Nicholas K. Dulvy

Global analysis of thermal tolerance and latitude in ectotherms

A tenet of macroecology is that physiological processes of organisms are linked to large-scale geographical patterns in environmental conditions. Species at higher latitudes experience greater seasonal temperature variation and are consequently predicted to withstand greater temperature extremes. We tested for relationships between breadths of thermal tolerance in ectothermic animals and the latitude of specimen location using all available data, while accounting for habitat, hemisphere, methodological differences and taxonomic affinity. We found that thermal tolerance breadths generally increase with latitude, and do so at a greater rate in the Northern Hemisphere. In terrestrial ectotherms, upper thermal limits vary little while lower thermal limits decrease with latitude. By contrast, marine species display a coherent poleward decrease in both upper and lower thermal limits. Our findings provide comprehensive global support for hypotheses generated from studies at smaller taxonomic subsets and geographical scales. Our results further indicate differences between terrestrial and marine ectotherms in how thermal physiology varies with latitude that may relate to the degree of temperature variability experienced on land and in the ocean.

Flattening of Caribbean coral reefs: region-wide declines in architectural complexity.

Coral reefs are rich in biodiversity, in large part because their highly complex architecture provides shelter and resources for a wide range of organisms. Recent rapid declines in hard coral cover have occurred across the Caribbean region, but the concomitant consequences for reef architecture have not been quantified on a large scale to date. We provide, to our knowledge, the first region-wide analysis of changes in reef architectural complexity, using nearly 500 surveys across 200 reefs, between 1969 and 2008. The architectural complexity of Caribbean reefs has declined nonlinearly with the near disappearance of the most complex reefs over the last 40 years. The flattening of Caribbean reefs was apparent by the early 1980s, followed by a period of stasis between 1985 and 1998 and then a resumption of the decline in complexity to the present. Rates of loss are similar on shallow (<6 m), mid-water (6–20 m) and deep (>20 m) reefs and are consistent across all five subregions. The temporal pattern of declining architecture coincides with key events in recent Caribbean ecological history: the loss of structurally complex Acropora corals, the mass mortality of the grazing urchin Diadema antillarum and the 1998 El Nino Southern Oscillation-induced worldwide coral bleaching event. The consistently low estimates of current architectural complexity suggest regional-scale degradation and homogenization of reef structure. The widespread loss of architectural complexity is likely to have serious consequences for reef biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and associated environmental services.

The Gulf: A young sea in decline

This review examines the substantial changes that have taken place in marine habitats and resources of the Gulf over the past decade. The habitats are especially interesting because of the naturally high levels of temperature and salinity stress they experience, which is important in a changing world climate. However, the extent of all natural habitats is changing and their condition deteriorating because of the rapid development of the region and, in some cases from severe, episodic warming episodes. Major impacts come from numerous industrial, infrastructure-based, and residential and tourism development activities, which together combine, synergistically in some cases, to cause the observed deterioration in most benthic habitats. Substantial sea bottom dredging for material and its deposition in shallow water to extend land or to form a basis for huge developments, directly removes large areas of shallow, productive habitat, though in some cases the most important effect is the accompanying sedimentation or changes to water flows and conditions. The large scale of the activities compared to the relatively shallow and small size of the water body is a particularly important issue. Important from the perspective of controlling damaging effects is the limited cross-border collaboration and even intra-country collaboration among government agencies and large projects. Along with the accumulative nature of impacts that occur, even where each project receives environmental assessment or attention, each is treated more or less alone, rarely in combination. However, their combination in such a small, biologically interacting sea exacerbates the overall deterioration. Very few similar areas exist which face such a high concentration of disturbance, and the prognosis for the Gulf continuing to provide abundant natural resources is poor.

