Nita G. Forouhi

Common genetic determinants of vitamin D insufficiency: a genome-wide association study

BACKGROUND Vitamin D is crucial for maintenance of musculoskeletal health, and might also have a role in extraskeletal tissues. Determinants of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations include sun exposure and diet, but high heritability suggests that genetic factors could also play a part. We aimed to identify common genetic variants affecting vitamin D concentrations and risk of insufficiency. METHODS We undertook a genome-wide association study of 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations in 33 996 individuals of European descent from 15 cohorts. Five epidemiological cohorts were designated as discovery cohorts (n=16 125), five as in-silico replication cohorts (n=9367), and five as de-novo replication cohorts (n=8504). 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations were measured by radioimmunoassay, chemiluminescent assay, ELISA, or mass spectrometry. Vitamin D insufficiency was defined as concentrations lower than 75 nmol/L or 50 nmol/L. We combined results of genome-wide analyses across cohorts using Z-score-weighted meta-analysis. Genotype scores were constructed for confirmed variants. FINDINGS Variants at three loci reached genome-wide significance in discovery cohorts for association with 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations, and were confirmed in replication cohorts: 4p12 (overall p=1.9x10(-109) for rs2282679, in GC); 11q12 (p=2.1x10(-27) for rs12785878, near DHCR7); and 11p15 (p=3.3x10(-20) for rs10741657, near CYP2R1). Variants at an additional locus (20q13, CYP24A1) were genome-wide significant in the pooled sample (p=6.0x10(-10) for rs6013897). Participants with a genotype score (combining the three confirmed variants) in the highest quartile were at increased risk of having 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations lower than 75 nmol/L (OR 2.47, 95% CI 2.20-2.78, p=2.3x10(-48)) or lower than 50 nmol/L (1.92, 1.70-2.16, p=1.0x10(-26)) compared with those in the lowest quartile. INTERPRETATION Variants near genes involved in cholesterol synthesis, hydroxylation, and vitamin D transport affect vitamin D status. Genetic variation at these loci identifies individuals who have substantially raised risk of vitamin D insufficiency. FUNDING Full funding sources listed at end of paper (see Acknowledgments).

Association of Dietary, Circulating, and Supplement Fatty Acids With Coronary Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Guidelines advocate changes in fatty acid consumption to promote cardiovascular health. PURPOSE To summarize evidence about associations between fatty acids and coronary disease. DATA SOURCES MEDLINE, Science Citation Index, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials through July 2013. STUDY SELECTION Prospective, observational studies and randomized, controlled trials. DATA EXTRACTION Investigators extracted data about study characteristics and assessed study biases. DATA SYNTHESIS There were 32 observational studies (530,525 participants) of fatty acids from dietary intake; 17 observational studies (25,721 participants) of fatty acid biomarkers; and 27 randomized, controlled trials (103,052 participants) of fatty acid supplementation. In observational studies, relative risks for coronary disease were 1.02 (95% CI, 0.97 to 1.07) for saturated, 0.99 (CI, 0.89 to 1.09) for monounsaturated, 0.93 (CI, 0.84 to 1.02) for long-chain ω-3 polyunsaturated, 1.01 (CI, 0.96 to 1.07) for ω-6 polyunsaturated, and 1.16 (CI, 1.06 to 1.27) for trans fatty acids when the top and bottom thirds of baseline dietary fatty acid intake were compared. Corresponding estimates for circulating fatty acids were 1.06 (CI, 0.86 to 1.30), 1.06 (CI, 0.97 to 1.17), 0.84 (CI, 0.63 to 1.11), 0.94 (CI, 0.84 to 1.06), and 1.05 (CI, 0.76 to 1.44), respectively. There was heterogeneity of the associations among individual circulating fatty acids and coronary disease. In randomized, controlled trials, relative risks for coronary disease were 0.97 (CI, 0.69 to 1.36) for α-linolenic, 0.94 (CI, 0.86 to 1.03) for long-chain ω-3 polyunsaturated, and 0.89 (CI, 0.71 to 1.12) for ω-6 polyunsaturated fatty acid supplementations. LIMITATION Potential biases from preferential publication and selective reporting. CONCLUSION Current evidence does not clearly support cardiovascular guidelines that encourage high consumption of polyunsaturated fatty acids and low consumption of total saturated fats. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, Cambridge National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, and Gates Cambridge.

