Øyvind Endresen

Future cost scenarios for reduction of ship CO2 emissions

International shipping is a significant contributor to Global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, responsible for approximately 3% of global CO2 emissions. The International Maritime Organization is currently working to establish GHG regulations for international shipping and a cost effectiveness approach has been suggested to determine the required emission reductions from shipping. To achieve emission reductions in a cost effective manner, this study has assessed the cost and reduction potential for present and future abatement measures based on new and unpublished data. The model used captures the world fleet up to 2030, and the analysis includes 25 separate measures. A new integrated modelling approach has been used combining fleet projections with activity-based CO2 emission modelling and projected development of measures for CO2 emission reduction. The world fleet projections up to 2030 are constructed using a fleet growth model that takes into account assumed ship type specific scrapping and new building rates. A baseline trajectory for CO2 emission is then established. The reduction potential from the baseline trajectory and the associated marginal cost levels are calculated for 25 different emission reduction measures. The results are given as marginal abatement cost curves, and as future cost scenarios for reduction of world fleet CO2 emissions. The results show that a scenario in which CO2 emissions are reduced by 33% from baseline in 2030 is achievable at a marginal cost of USD 0 per tonne reduced. At this cost level, emission in 2010 can be reduced by 19% and by 24% in 2020. A scenario with 49% reduction from baseline in 2030 can be achieved at a marginal cost of USD 100 per tonne (27% in 2010 and 35% in 2020). Furthermore, it is evident that further increasing the cost level beyond USD 100 per tonne yield very little in terms of further emission reduction. The results also indicate that stabilising fleet emissions at current levels is obtainable at moderate costs, compensating for fleet growth up to 2030. However, significant reductions beyond current levels seem difficult to achieve. Marginal abatement costs for the major ship types are also calculated, and the results are shown to be relatively homogenous for all major ship types. The presented data and methodology could be very useful for assisting the industry and policymakers in selecting cost effective solutions for reducing GHG emissions from the world fleet.

Cost-effectiveness assessment of CO2 reducing measures in shipping

International shipping is a significant contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and is under mounting pressure to contribute to overall GHG emission reductions. There is an ongoing debate regarding how much the sector could be expected to reduce emissions and how the reduction could be achieved. This paper details a methodology for assessing the cost-effectiveness of technical and operational measures for reducing CO2 emissions from shipping, through the development of an evaluation parameter called the Cost of Averting a Tonne of CO2-eq Heating, CATCH, and decision criterion, against which the evaluation parameter should be evaluated. The methodology is in line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and with regulatory work on safety and environmental protection issues at the International Maritime Organization (IMO). The results of this study suggest that CATCH <50

Cost-effectiveness criteria for marine oil spill preventive measures

/tonne of CO2-eq should be used as a decision criterion for investment in emission reduction measures for shipping. In total, 13 specific measures for reducing CO2 emissions have been analysed for two selected case ships to illustrate the methodology. Results from this work shows that several measures are cost effective according to the proposed criterion. The results suggest that cost effective reductions for the fleet may well be in the order of 30% for technical measures, and above 50% when including speed reductions. The results of this study show that the cost effectiveness approach for the regulation of shipping emissions is viable and should be pursued in the ongoing regulatory process.

Effect of proposed CO2 emission reduction scenarios on capital expenditure

Oil tanker accidents resulting in large quantities of oil spills and severe pollution have occurred in the past, leading to major public attention and an international focus on finding solutions for minimising the risks related to such events. This paper proposes a novel approach for evaluating measures for prevention and control of marine oil spills, based on considerations of oil spill risk and cost effectiveness. A cost model that incorporates all costs of a shipping accident has been established and oil tanker spill accidents have been further elaborated as a special case of such accidents. Utilising this model, novel implementation criteria, in terms of the Cost of Averting a Tonne of oil Spilt (CATS), for risk control options aiming at mitigating the environmental risk of accidental oil spills, are proposed. The paper presents a review of previous studies on the costs associated with oil spills from shipping, which is a function of many factors such as location of spill, spill amount, type of oil, etc. However, ships are designed for global trade, transporting different oil qualities. Therefore, globally applicable criteria must average over most of these factors, and the spill amount is the remaining factor that will be used to measure cost effectiveness against. A weighted, global average cleanup cost of USD 16,000/tonne of oil spilt has been calculated, considering the distribution of oil tanker traffic densities. Finally, the criteria are compared with some existing regulations for oil spill prevention, response and compensation (OPA 90).

Impacts of the Large Increase in International Ship Traffic 2000―2007 on Tropospheric Ozone and Methane

The International Maritime Organisation is currently working on establishing regulations for international shipping regarding greenhouse gas emissions, and a cost-effectiveness approach has been suggested as one method for determining the necessary reductions in emissions from shipping. Previous studies have investigated the CO2 emission reduction potential for the world shipping fleet up to 2030 and the associated marginal abatement cost levels. To analyse the cost implications of different emission reduction scenarios, this study has calculated the emission reduction potential and additional capital expenditure for 25 CO2 emission reduction measures applied to 59 ship segments. The expected fleet development over time, keeping track of new ships built from 2010 to 2030 and Existing ships built prior to 2010 and still in operation by 2030, have been modelled. Two alternative approaches to find the cost-effective potential in the world shipping fleet have been applied. One approach is to implement only measures which in themselves are cost-effective (measure-by-measure), and another approach is to implement measures as long as the net savings from cost-effective measures balance the costs of non-cost-effective measures (set of measures). The results demonstrate that by 2030, the majority (93%) of the reduction potential will be related to new ships. Our results show that the measure-by-measure approach would decrease the CO2 emissions by 30% for new ships while the set-of-measures approach with 53% (of the 2030 baseline emissions of 1316 Mt). The implication of achieving such emission reduction is an increase in the capital expenditure on New ships by 6% (USD 183 billion) and 27% (USD 761 billion), respectively, in the period 2010 to 2030 compared to a business-as-usual scenario. The measure-by-measure approach yields a 5% decrease in CO2 emission per 1% increase in capital expenditure, while the set-of-measures approach yields a 2% decrease per 1% increase. This is due to the significant variation in capital intensity of the different measures, ranging from almost zero to USD 200 per tonne of CO2 averted. The results of this study are useful for the shipping industry to assess the economic burden that must be shouldered in order to implement abatement measures under different CO2 emission reduction scenarios.