Thermal-safety margins and the necessity of thermoregulatory behavior across latitude and elevation

Significance We find that most terrestrial ectotherms are insufficiently tolerant of high temperatures to survive the warmest potential body temperatures in exposed habitats and must therefore thermoregulate by using shade, burrows, or evaporative cooling. Our results reveal that exposure to extreme heat can occur even at high elevations and latitudes and show why heat-tolerance limits are relatively invariant in comparison with cold limits. To survive climate warming, ectotherms in most areas may need to rely on behaviors—and have access to habitats—that provide a reprieve from extreme operative temperatures. Physiological thermal-tolerance limits of terrestrial ectotherms often exceed local air temperatures, implying a high degree of thermal safety (an excess of warm or cold thermal tolerance). However, air temperatures can be very different from the equilibrium body temperature of an individual ectotherm. Here, we compile thermal-tolerance limits of ectotherms across a wide range of latitudes and elevations and compare these thermal limits both to air and to operative body temperatures (theoretically equilibrated body temperatures) of small ectothermic animals during the warmest and coldest times of the year. We show that extreme operative body temperatures in exposed habitats match or exceed the physiological thermal limits of most ectotherms. Therefore, contrary to previous findings using air temperatures, most ectotherms do not have a physiological thermal-safety margin. They must therefore rely on behavior to avoid overheating during the warmest times, especially in the lowland tropics. Likewise, species living at temperate latitudes and in alpine habitats must retreat to avoid lethal cold exposure. Behavioral plasticity of habitat use and the energetic consequences of thermal retreats are therefore critical aspects of species’ vulnerability to climate warming and extreme events.

Current and Future Sustainability of Island Coral Reef Fisheries

Overexploitation is one of the principal threats to coral reef diversity, structure, function, and resilience [1, 2]. Although it is generally held that coral reef fisheries are unsustainable [3-5], little is known of the overall scale of exploitation or which reefs are overfished [6]. Here, on the basis of ecological footprints and a review of exploitation status [7, 8], we report widespread unsustainability of island coral reef fisheries. Over half (55%) of the 49 island countries considered are exploiting their coral reef fisheries in an unsustainable way. We estimate that total landings of coral reef fisheries are currently 64% higher than can be sustained. Consequently, the area of coral reef appropriated by fisheries exceeds the available effective area by approximately 75,000 km(2), or 3.7 times the area of Australias Great Barrier Reef, and an extra 196,000 km(2) of coral reef may be required by 2050 to support the anticipated growth in human populations. The large overall imbalance between current and sustainable catches implies that management methods to reduce social and economic dependence on reef fisheries are essential to prevent the collapse of coral reef ecosystems while sustaining the well-being of burgeoning coastal populations.

Biology of extinction risk in marine fishes

We review interactions between extrinsic threats to marine fishes and intrinsic aspects of their biology that determine how populations and species respond to those threats. Information is available on the status of less than 5% of the worlds approximately 15 500 marine fish species, most of which are of commercial importance. By 2001, based on data from 98 North Atlantic and northeast Pacific populations, marine fishes had declined by a median 65% in breeding biomass from known historic levels; 28 populations had declined by more than 80%. Most of these declines would be sufficient to warrant a status of threatened with extinction under international threat criteria. However, this interpretation is highly controversial, in part because of a perception that marine fishes have a suite of life history characteristics, including high fecundity and large geographical ranges, which might confer greater resilience than that shown by terrestrial vertebrates. We review 15 comparative analyses that have tested for these and other life history correlates of vulnerability in marine fishes. The empirical evidence suggests that large body size and late maturity are the best predictors of vulnerability to fishing, regardless of whether differences among taxa in fishing mortality are controlled; there is no evidence that high fecundity confers increased resilience. The evidence reviewed here is of direct relevance to the diverse criteria used at global and national levels by various bodies to assess threat status of fishes. Simple life history traits can be incorporated directly into quantitative assessment criteria, or used to modify the conclusions of quantitative assessments, or used as preliminary screening criteria for assessment of the ∼95% of marine fish species whose status has yet to be evaluated either by conservationists or fisheries scientists.

