon rainforests in response to climate change. Here, carbon (C) flux predictions of five terrestrial biosphere models (Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5), Ecosystem Demography model version 2.1 (ED2), Integrated BIosphere Simulator version 2.6.4 (IBIS), Joint UK Land Environment Simulator version 2.1 (JULES) and Simple Biosphere model version 3 (SiB3)) and a hydrodynamic terrestrial ecosystem model (the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere (SPA) model) were evaluated against measurements from two large-scale Amazon drought experiments. Model predictions agreed with the observed C fluxes in the control plots of both experiments, but poorly replicated the responses to the drought treatments. Most notably, with the exception of ED2, the models predicted negligible reductions in aboveground biomass in response to the drought treatments, which was in contrast to an observed c. 20% reduction at both sites. For ED2, the timing of the decline in aboveground biomass was accurate, but the magnitude was too high for one site and too low for the other. Three key findings indicate critical areas for future research and model development. First, the models predicted declines in autotrophic respiration under prolonged drought in contrast to measured increases at one of the sites. Secondly, models lacking a phenological response to drought introduced bias in the sensitivity of canopy productivity and respiration to drought. Thirdly, the phenomenological water-stress functions used by the terrestrial biosphere models to represent the effects of soil moisture on stomatal conductance yielded unrealistic diurnal and seasonal responses to drought.

Deforestation and climate feedbacks threaten the ecological integrity of south -southeastern Amazonia

A mosaic of protected areas, including indigenous lands, sustainable-use production forests and reserves and strictly protected forests is the cornerstone of conservation in the Amazon, with almost 50 per cent of the region now protected. However, recent research indicates that isolation from direct deforestation or degradation may not be sufficient to maintain the ecological integrity of Amazon forests over the next several decades. Large-scale changes in fire and drought regimes occurring as a result of deforestation and greenhouse gas increases may result in forest degradation, regardless of protected status. How severe or widespread these feedbacks will be is uncertain, but the arc of deforestation in south–southeastern Amazonia appears to be particularly vulnerable owing to high current deforestation rates and ecological sensitivity to climate change. Maintaining forest ecosystem integrity may require significant strengthening of forest conservation on private property, which can in part be accomplished by leveraging existing policy mechanisms.

Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change

Significance Understanding how changes in climate will affect terrestrial ecosystems is particularly important in tropical forest regions, which store large amounts of carbon and exert important feedbacks onto regional and global climates. By combining multiple types of observations with a state-of-the-art terrestrial ecosystem model, we demonstrate that the sensitivity of tropical forests to changes in climate is dependent on the length of the dry season and soil type, but also, importantly, on the dynamics of individual-level competition within plant canopies. These interactions result in ecosystems that are more sensitive to changes in climate than has been predicted by traditional models but that transition from one ecosystem type to another in a continuous, non–tipping-point manner. Amazon forests, which store ∼50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem’s resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest’s response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions.

The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use

There is considerable interest in understanding the fate of the Amazon over the coming century in the face of climate change, rising atmospheric CO2 levels, ongoing land transformation, and changing fire regimes within the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under the combined impact of these four environmental forcings using three terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) forced by three bias-corrected IPCC AR4 climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under two land-use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO2 fertilization, land-use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change are primarily determined by the direction and severity of projected changes in regional precipitation: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%. However, the models predict that CO2 fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate-induced increases in plant water stress, and, as a result, sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land-use change and climate-driven changes in fire frequency are predicted to cause additional aboveground biomass loss and reductions in forest extent. The relative impact of land use and fire dynamics compared to climate and CO2 impacts varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land-use scenario, and on the terrestrial biosphere model used, highlighting the importance of improved quantitative understanding of all four factors - climate change, CO2 fertilization effects, fire, and land use - to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century.

The δ18O of dissolved O2 as a tracer of mixing and respiration in the mesopelagic ocean

The isotopic composition of dissolved oxygen in the mesopelagic ocean is a unique tracer of respiration and transport. New δ18O of O2 data from the tropical South Atlantic oxygen minimum zone are presented and compared to global δ18O data. The δ18O variability in oxygen poor waters is attributed to differences in physical and biogeochemical processes. Simple respiration-transport models show that both isopycnal diffusion and advection must be properly considered when interpreting oxygen isotope signatures along an isopycnal surface. We estimate rates of respiration and oxygen isotope fractionation for the study region using a two-dimensional (2-D) isopycnal and 1-D diapycnal model. Estimated respiration rates are consistent with previous studies. However, to account for observed δ18O values at low [O2], model solutions need to invoke either very low [O2] that have not been observed in the South Atlantic or an isotope effect that is lower than values measured in the laboratory or euphotic zone.

