Narasimha D. Rao

Towards demand-side solutions for mitigating climate change

Research on climate change mitigation tends to focus on supply-side technology solutions. A better understanding of demand-side solutions is missing. We propose a transdisciplinary approach to identify demand-side climate solutions, investigate their mitigation potential, detail policy measures and assess their implications for well-being.

Could Resource Rents Finance Universal Access to Infrastructure? A First Exploration of Needs and Rents

It is often argued that, ethically, resource rents should accrue to all citizens. Yet in reality the rents from exploiting national resources are often concentrated in the hands of a few. If resource rents were to be taxed, on the other hand, substantial amounts of public money could be raised and used to cover the population’s infrastructure needs, such as access to electricity, water, sanitation, communication technology and roads, which all play important roles in a nation’s economic development process. Here, we examine to what extent existing resource rents could be used to provide universal access to these infrastructures.

Climate and human development impacts on municipal water demand

Municipal water systems provide crucial services for human well-being, and will undergo a major transformation this century following global technological, socioeconomic and environmental changes. Future demand scenarios integrating these drivers over multi-decadal planning horizons are needed to develop effective adaptation strategies. This paper presents a new long-term scenario modeling framework that projects future daily municipal water demand at a 1/8° global spatial resolution. The methodology incorporates improved representations of important demand drivers such as urbanization and climate change. The framework is applied across multiple future socioeconomic and climate scenarios to explore municipal water demand uncertainties over the 21st century. The scenario analysis reveals that achieving a low-carbon development pathway can potentially reduce global municipal water demands in 2060 by 2-4%, although the timing and scale of impacts vary significantly with geographic location. Future global municipal water demand scenarios generated for coupled RCP-SSP pathways.Integration of climate and socioeconomic drivers to downscale long-term scenarios to 1/8°.Climate change impacts to annual global demand in 2060s ranges from 2 to 4%.Mapped climate change impacts to peak daily demand in 2060s range from 0 to 12%.

International and intranational equity in sharing climate change mitigation burdens

Is inequality within countries relevant for global climate policy? Most burden-sharing proposals for climate mitigation treat states as homogenous agents, even those that aim to protect individual rights. This can lead to free riders in some large emerging economies and expose the poor to mitigation burdens in others. Proposals that incorporate an exemption for the poor can avoid these outcomes, but do not account for the role of internal policies on the poor’s actual emissions and mitigation burdens. This will create moral hazards in the design of such agreements and risk the misallocation of mitigation costs when implemented. To ensure equitable outcomes at the individual level, international agreements would need to build in additional provisions to encourage benefiting states to reduce emissions and target exemptions to the poor. But such agreements will face political conflicts over sovereignty and the burdensomeness of such provisions.

Estimating Uncertainty in Household Energy Footprints

We develop a methodology to characterize and quantify uncertainty in relating consumption to production in household energy footprints. This uncertainty arises primarily from inconsistencies between national accounts and household surveys and, to a smaller extent, from using aggregated sectors. Researchers may introduce significant inaccuracies by ignoring these inconsistencies when reporting household footprints. We apply the methodology to India and Brazil, where we find the size of this uncertainty to be higher than 20% of footprints at most income levels. We expect that previous estimates for these countries may have been overestimated due to these inconsistencies. Other knowledge gaps, such as inaccuracies in multiregional input-output tables and household surveys, add further uncertainty beyond our estimates.

Bridging India’s housing gap: lowering costs and CO2 emissions

ABSTRACT More than 60 million homes in India are unfit for decent living. Replacing this stock with decent housing will entail significant costs and increase energy consumption and related CO2 emissions due to both upfront and long-term energy requirements. This paper assesses the life cycle costs (LCC), life cycle energy (LCE) and CO2 emissions impacts of filling the current housing gap with different building materials and technologies, and maintaining reasonable standards of indoor temperature and humidity. These outcomes are assessed under different climatic conditions and residential behavioural patterns, using urban and rural housing archetypes, and considering conventional as well as low-cost materials and energy-savings measures. The results demonstrate that stabilized-earth blocks are a preferred solution to the prevailing norm of fired bricks. Along with filler slab and roof insulation, they offer a win–win solution to reduce both LCC by 18% and LCE by 17% compared with conventional techniques in bridging the housing gap. LCE savings can be further increased to 28% without increasing the investment cost compared with conventional solutions. The insights provided by this study on abatement costs and efficacy can be used by policy-makers for affordable housing and climate-related policies.

