Magnus S. Eide

Future cost scenarios for reduction of ship CO2 emissions

International shipping is a significant contributor to Global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, responsible for approximately 3% of global CO2 emissions. The International Maritime Organization is currently working to establish GHG regulations for international shipping and a cost effectiveness approach has been suggested to determine the required emission reductions from shipping. To achieve emission reductions in a cost effective manner, this study has assessed the cost and reduction potential for present and future abatement measures based on new and unpublished data. The model used captures the world fleet up to 2030, and the analysis includes 25 separate measures. A new integrated modelling approach has been used combining fleet projections with activity-based CO2 emission modelling and projected development of measures for CO2 emission reduction. The world fleet projections up to 2030 are constructed using a fleet growth model that takes into account assumed ship type specific scrapping and new building rates. A baseline trajectory for CO2 emission is then established. The reduction potential from the baseline trajectory and the associated marginal cost levels are calculated for 25 different emission reduction measures. The results are given as marginal abatement cost curves, and as future cost scenarios for reduction of world fleet CO2 emissions. The results show that a scenario in which CO2 emissions are reduced by 33% from baseline in 2030 is achievable at a marginal cost of USD 0 per tonne reduced. At this cost level, emission in 2010 can be reduced by 19% and by 24% in 2020. A scenario with 49% reduction from baseline in 2030 can be achieved at a marginal cost of USD 100 per tonne (27% in 2010 and 35% in 2020). Furthermore, it is evident that further increasing the cost level beyond USD 100 per tonne yield very little in terms of further emission reduction. The results also indicate that stabilising fleet emissions at current levels is obtainable at moderate costs, compensating for fleet growth up to 2030. However, significant reductions beyond current levels seem difficult to achieve. Marginal abatement costs for the major ship types are also calculated, and the results are shown to be relatively homogenous for all major ship types. The presented data and methodology could be very useful for assisting the industry and policymakers in selecting cost effective solutions for reducing GHG emissions from the world fleet.

Cost-effectiveness assessment of CO2 reducing measures in shipping

International shipping is a significant contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and is under mounting pressure to contribute to overall GHG emission reductions. There is an ongoing debate regarding how much the sector could be expected to reduce emissions and how the reduction could be achieved. This paper details a methodology for assessing the cost-effectiveness of technical and operational measures for reducing CO2 emissions from shipping, through the development of an evaluation parameter called the Cost of Averting a Tonne of CO2-eq Heating, CATCH, and decision criterion, against which the evaluation parameter should be evaluated. The methodology is in line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and with regulatory work on safety and environmental protection issues at the International Maritime Organization (IMO). The results of this study suggest that CATCH <50

Under-reporting of maritime accidents

/tonne of CO2-eq should be used as a decision criterion for investment in emission reduction measures for shipping. In total, 13 specific measures for reducing CO2 emissions have been analysed for two selected case ships to illustrate the methodology. Results from this work shows that several measures are cost effective according to the proposed criterion. The results suggest that cost effective reductions for the fleet may well be in the order of 30% for technical measures, and above 50% when including speed reductions. The results of this study show that the cost effectiveness approach for the regulation of shipping emissions is viable and should be pursued in the ongoing regulatory process.

Effect of proposed CO2 emission reduction scenarios on capital expenditure

The majority of current maritime regulations has been developed following a reactive approach, often as ad-hoc response to serious accidents, and are characterised as being prescriptive leaving limited space for adapting equivalent solutions rather those described in the regulations. On the premise of providing a more proactive approach for the proposal or the evaluation of regulations, the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) has been introduced. In the context of FSA, the analysis of accident data is considered to be very important for providing potential input on developing more balanced, proactive and cost-effective regulations. However, it has been argued that the validity of historical data may be undermined by uncertainties. This paper is aimed at showing evidence on serious under-reporting in accident databases, which can be considered as the main contributor to questioning the direct and uncritical use of historical data. By analysing the 10-year tanker accident data from the Lloyds Register FairPlay (LRFP) and the Norwegian Maritime Directorate (NMD) for vessels registered in Norway, it is found that the reporting performance has an upper bound of 41% for NMD and 30% for LRFP. Furthermore, based on comparison between LRFP data and self-assessment by Flag States, it is seen that accidents reported by the Flag States are also incomplete.

Determining a Required Energy Efficiency Design Index Level for New Ships based on a Cost-Effectiveness Criterion

The International Maritime Organisation is currently working on establishing regulations for international shipping regarding greenhouse gas emissions, and a cost-effectiveness approach has been suggested as one method for determining the necessary reductions in emissions from shipping. Previous studies have investigated the CO2 emission reduction potential for the world shipping fleet up to 2030 and the associated marginal abatement cost levels. To analyse the cost implications of different emission reduction scenarios, this study has calculated the emission reduction potential and additional capital expenditure for 25 CO2 emission reduction measures applied to 59 ship segments. The expected fleet development over time, keeping track of new ships built from 2010 to 2030 and Existing ships built prior to 2010 and still in operation by 2030, have been modelled. Two alternative approaches to find the cost-effective potential in the world shipping fleet have been applied. One approach is to implement only measures which in themselves are cost-effective (measure-by-measure), and another approach is to implement measures as long as the net savings from cost-effective measures balance the costs of non-cost-effective measures (set of measures). The results demonstrate that by 2030, the majority (93%) of the reduction potential will be related to new ships. Our results show that the measure-by-measure approach would decrease the CO2 emissions by 30% for new ships while the set-of-measures approach with 53% (of the 2030 baseline emissions of 1316 Mt). The implication of achieving such emission reduction is an increase in the capital expenditure on New ships by 6% (USD 183 billion) and 27% (USD 761 billion), respectively, in the period 2010 to 2030 compared to a business-as-usual scenario. The measure-by-measure approach yields a 5% decrease in CO2 emission per 1% increase in capital expenditure, while the set-of-measures approach yields a 2% decrease per 1% increase. This is due to the significant variation in capital intensity of the different measures, ranging from almost zero to USD 200 per tonne of CO2 averted. The results of this study are useful for the shipping industry to assess the economic burden that must be shouldered in order to implement abatement measures under different CO2 emission reduction scenarios.

