Oliver Schenker

On the effects of unilateral environmental policy on offshoring in multi-stage production processes

In the last decades supply chains emerged that stretch across many countries. This has been explained with decreasing trade and communication costs. We extend the literature by analyzing if and how unilateral environmental regulation induces offshoring to unregulated jurisdictions. We first apply an analytical partial-equilibrium model of a two-stage production process that can be distributed between two countries and investigate unilateral emission pricing and its supplementation with border carbon taxes. To get a more comprehensive picture, we subsequently apply a computable general equilibrium model that includes a better representation of international supply chains. We find heterogeneous, but mostly positive effects of a unilateral carbon emission reduction by the European Union on the degree of vertical specialisation of European industries and explain these differences by heterogeneity in the emission-intensity and pre-policy vertical specialisation of sectors. Border taxes are successful in protecting upstream industries, but with negative side effects for downstream industries.

International Trade and the Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability

This paper has three messages mainly, which are observed in a simple model of climate change, international trade and regional adaptation. First, trade can be viewed as a kind of adaptation to climate change and variability, as trade can help to reduce direct impacts of global climate change on a regions welfare. In particular, the less affected and the richer nations are, the more they can profit from moderating the impacts of global climate change through trade. Second, if regions are rich enough to adapt optimally to climate change, the resulting allocation of adaptation measures is Pareto-efficient. In this case funding of adaptation, which is an element of international climate policy, does not make sense from an economic perspective. Third, since the regions of the South typically lack the resources for adapting optimally to climate change, because of terms of trade effects, it might be in the selfinterest of the industrialized nations to fund adaptation in the developing part of the world. However, providing financial assistance for adaptation can be Pareto-improving only, if the benefits of funding, i.e., damages, which are moderated through adaptation, are big enough, and hence, if the recipients own expenditure for adaptation is low. If not, the paradoxical effect of recipient immiserization through tied transfers can occur.

Ups and Downs: How Economic Growth Affects Policy Interactions

Current climate and energy policy has to operate under an ex-ante unforeseen economic crisis. An obvious consequence is the collapse of prices for carbon emission allowances as, for example, seen in the European Union. However, this price collapse may be amplified by the interaction of a carbon emission cap and supplementary policy targets such as the minimum shares for renewables in the power sector. The static interaction between climate and renewable policies has been discussed extensively. This paper extends this debate by analysing how uncertain differences in medium to long-run growth rates affect the effciency and effectiveness of a policy portfolio containing an emission trading scheme and a target for a minimum renewable share. Making use of a simple partial equilibrium model we identify an asymmetric interaction of emissions trading and renewable quotas with respect to different growth rates of an economy. The results imply that unintended consequences of the policy interaction may be particularly severe and costly when economic growth is low and that carbon prices are more sensitive to changes in economic growth if they are applied in combination with renewable energy targets. Our main example for the policy interaction is the EU, yet our research also relates particularly well to the uncertainty of economic growth in fast growing emerging economies like China.

Kosten des Klimawandels und Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaft

Klimawandelbedingte Kosten entstehen in einer Kaskade von Wirkungsmechanismen und -kreislaufen, die jeweils mit zahlreichen Unsicherheiten verbunden sind. Die Menge der Treibhausgasemissionen bestimmt, wie sich Atmosphare und Klima auf der Erde verandern. Die Reaktion des Klimasystems mit seinen zahlreichen Ruckkopplungseffekten fuhrt zu regional unterschiedlichen – positiven oder negativen -- Wirtschafts- und Wohlfahrtseffekten. Bei der Reaktion auf diese Effekte durch Einflussnahme auf die Emissionen schliest sich der Kreis.