Environmental accounting for Arctic shipping - a framework building on ship tracking data from satellites.

The increase in civil world fleet ship emissions during the period 2000-2007 and the effects on key tropospheric oxidants are quantified using a global Chemical Transport Model (CTM). We estimate a substantial increase of 33% in global ship emissions over this period. The impact of ship emissions on tropospheric oxidants is mainly caused by the relatively large fraction of NOx in ship exhaust. Typical increases in yearly average surface ozone concentrations in the most impacted areas are 0.5-2.5 ppbv. The global annual mean radiative forcing due to ozone increases in the troposphere is 10 mWm(-2) over the period 2000-2007. We find global average tropospheric OH increase of 1.03% over the same period. As a result of this the global average tropospheric methane concentration is reduced by approximately 2.2% over a period corresponding to the turnover time. The resulting methane radiative forcing is -14 mWm(-2) with an additional contribution of -6 mWm(-2) from methane induced reduction in ozone. The net forcing of the ozone and methane changes due to ship emissions changes between 2000 and 2007 is -10 mWm(-2). This is significant compared to the net forcing of these components in 2000. Our findings support earlier observational studies indicating that ship traffic may be a major contributor to recent enhancement of background ozone at some coastal stations. Furthermore, by reducing global mean tropospheric methane by 40 ppbv over its turnover time it is likely to contribute to the recent observed leveling off in global mean methane concentration.

CO2 abatement potential towards 2050 for shipping, including alternative fuels.

Arctic shipping is on the rise, leading to increased concern over the potential environmental impacts. To better understand the magnitude of influence to the Arctic environment, detailed modelling of emissions and environmental risks are essential. This paper describes a framework for environmental accounting. A cornerstone in the framework is the use of Automatic Identification System (AIS) ship tracking data from satellites. When merged with ship registers and other data sources, it enables unprecedented accuracy in modelling and geographical allocation of emissions and discharges. This paper presents results using two of the models in the framework; emissions of black carbon (BC) in the Arctic, which is of particular concern for climate change, and; bunker fuels and wet bulk carriage in the Arctic, of particular concern for oil spill to the environment. Using the framework, a detailed footprint from Arctic shipping with regards to operational emissions and potential discharges is established.

International Maritime Shipping

Background: Recent studies have demonstrated a cost-effective potential to reduce the CO2 emissions in the existing world shipping fleet by 15%, and by 30% for the 2030 fleet. Methods & results: CO2 abatement pathways for shipping towards 2050 have been modeled, using a new probabilistic model. In addition to measures analyzed in the past, the uptake of alternative fuels is modeled. The results show that with uptake of operational and technical measures, as well as biofuels and liquefied natural gas, the cost-effective CO2 reduction potential in 2050 is in the order of 50%. Conclusion: For shipping to substantially contribute to a 2°C pathway, a financial incentive for biofuel is one alterative, but nuclear power in large ships could also cut emissions drastically.

Accuracy of simplified transport estimations in narrow sea straits

This chapter explores how the maritime industry has transformed its technologies, national registries and labour resources over the past decades to serve the demands of globalisation. It looks at the global economic role of shipping, describing the marine transport system as a network of specialised vessels, the ports they visit, and transport infrastructure from factories to terminals to distribution centres to markets. The chapter presents maritime transport as a necessary complement to, and occasionally a substitute for, other modes of freight transport. For many commodities and trade routes, there is no direct substitute for waterborne commerce. On other routes, such as some coastwise or shortsea shipping or within inland river systems, marine transport may provide a substitute for roads and rail, depending upon cost, time and infrastructure constraints. The chapter traces maritime transformations in response to globalisation, from the shift of human labour (oars) to wind-driven sail, and the shift from sail to combustion. Two primary motivators for energy technology innovation – greater performance at lower cost – caused this conversion. It explores current maritime shipping activity to explain why ocean-going ships now have an activity level making them consume about 2% to 3% – and perhaps even as much as 4% – of world fossil fuels. The chapter examines future developments by extrapolating historical growth trends, and looking at scenario-based estimates.

Impacts de l'élevation du niveau d'activité du transport maritime international sur l'environnement

A study of the current distribution in the cross section of the Drobak Sound has been carried out to determine how extensive the measurements have to be in order to calculate the transport (volume flux) with an acceptable accuracy. It is discussed how the accuracy varies for estimates obtained from current observations at one point, and from one vertical current profile. The best estimates are obtained from the vertical integral of the depth-dependent velocity component normal to the cross section at its largest depth, multiplied by the depth-dependent width of the Sound. The errors are then reduced to 15–20% of the mean transport. This method has also been tested on current observations from other straits and estuaries to see if it could be of a more general applicability. It is concluded that an accuracy with errors ≤10% requires a complete series of measurements with numerous vertical profiles along the cross section. If errors up to 20% can be accepted, the work can be largely reduced by measuring only one vertical current profile and applying the aforementioned method.