P. Dorian Owen

Health capital and cross-country variation in income per capita in the Mankiw-Romer-Weil model

Abstract This paper examines the effects of incorporating a proxy for health capital in Mankiw, Romer and Weils empirical growth model. Results suggest a stronger and more robust relationship between income per capita and health capital, than between income per capita and educational human capital.

Uncertainty of Outcome and Super 12 Rugby Union Attendance Application of a General-to-Specific Modeling Strategy

This article investigates the determinants of attendance at New Zealand matches in the Super 12 rugby union competition from 1999 to 2001. Emphasis is placed on testing the effects of within-season and match uncertainty of outcome on demand. A general to specific model selection approach, using Hendry and Krolzig’s automated procedures, is applied to a general model that includes potential economic and sporting demand determinants. The results suggest that factors with a statistically significant effect on attendance mainly reflect habit and tradition, such as previous attendance and traditional rivalries, or are beyond the control of administrators, such as rainfall and team placings.

General-to-Specific Modelling Using PcGets

This review examines the facilities provided by PcGets version 1.0, an OxMetrics module designed to implement automated general-to-specific model selection in the context of cross-section or dynamic time-series models that are linear in the parameters. A cross-section empirical example is used to illustrate the steps involved, the output produced and the options available for modellers. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2003.

Limitations of the relative standard deviation of win percentages for measuring competitive balance in sports leagues

The relative standard deviation of win percentages, the most widely used measure of within-season competitive balance, has an upper bound which is very sensitive to variation in the numbers of teams and games played. Taking into account this upper bound provides additional insight into comparisons of competitive balance across leagues or over time.

Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches

This paper develops a new simulation-based measure of playoff uncertainty and investigates its contribution to modelling match attendance compared to other variants of playoff uncertainty in the existing literature. A model of match attendance that incorporates match uncertainty, playoff uncertainty, past home-team performance and other relevant control variables is fitted to Australian National Rugby League data for seasons 2004-2008 using fixed effects estimation. The results suggest that playoff uncertainty and home-team success are more important determinants of match attendance than match uncertainty. Alternative measures of playoff uncertainty based on points behind the leader, although more ad hoc, also appear able to capture the effects of playoff uncertainty.

Which Institutions are Good for Your Health? The Deep Determinants of Comparative Cross-Country Health Status

We extend the literature on the deep determinants of economic development by focusing on life expectancy, instead of income per capita, as an indicator of economic development, and by examining the role of informal, as well as formal, institutions. Our empirical results suggest that formal and informal institutions are substitutes. Improving informal institutions has positive effects on life expectancy that are statistically significant for most countries and stronger than the effects of improving formal institutions. The gains from improving informal institutions are greatest for countries in which institutions are weakest. Geographical factors also help explain cross-country variation in life expectancy.

Cointegration analysis of the Fisher hypothesis: the role of the real rate and the Fisher identity

The Fisher hypothesis on the long-run relationship between inflation and nominal interest rates has recently been investigated using cointegration techniques. This paper examines the role of the expected real rate in such cointegration analyses. It is shown that, contrary to Bonhams (1991) suggestion, it is inappropriate to add a proxy for the expected real rate to hypothesized cointegrating relations involving the nominal rate and inflation. An alternative framework for analysis of the Fisher hypothesis is presented which distinguishes between the Fisher identity and long-run behavioural equations for nominal and real rates; different possible empirical outcomes are discussed.

Competitive Balance Measures in Sports Leagues: The Effects of Variation in Season Length

This paper examines the distributional properties of the ratio of standard deviations (RSD) of points percentages, the most common measure of competitive balance (CB) in the sports economics literature, in comparison with other standard-deviation-based CB measures. Simulation methods are used to evaluate the effects of changes in season length on the distributions of CB measures for different distributions of the strengths of teams in a league. The popular RSD measure performs as expected in cases of perfect balance but, if there is imbalance in team strengths, its distribution is very sensitive to changes in season length. This has important implications for comparisons of RSD values for different sports leagues with different numbers of teams and/or games played.

Measuring Parity in Sports Leagues with Draws: Further Comments

This article reexamines the calculation of the relative standard deviation (RSD) measure of competitive balance in leagues in which draws are possible outcomes. Some key conclusions emerging from the exchange between Cain and Haddock and Fort are reversed. There is no difference, for any given points assignment scheme, between the RSD for absolute points compared to percentages of points. However, variations in the points assignment that change the ratio of points for a win compared to a draw do result in different RSD values, although the numerical differences are minor.

Inference on productivity differentials in multi-sector models of economic growth

Non-zero marginal factor productivity differentials between sectors are a key feature of multi-sector models of economic growth, suggesting the potential for welfare gains through reallocation of resources between sectors. However, in existing studies, inference on the parameter reflecting productivity differentials is inadequate. Reparameterization of hypotheses relating to the productivity differential parameter allows, under the usual assumptions, exact finite-sample inference to be applied. Confidence intervals based on this approach applied to existing published studies suggest that many of the inferences on the potential gains in growth from exploiting inter-sectoral productivity differences are fragile.