Baseline Serum 25-Hydroxy Vitamin D Is Predictive of Future Glycemic Status and Insulin Resistance : The Medical Research Council Ely Prospective Study 1990–2000

OBJECTIVE—Accumulating epidemiological evidence suggests that hypovitaminosis D may be associated with type 2 diabetes and related metabolic risks. However, prospective data using the biomarker serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] are limited and therefore examined in the present study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—A total of 524 randomly selected nondiabetic men and women, aged 40–69 years at baseline, with measurements for serum 25(OH)D and IGF-1 in the population-based Ely Study, had glycemic status (oral glucose tolerance), lipids, insulin, anthropometry, and blood pressure measured and metabolic syndrome risk (metabolic syndrome z score) derived at baseline and at 10 years of follow-up. RESULTS—Age-adjusted baseline mean serum 25(OH)D was greater in men (64.5 nmol/l [95% CI 61.2–67.9]) than women (57.2 nmol/l [54.4,60.0]) and varied with season (highest late summer). Baseline 25(OH)D was associated inversely with 10-year risk of hyperglycemia (fasting glucose: β = −0.0023, P = 0.019; 2-h glucose: β = −0.0097, P = 0.006), insulin resistance (fasting insulin β = −0.1467, P = 0.010; homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance [HOMA-IR]: β = −0.0059, P = 0.005), and metabolic syndrome z score (β = −0.0016, P = 0.048) after adjustment for age, sex, smoking, BMI, season, and baseline value of each metabolic outcome variable. Associations with 2-h glucose, insulin, and HOMA-IR remained significant after further adjustment for IGF-1, parathyroid hormone, calcium, physical activity, and social class. CONCLUSIONS—This prospective study reports inverse associations between baseline serum 25(OH)D and future glycemia and insulin resistance. These associations are potentially important in understanding the etiology of abnormal glucose metabolism and warrant investigation in larger, specifically designed prospective studies and randomized controlled trials of supplementation.

Can metabolic syndrome usefully predict cardiovascular disease and diabetes? Outcome data from two prospective studies.

BACKGROUND Clinical use of criteria for metabolic syndrome to simultaneously predict risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes remains uncertain. We investigated to what extent metabolic syndrome and its individual components were related to risk for these two diseases in elderly populations. METHODS We related metabolic syndrome (defined on the basis of criteria from the Third Report of the National Cholesterol Education Program) and its five individual components to the risk of events of incident cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes in 4812 non-diabetic individuals aged 70-82 years from the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER). We corroborated these data in a second prospective study (the British Regional Heart Study [BRHS]) of 2737 non-diabetic men aged 60-79 years. FINDINGS In PROSPER, 772 cases of incident cardiovascular disease and 287 of diabetes occurred over 3.2 years. Metabolic syndrome was not associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease in those without baseline disease (hazard ratio 1.07 [95% CI 0.86-1.32]) but was associated with increased risk of diabetes (4.41 [3.33-5.84]) as was each of its components, particularly fasting glucose (18.4 [13.9-24.5]). Results were similar in participants with existing cardiovascular disease. In BRHS, 440 cases of incident cardiovascular disease and 105 of diabetes occurred over 7 years. Metabolic syndrome was modestly associated with incident cardiovascular disease (relative risk 1.27 [1.04-1.56]) despite strong association with diabetes (7.47 [4.90-11.46]). In both studies, body-mass index or waist circumference, triglyceride, and glucose cutoff points were not associated with risk of cardiovascular disease, but all five components were associated with risk of new-onset diabetes. INTERPRETATION Metabolic syndrome and its components are associated with type 2 diabetes but have weak or no association with vascular risk in elderly populations, suggesting that attempts to define criteria that simultaneously predict risk for both cardiovascular disease and diabetes are unhelpful. Clinical focus should remain on establishing optimum risk algorithms for each disease.