Impacts of the Large Increase in International Ship Traffic 2000―2007 on Tropospheric Ozone and Methane

The maritime industry is expected to contribute to Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reductions, and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) is working on possible ways of regulating shippings GHG emissions. One possible instrument is the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI). However, there is no agreement on a mandatory application or how to set the required targets. This article presents an approach where a required index level (I R) can be determined through a cost-effectiveness assessment of the available reduction measures. A decision criterion of 50 USD per tonne CO2-eq. averted is used, based on a 2°C stabilisation level target. For illustration purposes, eleven emission reduction measures are analysed for implementation on a representative ship, and the I R is reached after applying the measures fulfilling the decision criterion. Using the same principles, other regulatory requirements such as a cap on emissions from shipping, e.g. for use in a shipping emissions trading scheme, can be developed. Using a cost-effectiveness approach in setting a I R or determining a cap will avoid prescriptive regulations detailing specific measures to be implemented, and the costs imposed by new requirements may be justified on the basis of the achievable emission reductions and cross-sector potential for achieving a global reduction target.

Climate penalty for shifting shipping to the Arctic.

The increase in civil world fleet ship emissions during the period 2000-2007 and the effects on key tropospheric oxidants are quantified using a global Chemical Transport Model (CTM). We estimate a substantial increase of 33% in global ship emissions over this period. The impact of ship emissions on tropospheric oxidants is mainly caused by the relatively large fraction of NOx in ship exhaust. Typical increases in yearly average surface ozone concentrations in the most impacted areas are 0.5-2.5 ppbv. The global annual mean radiative forcing due to ozone increases in the troposphere is 10 mWm(-2) over the period 2000-2007. We find global average tropospheric OH increase of 1.03% over the same period. As a result of this the global average tropospheric methane concentration is reduced by approximately 2.2% over a period corresponding to the turnover time. The resulting methane radiative forcing is -14 mWm(-2) with an additional contribution of -6 mWm(-2) from methane induced reduction in ozone. The net forcing of the ozone and methane changes due to ship emissions changes between 2000 and 2007 is -10 mWm(-2). This is significant compared to the net forcing of these components in 2000. Our findings support earlier observational studies indicating that ship traffic may be a major contributor to recent enhancement of background ozone at some coastal stations. Furthermore, by reducing global mean tropospheric methane by 40 ppbv over its turnover time it is likely to contribute to the recent observed leveling off in global mean methane concentration.

Environmental accounting for Arctic shipping - a framework building on ship tracking data from satellites.

The changing climate in the Arctic opens new shipping routes. A shift to shorter Arctic transit will, however, incur a climate penalty over the first one and a half centuries. We investigate the net climate effect of diverting a segment of Europe-Asia container traffic from the Suez to an Arctic transit route. We find an initial net warming for the first one-and-a-half centuries, which gradually declines and transitions to net cooling as the effects of CO2 reductions become dominant, resulting in climate mitigation only in the long term. Thus, the possibilities for shifting shipping to the Arctic confront policymakers with the question of how to weigh a century-scale warming with large uncertainties versus a long-term climate benefit from CO2 reductions.

CO2 abatement potential towards 2050 for shipping, including alternative fuels.

Arctic shipping is on the rise, leading to increased concern over the potential environmental impacts. To better understand the magnitude of influence to the Arctic environment, detailed modelling of emissions and environmental risks are essential. This paper describes a framework for environmental accounting. A cornerstone in the framework is the use of Automatic Identification System (AIS) ship tracking data from satellites. When merged with ship registers and other data sources, it enables unprecedented accuracy in modelling and geographical allocation of emissions and discharges. This paper presents results using two of the models in the framework; emissions of black carbon (BC) in the Arctic, which is of particular concern for climate change, and; bunker fuels and wet bulk carriage in the Arctic, of particular concern for oil spill to the environment. Using the framework, a detailed footprint from Arctic shipping with regards to operational emissions and potential discharges is established.

COSSARC: Concept Selection for Shipping in the Arctic

Background: Recent studies have demonstrated a cost-effective potential to reduce the CO2 emissions in the existing world shipping fleet by 15%, and by 30% for the 2030 fleet. Methods & results: CO2 abatement pathways for shipping towards 2050 have been modeled, using a new probabilistic model. In addition to measures analyzed in the past, the uptake of alternative fuels is modeled. The results show that with uptake of operational and technical measures, as well as biofuels and liquefied natural gas, the cost-effective CO2 reduction potential in 2050 is in the order of 50%. Conclusion: For shipping to substantially contribute to a 2°C pathway, a financial incentive for biofuel is one alterative, but nuclear power in large ships could also cut emissions drastically.