The Trichodesmium consortium: conserved heterotrophic co-occurrence and genomic signatures of potential interactions

The nitrogen (N)-fixing cyanobacterium Trichodesmium is globally distributed in warm, oligotrophic oceans, where it contributes a substantial proportion of new N and fuels primary production. These photoautotrophs form macroscopic colonies that serve as relatively nutrient-rich substrates that are colonized by many other organisms. The nature of these associations may modulate ocean N and carbon (C) cycling, and can offer insights into marine co-evolutionary mechanisms. Here we integrate multiple omics-based and experimental approaches to investigate Trichodesmium-associated bacterial consortia in both laboratory cultures and natural environmental samples. These efforts have identified the conserved presence of a species of Gammaproteobacteria (Alteromonas macleodii), and enabled the assembly of a near-complete, representative genome. Interorganismal comparative genomics between A. macleodii and Trichodesmium reveal potential interactions that may contribute to the maintenance of this association involving iron and phosphorus acquisition, vitamin B12 exchange, small C compound catabolism, and detoxification of reactive oxygen species. These results identify what may be a keystone organism within Trichodesmium consortia and support the idea that functional selection has a major role in structuring associated microbial communities. These interactions, along with likely many others, may facilitate Trichodesmium’s unique open-ocean lifestyle, and could have broad implications for oligotrophic ecosystems and elemental cycling.

Terrestrial and marine perspectives on modeling organic matter degradation pathways

Organic matter (OM) plays a major role in both terrestrial and oceanic biogeochemical cycles. The amount of carbon stored in these systems is far greater than that of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) in the atmosphere, and annual fluxes of CO2 from these pools to the atmosphere exceed those from fossil fuel combustion. Understanding the processes that determine the fate of detrital material is important for predicting the effects that climate change will have on feedbacks to the global carbon cycle. However, Earth System Models (ESMs) typically utilize very simple formulations of processes affecting the mineralization and storage of detrital OM. Recent changes in our view of the nature of this material and the factors controlling its transformation have yet to find their way into models. In this review, we highlight the current understanding of the role and cycling of detrital OM in terrestrial and marine systems and examine how this pool of material is represented in ESMs. We include a discussion of the different mineralization pathways available as organic matter moves from soils, through inland waters to coastal systems and ultimately into open ocean environments. We argue that there is strong commonality between aspects of OM transformation in both terrestrial and marine systems and that our respective scientific communities would benefit from closer collaboration.

Revising upper-ocean sulfur dynamics near Bermuda: new lessons from 3 years of concentration and rate measurements

Environmental context Microscopic marine organisms have the potential to influence the global climate through the production of a trace gas, dimethylsulfide, which contributes to cloud formation. Using 3 years of observations, we investigated the environmental drivers behind the production and degradation of dimethylsulfide and its precursor dimethylsulfoniopropionate. Our results highlight the important role of the microbial community in rapidly cycling these compounds and provide an important dataset for future modelling studies. Abstract Oceanic biogeochemical cycling of dimethylsulfide (DMS), and its precursor dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP), has gained considerable attention over the past three decades because of the potential role of DMS in climate mediation. Here we report 3 years of monthly vertical profiles of organic sulfur cycle concentrations (DMS, particulate DMSP (DMSPp) and dissolved DMSP (DMSPd)) and rates (DMSPd consumption, biological DMS consumption and DMS photolysis) from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site taken between 2005 and 2008. Concentrations confirm the summer paradox with mixed layer DMS peaking ~90 days after peak DMSPp and ~50 days after peak DMSPp:Chl. A small decline in mixed layer DMS was observed relative to those measured during a previous study at BATS (1992–1994), potentially driven by long-term climate shifts at the site. On average, DMS cycling occurred on longer timescales than DMSPd (0.43±0.35 v. 1.39±0.76 day–1) with DMSPd consumption rates remaining elevated throughout the year despite significant seasonal variability in the bacterial DMSP degrader community. DMSPp was estimated to account for 4–5% of mixed layer primary production and turned over at a significantly slower rate (~0.2 day–1). Photolysis drove DMS loss in the mixed layer during the summer, whereas biological consumption of DMS was the dominant loss process in the winter and at depth. These findings offer new insight into the underlying mechanisms driving DMS(P) cycling in the oligotrophic ocean, provide an extended dataset for future model evaluation and hypothesis testing and highlight the need for a reexamination of past modelling results and conclusions drawn from data collected with old methodologies.

Enhancement of phytoplankton chlorophyll by submesoscale frontal dynamics in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre

Subtropical gyres contribute significantly to global ocean productivity. As the climate warms, the strength of these gyres as a biological carbon pump is predicted to diminish due to increased stratification and depleted surface nutrients. We present results suggesting that the impact of submesoscale physics on phytoplankton in the oligotrophic ocean is substantial and may either compensate or exacerbate future changes in carbon cycling. A new statistical tool was developed to quantify surface patchiness from sea surface temperatures. Chlorophyll concentrations in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre were shown to be enhanced by submesoscale frontal dynamics with an average increase of 38% (maximum of 83%) during late winter. The magnitude of this enhancement is comparable to the observed decline in chlorophyll due to a warming of ~1.1°C. These results highlight the need for an improved understanding of fine-scale physical variability in order to predict the response of marine ecosystems to projected climate changes.

Putting the spotlight on organic sulfur

Diverse dissolved organic sulfur compounds play an active role in ocean biogeochemistry Marine microbes are the engines that drive global biogeochemical cycling in the oceans. They produce and cycle a dissolved organic matter (DOM) reservoir that is roughly as big as the atmospheric carbon dioxide pool (1). Interactions between DOM and marine microbes may also play a key role in the evolving climate through changes in remineralization rates (2). Historically, DOM has been thought of mainly in terms of its carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus content. On page 456 of this issue, Ksionzek et al. (3) investigate the large pool of dissolved organic sulfur (DOS) compounds in the ocean and show that these compounds also play a key role in ocean biogeochemistry.