Baseline serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D is predictive of future glycaemic status and insulin resistance: The MRC Ely prospective study 1990 – 2000

OBJECTIVE—Accumulating epidemiological evidence suggests that hypovitaminosis D may be associated with type 2 diabetes and related metabolic risks. However, prospective data using the biomarker serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] are limited and therefore examined in the present study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—A total of 524 randomly selected nondiabetic men and women, aged 40–69 years at baseline, with measurements for serum 25(OH)D and IGF-1 in the population-based Ely Study, had glycemic status (oral glucose tolerance), lipids, insulin, anthropometry, and blood pressure measured and metabolic syndrome risk (metabolic syndrome z score) derived at baseline and at 10 years of follow-up. RESULTS—Age-adjusted baseline mean serum 25(OH)D was greater in men (64.5 nmol/l [95% CI 61.2–67.9]) than women (57.2 nmol/l [54.4,60.0]) and varied with season (highest late summer). Baseline 25(OH)D was associated inversely with 10-year risk of hyperglycemia (fasting glucose: β = −0.0023, P = 0.019; 2-h glucose: β = −0.0097, P = 0.006), insulin resistance (fasting insulin β = −0.1467, P = 0.010; homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance [HOMA-IR]: β = −0.0059, P = 0.005), and metabolic syndrome z score (β = −0.0016, P = 0.048) after adjustment for age, sex, smoking, BMI, season, and baseline value of each metabolic outcome variable. Associations with 2-h glucose, insulin, and HOMA-IR remained significant after further adjustment for IGF-1, parathyroid hormone, calcium, physical activity, and social class. CONCLUSIONS—This prospective study reports inverse associations between baseline serum 25(OH)D and future glycemia and insulin resistance. These associations are potentially important in understanding the etiology of abnormal glucose metabolism and warrant investigation in larger, specifically designed prospective studies and randomized controlled trials of supplementation.

Relation of C-reactive protein to body fat distribution and features of the metabolic syndrome in Europeans and South Asians

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between circulating C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations and indices of body fat distribution and the insulin resistance syndrome in South Asians and Europeans.DESIGN: Cross-sectional study.SUBJECTS: A total of 113 healthy South Asian and European men and women in West London (age 40–55 y, body mass index (BMI) 17–34 kg/m2).MEASUREMENTS: Fatness and fat distribution parameters (by anthropometry, dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and abdominal CT scan); oral glucose tolerance test with insulin response; modified fat tolerance test; and CRP concentration by sensitive ELISA.RESULTS: Median CRP level in South Asian women was nearly double that in European women (1.35 vs 0.70 mg/1, P=0.05). Measures of obesity and CRP concentration were significantly associated in both ethnic groups. The correlation to CRP was especially strong among South Asians (P<0.01) for measures of central obesity (waist girth and visceral fat area), whereas BMI and percentage fat were more significantly associated with CRP in Europeans (P<0.05). In South Asians the associations of CRP with visceral fat area and waist girth persisted after adjustment for either BMI or percent fat (all, P<0.05). In age-, sex- and smoking-adjusted regression analyses CRP concentrations were significantly associated with fasting and 2 h insulin and lipid levels in both ethnic groups (P<0.05). When further statistical adjustment was made for visceral fat area these associations were abolished (P>0.15).CONCLUSION: We suggest that adiposity and in particular visceral adipose tissue is a key promoter of low-grade chronic inflammation. This observation may in part account for the association of CRP with markers of the metabolic syndrome. Future studies should confirm whether CRP concentrations are elevated in South Asians and whether losing weight by exercise or diet, or reduction in visceral fat mass, is associated with reduction in plasma CRP concentrations.

Early Age at Menarche Associated with Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality

CONTEXT The relationship between age at menarche and cardiovascular disease remains unclear. Two recent studies found an inverse association between age at menarche and all-cause mortality. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between age at menarche and cardiovascular disease risk factors, events, and mortality. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A population-based prospective study involving 15,807 women, aged 40-79 yr in 1993-1997 and followed up to March 2007 for cardiovascular disease events (median follow-up 10.6 yr) and February 2008 for mortality (median follow-up 12.0 yr) was used. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Odds ratios for cardiovascular disease risk factors and hazard ratios for incident cardiovascular disease and mortality were calculated. RESULTS There were 3888 incident cardiovascular disease events (1323 coronary heart disease, 602 stroke, and 1963 other) and 1903 deaths (640 cardiovascular disease, 782 cancer, and 481 other) during follow-up. Compared with other women, those who had early menarche (<12 yr) had higher risks of hypertension [1.13 (1.02-1.24)], incident cardiovascular disease [1.17 (1.07-1.27)], incident coronary heart disease [1.23 (1.06-1.43)], all-cause mortality [1.22 (1.07-1.39)], cardiovascular disease mortality [1.28 (1.02-1.62)], and cancer mortality [1.25 (1.03-1.51)], adjusted for age, physical activity, smoking, alcohol, educational level, occupational social class, oral contraceptive use, hormone replacement therapy, parity, body mass index, and waist circumference. CONCLUSIONS Early age at menarche (before age 12 yr) was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease events, cardiovascular disease mortality, and overall mortality in women, and this association appeared to be only partly mediated by increased adiposity.

