Nicholas Lutsey

Energy Efficiency, Fuel Economy, and Policy Implications

In the past 20 years, the acceleration performance of light-duty vehicles in the United States has improved substantially while vehicles have gotten larger and heavier. Over the same period, fuel economy, measured as miles per gallon, has not improved. These data suggest that technological innovation in vehicles is not lagging but is not being used to improve vehicle fuel economy. This paper quantifies vehicle efficiency improvements in U.S. light-duty vehicles since 1975 as they relate to fuel consumption. Energy efficiency improvements have been strongly positive and relatively constant since 1975. The rapid rise in fuel economy in the late 1970s was due to a mix of efficiency improvements and downgrading of utility in the form of reduced size, power, and elimination of accessories and amenities (such as air conditioning). In contrast, since the mid-1980s, fuel economy has remained constant while the benefits of technological innovation were used to satisfy private desires (more power, size, and amenities), instead of the public interest (reduced greenhouse gas emissions and oil imports). An important policy question is how and to what extent future efficiency innovations might be directed to the public interest.

Assessment of Technologies to Meet a Low Carbon Fuel Standard

Californias low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) was designed to incentivize a diverse array of available strategies for reducing transportation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It provides strong incentives for fuels with lower GHG emissions, while explicitly requiring a 10% reduction in Californias transportation fuel GHG intensity by 2020. This paper investigates the potential for cost-effective GHG reductions from electrification and expanded use of biofuels. The analysis indicates that fuel providers could meet the standard using a portfolio approach that employs both biofuels and electricity, which would reduce the risks and uncertainties associated with the progress of cellulosic and battery technologies, feedstock prices, land availability, and the sustainability of the various compliance approaches. Our analysis is based on the details of Californias development of an LCFS; however, this research approach could be generalizable to a national U.S. standard and to similar programs in Europe and Canada.

Markets for Fuel-Cell Auxiliary Power Units in Vehicles: Preliminary Assessment

Fuel cells are widely expected to replace internal combustion engines in vehicles. However, their high initial costs preclude their introduction into the mass market for some time. A new approach is needed that focuses on niche markets. The potential use of fuel cells in auxiliary power units (APUs) on board various types of automobiles and trucks— in luxury passenger automobiles, law enforcement vehicles, contractor trucks, specialized utility trucks, recreational vehicles, refrigerated trucks, and line-haul heavy-duty trucks—is explored. Power requirements, volume and weight targets, costs, market sizes, and potential benefits for several fuel cell technologies and fuels are analyzed. The attributes of market applications are matched with fuel cell attributes to assess the market potential of fuel-cell APUs. Although data are insufficient and more analysis is needed, several market applications apparently could play key roles in introducing fuel cell technologies to the transportation sector.

Cost-Effectiveness Assessment of Low-Carbon Vehicle and Fuel Technologies

Governments around the world are implementing programs to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector. The targeted GHG emission reductions will require major transformations in the areas of vehicles and fuel; however, little effort has been made to systematically compare the costs of efficiency and alternative fuel options under consistent assumptions. This study analyzes the cost-effectiveness—or cost per tonne (metric ton) of GHG emission reduction—of near-term technology options for vehicle efficiency, biofuel usage, battery electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cells for GHG reduction in the light-duty vehicle sector within the 2020 time frame. The costs and GHG impacts of emerging technologies are evaluated to develop a marginal GHG abatement cost curve for a technology deployment scenario that complies with the adopted vehicle regulation and low-carbon fuel standard in California. The findings indicate large variation in estimates for cost per tonne across technologies and high uncertainty because of the price of petroleum.

Toward Integration of Vehicle and Fuel Regulation: California Case Study

Governments around the world are attempting to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with distinct fuel and vehicle policies. As alternative powertrains and fuels are introduced, vehicle–fuel interactions become more intense and policy design and effectiveness become more problematic. These interactions are analyzed for fuel providers complying with Californias Low Carbon Fuel Standard program and automakers complying with the Pavley vehicle GHG emission standards. It is found that each program could significantly affect industry compliance in the other program once both programs are implemented. This analysis, in turn, indicates that continuing coevolving adjustments will be needed to ensure that rules directed at vehicle manufacturers and fuel providers result in the most cost-effective and efficient achievement of GHG and energy goals. Specific suggestions are offered for updating and upgrading the two regulatory programs. Although the findings are specific to California, they are also broadly generalizable since many countries (including the European Union and the United States) are moving toward similar regulatory regimes.

Long-Term Potential to Reduce Emissions from International Shipping by Adoption of Best Energy-Efficiency Practices

Maritime shipping is highly fuel-efficient, but its sheer volume and rapid growth make it a major source of carbon emissions. Industry and governments seek to reduce the energy use and carbon footprint of shipping. Yet the reasons for the variation in shipping efficiency observed in the world fleets embrace of best technical and operational practices to increase efficiency remain unexplained. The research reported in this paper offers a novel analysis that connected 2011 in-use fleet characteristics, first-ever global satellite data on ship movement, and technical literature on ship efficiency technology to assess the long-term prospects of increased shipping efficiency. This study also investigated how each ship characteristic influenced the efficiency of the shipping fleet. A ship stock turnover model was developed to track technical and operational efficiency practices in ships independently. The findings indicated that industry-leading ships were about twice as efficient as industry laggards across major ship types. If the available technical and in-use practices of the low-carbon industry leaders of today were fully embraced, the potential would exist to reduce carbon dioxide in absolute terms by more than 300 million metric tonnes by 2040, even while business-as-usual freight movement doubled. On the basis of the data in this assessment, the potential exists to develop a tool for shippers to quantify, evaluate, and compare their supply chain carbon footprints in a manner that does not rely on more aggregated fleet-average simplifications. The methodology, data, and findings of this study should benefit industry as it looks for ways to reduce energy consumption; researchers, who are examining ship operation; and policy makers, who want to curb the climate impact of international shipping.