Outlook for modern cooking energy access in Central America

The Central American nations of Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua are among the poorest in the Americas. While the fraction of population dependent on solid fuels has declined in these nations over the last 25 years, the number of people using them has risen. Here, we first assess current patterns of cooking energy use in these nations. We then apply a discrete model of household cooking choices and demand to simulate future pathways of clean cooking uptake and the outlook for achieving target 7.1 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), which aims to ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services by 2030. We find that by 2030, ensuing income growth is likely to enable 90% of urban populations in these nations to switch to using modern cooking energy services. However, without supporting policies, between 40% to 50% of rural Guatemalans and Hondurans, while over two-thirds of rural Nicaraguans, are likely to find clean fuels or stoves unaffordable in 2030. A targeted subsidy on modern fuels, like liquid petroleum gas (LPG), is the most effective policy mechanism we studied that could provide such support. A 50% subsidy policy on LPG targeted to the rural and urban poor population could, by 2030, make cooking with LPG affordable to an additional 7.3 million people in these countries. We estimate that such a policy would cost about

Applying LCA to Estimate Development Energy Needs: The Cases of India and Brazil

250 million per year and would have negligible greenhouse gas emissions impacts. Such a policy could also have significant health benefits, preventing about 8,890 premature deaths annually from reduced exposure to cooking-related household pollution in 2030.

Impact of Historical Changes in Coarse Cereals Consumption in India on Micronutrient Intake and Anemia Prevalence

This paper illustrates the use of life cycle assessment (LCA) methods to link human wellbeing to resource consumption. Based on a previously developed framework of the material requirements for human well-being, we use LCA and Input-Output (I/O) analysis, as appropriate, to estimate the life-cycle energy needed to meet the gap in living standards in two emerging economies, India and Brazil. We illustrate the relative contribution of different living standards components to energy requirements, as well as the uncertainty and trade-offs between upfront and long-term operating energy costs, and how these factors differ in the two countries. This analysis provides insights on how LCA analysis can be used to inform energy planning and its links to development goals.

Kerosene subsidies in India: When energy policy fails as social policy

Background: Production of rice and wheat increased dramatically in India over the past decades, with reduced proportion of coarse cereals in the food supply. Objective: We assess impacts of changes in cereal consumption in India on intake of iron and other micronutrients and whether increased consumption of coarse cereals could help alleviate anemia prevalence. Methods: With consumption data from over 800 000 households, we calculate intake of iron and other micronutrients from 84 food items from 1983 to 2011. We use mixed-effect models to relate state-level anemia prevalence in women and children to micronutrient consumption and household characteristics. Results: Coarse cereals reduced from 23% to 6% of calories from cereals in rural households (10% to 3% in urban households) between 1983 and 2011, with wide variations across states. Loss of iron from coarse cereals was only partially compensated by increased iron from other cereals and food groups, with a 21% (rural) and 11% (urban) net loss of total iron intake. Models indicate negative association between iron from cereals and anemia prevalence in women. The benefit from increased iron from coarse cereals is partially offset by the adverse effects from antinutrients. For children, anemia was negatively associated with heme–iron consumption but not with iron from cereals. Conclusions: Loss of coarse cereals in the Indian diet has substantially reduced iron intake without compensation from other food groups, particularly in states where rice rather than wheat replaced coarse cereals. Increased consumption of coarse cereals could reduce anemia prevalence in Indian women along with other interventions.