Diabetes and tuberculosis: the impact of the diabetes epidemic on tuberculosis incidence

BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) remains a major cause of mortality in developing countries, and in these countries diabetes prevalence is increasing rapidly. Diabetes increases the risk of TB. Our aim was to assess the potential impact of diabetes as a risk factor for incident pulmonary tuberculosis, using India as an example.MethodsWe constructed an epidemiological model using data on tuberculosis incidence, diabetes prevalence, population structure, and relative risk of tuberculosis associated with diabetes. We evaluated the contribution made by diabetes to both tuberculosis incidence, and to the difference between tuberculosis incidence in urban and rural areas.ResultsIn India in 2000 there were an estimated 20.7 million adults with diabetes, and 900,000 incident adult cases of pulmonary tuberculosis. Our calculations suggest that diabetes accounts for 14.8% (uncertainty range 7.1% to 23.8%) of pulmonary tuberculosis and 20.2% (8.3% to 41.9%) of smear-positive (i.e. infectious) tuberculosis.We estimate that the increased diabetes prevalence in urban areas is associated with a 15.2% greater smear-positive tuberculosis incidence in urban than rural areas – over a fifth of the estimated total difference.ConclusionDiabetes makes a substantial contribution to the burden of incident tuberculosis in India, and the association is particularly strong for the infectious form of tuberculosis. The current diabetes epidemic may lead to a resurgence of tuberculosis in endemic regions, especially in urban areas. This potentially carries a risk of global spread with serious implications for tuberculosis control and the achievement of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals.

Changes in booking body mass index over a decade: retrospective analysis from a Glasgow Maternity Hospital

Whether booking body mass index (BMI) in the UK is increasing is unknown but is of clinical interest since overweight or obese pregnant women face far greater risks of pregnancy complications including pre‐eclampsia and gestational diabetes. We examined booking BMI in 1990 and 2002/2004, of women with singleton pregnancies. Our analyses indicate an increase of 1 U in mean BMI over this period despite lower parity in recent years. When the model was adjusted for maternal age, parity, smoking status and deprivation category the mean BMI was 1.37 U higher in 2002/2004 than in 1990. More striking was the significant increase in the proportion of women who were obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) at booking—more than twofold higher in unadjusted analysis (18.9%vs 9.4%) rising to greater than threefold higher in multivariate analysis. These findings suggest that obesity‐related pregnancy complications are likely to increase with implications for both mother and child.

Plasma Vitamin C Level, Fruit and Vegetable Consumption, and the Risk of New-Onset Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus The European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk Prospective Study

BACKGROUND Epidemiologic studies suggest that greater consumption of fruit and vegetables may decrease the risk of diabetes mellitus, but the evidence is limited and inconclusive. Plasma vitamin C level is a good biomarker of fruit and vegetable intake, but, to our knowledge, no prospective studies have examined its association with diabetes risk. This study aims to examine whether fruit and vegetable intake and plasma vitamin C level are associated with the risk of incident type 2 diabetes. METHODS We administered a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire to men and women from a population-based prospective cohort (European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk) study who were aged 40 to 75 years at baseline (1993-1997) when plasma vitamin C level was determined and habitual intake of fruit and vegetables was assessed. During 12 years of follow-up between February 1993 and the end of December 2005, 735 clinically incident cases of diabetes were identified among 21 831 healthy individuals. We report the odds ratios of diabetes associated with sex-specific quintiles of fruit and vegetable intake and of plasma vitamin C levels. RESULTS A strong inverse association was found between plasma vitamin C level and diabetes risk. The odds ratio of diabetes in the top quintile of plasma vitamin C was 0.38 (95% confidence interval, 0.28-0.52) in a model adjusted for demographic, lifestyle, and anthropometric variables. In a similarly adjusted model, the odds ratio of diabetes in the top quintile of fruit and vegetable consumption was 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.60-1.00). CONCLUSIONS Higher plasma vitamin C level and, to a lesser degree, fruit and vegetable intake were associated with a substantially decreased risk of diabetes. Our findings highlight a potentially important public health message on the benefits of a diet rich in fruit and vegetables for the prevention of diabetes.