Nikita Mkrtchyan

Interregional Migration of Youths in Russia: A Comprehensive Analysis of Demographic Statistics

Not dissimilar to many other countries, migration in Russia has a pronounced age-dependent pattern with the peak intensity at the age when people obtain a professional education. In this paper, we analyze migration intensity at student age (17–21) using three sources of demographic data with due regard for their key opportunities and limitations. We compare the migration attractiveness of Russian regions in three ways: (1) applying APC analysis to registration data, separately for two periods: 2003–2010 and 2011– 2013; the reason for sampling these two periods is because there was a significant change in the migration statistics collection practices in 2011; (2) using the age-shift method to analyze the data of the 2002 and 2010 Russian Censuses; we offer a way to refine the census data by discarding the non-migration-related changes in the age-sex structure; (3) using information about the average ratio of full-time university enrolments to the number of high school graduates in the academic years 2012/13 and 2013/14 across the regions. Based on the four indicators of migration intensity (intercensal estimates, statistical records for the two periods, and the graduate-enrolment ratio), we develop a ranking of the regions of Russia in migration attractiveness for young adults. A position in this ranking depends not only on the level of higher education development in a region but also on the consistent patterns of interregional migration in Russia. The regions in the European part of the country have a much higher chance of attracting student migrants.Ilya Kashnitskiy - Junior Research Fellow, Institute for Social Policy, National Research University Higher School of Economics; PhD Candidate, University of Groningen / Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute. E-mail: ilya.kashnitsky@gmail.com Nikita Mkrtchyan - Candidate of Sciences in Geography, Leading Research Fellow, Center for Demographical Studies, Institute of Demography, National Research University Higher School of Economics. E-mail: Mkrtchan2002@rambler.ru Oleg Leshukov - Junior Research Fellow, Institute of Education, National Research University Higher School of Economics. E-mail: oleshukov@hse.ru Address: 20 Myasnitskaya str., 101000 Moscow, Russian Federation Not dissimilar to many other countries, migration in Russia has a pronounced age-dependent pattern with the peak intensity at the age when people obtain higher and professional education. In this paper, we analyze migration intensity at student age (17-21) using three sources of demographic data with regard to their key opportunities and limitations. We compare the migration attractiveness of Russian regions in three ways. First, we apply APC analysis to the current migration statistical data, separately for two periods: 2003-2010 and 2011-2013. The reason for sampling these two periods is because there was a significant change in the migration statistics collection practices in 2011. Second, we use the age-shift method to analyze the data of the 2002 and 2010 Russian censuses. We offer a way to refine the census data by discarding the non-migration-related changes in the age-sex structure. Finally, we use information about the ratio between the number of school graduates and that of full-time high school enrolments in the academic years 2012/13 and 2013/14 across the regions. Based on the four indicators of migration intensity (intercensal estimates, statistical records for the two periods, and the graduate-enrolment ratio), we develop a rating of Russian regions in migration attractiveness for student-aged youths. A position in this rating depends not only on the level of higher education development in a region but also on the consistent patterns of interregional migration in Russia. The regions in the European part of the country have a much higher chance to attract migrants at student ages.

Russian Periphery is Dying in Movement: A Cohort Assessment of Russian Internal Youth Migration Based on Census Data

In this paper we study youth migration in Russia at the sub-regional level of administrative division. The aim of the research is to assess the volume of internal youth migration. The task is only doable with the use of census data, which not only allows us to research at the sub-regional level, but also provides much more accurate information on youth migration than the current migration record does. We used the survival method to study sub-regional population dynamics. As mortality is quite insignificant at young ages, most of the change in cohort size is caused by migration. Our estimates show that during the last intercensus period (2003-2010) up to 70 percent of youth cohorts have left the regional periphery for good after graduating from school, and there was no significant return to the demographically depleted periphery in the young working ages.

Labor Migration in Russia: International and Internal Aspects

The authors examine the processes of internal and international labor migration in Russia. Available sources of statistical information and a survey of studies allow us to define them as quantitatively comparable, but having pronounced regional differences. Despite the gravitation of both internal and international migrants to the largest cities, Russian temporary labor migrants more often go to work in the regions of the North and the East of the country. Russians and foreign migrants complement each other in the regional labor markets rather than compete. The results of the recent research conducted by Institute for Social Analysis and Prediction Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, used in the article, allow us to state that the social and economic effects of international and internal labor migration are similar. At the same time the significance of migration for the economy of households and local budgets in Russia is underestimated.