Global marine primary production constrains fisheries catches

Primary production must constrain the amount of fish and invertebrates available to expanding fisheries; however the degree of limitation has only been demonstrated at regional scales to date. Here we show that phytoplanktonic primary production, estimated from an ocean-colour satellite (SeaWiFS), is related to global fisheries catches at the scale of Large Marine Ecosystems, while accounting for temperature and ecological factors such as ecosystem size and type, species richness, animal body size, and the degree and nature of fisheries exploitation. Indeed we show that global fisheries catches since 1950 have been increasingly constrained by the amount of primary production. The primary production appropriated by current global fisheries is 17-112% higher than that appropriated by sustainable fisheries. Global primary production appears to be declining, in some part due to climate variability and change, with consequences for the near future fisheries catches.

Global-scale predictions of community and ecosystem properties from simple ecological theory.

We show how theoretical developments in macroecology, life-history theory and food-web ecology can be combined to formulate a simple model for predicting the potential biomass, production, size and trophic structure of consumer communities. The strength of our approach is that it uses remote sensing data to predict properties of consumer communities in environments that are challenging and expensive to sample directly. An application of the model to the marine environment on a global scale, using primary production and temperature estimates from satellite remote sensing as inputs, suggests that the global biomass of marine animals more than 10−5 g wet weight is 2.62×109 t (=8.16 g m−2 ocean) and production is 1.00×1010 t yr−1 (31.15 g m−2 yr−1). Based on the life-history theory, we propose and apply an approximation for distinguishing the relative contributions of different animal groups. Fish biomass and production, for example, are estimated as 8.99×108 t (2.80 g m−2) and 7.91×108 t yr−1 (2.46 g m−2 yr−1), respectively, and 50% of fish biomass is shown to occur in 17% of the total ocean area (8.22 g m−2). The analyses show that emerging ecological theory can be synthesized to set baselines for assessing human and climate impacts on global scales.

Ecosystem ecology: size-based constraints on the pyramids of life

Biomass distribution and energy flow in ecosystems are traditionally described with trophic pyramids, and increasingly with size spectra, particularly in aquatic ecosystems. Here, we show that these methods are equivalent and interchangeable representations of the same information. Although pyramids are visually intuitive, explicitly linking them to size spectra connects pyramids to metabolic and size-based theory, and illuminates size-based constraints on pyramid shape. We show that bottom-heavy pyramids should predominate in the real world, whereas top-heavy pyramids indicate overestimation of predator abundance or energy subsidies. Making the link to ecological pyramids establishes size spectra as a central concept in ecosystem ecology, and provides a powerful framework both for understanding baseline expectations of community structure and for evaluating future scenarios under climate change and exploitation.

Size-spectra as indicators of the effects of fishing on coral reef fish assemblages

The data requirements and resources needed to develop multispecies indicators of fishing impacts are often lacking and this is particularly true for coral reef fisheries. Size-spectra, relationships between abundance and body-size class, regardless of taxonomy, can be calculated from simple sizeabundance data. Both the slope and the mid-point height of the relationship can be compared at different fishing intensities. Here, we develop size-spectra for reef fish assemblages using body size- abundance data collected by underwater visual census in each of ten fishing grounds across a known gradient of fishing intensity in the Kadavu Island group, Fiji. Slopes of the size-spectra became steeper (F9,69=3.20, p<0.01) and the height declined (F9,69=15.78, p<0.001) with increasing fishing intensity. Regressions of numbers of individuals per size class across grounds were negative for all size classes, although the slope was almost zero for the smallest size class. Response to exploitation of each size class category was greatest for larger fish. Steepening of the slope with increasing fishing intensity largely resulted from reductions in the relative abundance of large fish and not from the ecological release of small fish following depletion of their predators. The slope and height of the size-spectrum appear to be good indicators of fishing effects on reef fish assemblages.