P. Rafaj

Projections of SO2, NOx and carbonaceous aerosols emissions in Asia

Estimates of Asian emissions of air pollutants and carbonaceous aerosols and their mid-term projections have been changing significantly in the last years. The remote sensing community has shown that increase in NOx in Central East Asia is much stronger than any of the emission inventories or projections indicated so far. A number of studies reviewing older estimates appeared. Here, we review the key contributions and compare them to the most recent results of the GAINS model application for Asia and to the SRES projections used in the IPPC work. The recent projections indicate that the growth of emissions of SO2 in Asia should slow down significantly towards 2010 or even stabilize at the current level. For NOx, however, further growth is projected although it will be most likely slower that in the last decade, owing to introduction of measures in transport. Emissions of carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon and organic carbon) are expected to decline after 2010, largely due to reduced use of biofuels in residential sector and efficiency improvements. The estimates of these emissions are burdened with significantly larger uncertainties than SO2 and NOx; even for the year 2000 the differences in estimates between studies are up to a factor of 2.

Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon

This paper presents the first comprehensive assessment of historical (1990-2010) global anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) emissions including consistent and harmonized calculation of mass-based size distribution (PM1, PM2.5, PM10) as well as primary carbonaceous aerosols including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). The estimates were 10 developed with the integrated assessment model GAINS, where sourceand region-specific technology characteristics are explicitly included. This assessment includes a number of previously unaccounted or often misallocated emission sources, i.e., kerosene lamps, gas flaring, diesel generators, trash burning; some of them were reported in the past for selected regions or in the context of a particular pollutant or sector but not included as part of a total estimate. Spatially, emissions were calculated for 170 source regions (as well as international shipping), presented for 25 global regions, and allocated to 0.5 o x 15 0.5 o longitude-latitude grids. No independent estimates of emissions from forest fires and savannah burning are provided and neither windblown dust nor unpaved roads emissions are included. We estimate that global emissions of PM have not changed significantly between 1990 and 2010, showing a strong decoupling from the global increase in energy consumption and consequently, CO2 emissions but there are significantly different regional trends, with a particularly strong increase in East Asia and Africa and a strong decline in Europe, North 20 America and Pacific. This in turn resulted in important changes in the spatial pattern of PM burden, e.g., European, North American, and Pacific contributions to global emissions dropped from nearly 30% in 1990 to well below 15% in 2010, while Asia’s contribution grew from just over 50% to nearly 2/3 of the global total in 2010. For all considered PM species, Asian sources represented over 60% of the global anthropogenic total, and residential combustion was the most important sector contributing about 60% for BC and OC, 45% for PM2.5 and less than 40% for PM10 where large combustion sources and 25 industrial processes are equally important. Global anthropogenic emissions of BC were estimated at about 6.6 and 7.2 Tg in 2000 and 2010, respectively, and represent about 15% of PM2.5 but for some sources reach nearly 50%, i.e., transport sector. Our global BC numbers are higher than previously published owing primarily to inclusion of new sources. This PM estimate fills the gap in emission data and emission source characterization required in air quality and climate modelling studies and health impact assessments at a regional and global level, as it includes both carbonaceous and non30 carbonaceous constituents of primary particulate matter emissions. The developed emission data set has been used in several Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., doi:10.5194/acp-2016-880, 2016 Manuscript under review for journal Atmos. Chem. Phys. Published: 20 October 2016 c

Changes in European greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions 1960–2010: decomposition of determining factors

This paper analyses factors that contributed to the evolution of SO2, NOx and CO2 emissions in Europe from 1960 to 2010. Historical energy balances, along with population and economic growth data, are used to quantify the impacts of major determinants of changing emission levels, including energy intensity, conversion efficiency, fuel mix, and pollution control. Time series of emission levels are compared for countries in Western and Eastern Europe, throwing light on differences in the importance of particular emission-driving forces. Three quarters of the decline in SO2 emissions in Western Europe resulted from a combination of reduced energy intensity and improved fuel mix, while dedicated end-of-pipe abatement measures played a dominant role in the reduction of NOx emissions. The increase in atmospheric emissions in Eastern Europe through the mid-1990s was associated with the growth of energy-intensive industries, which off-setted the positive impact of better fuel quality and changes in fuel mix. A continuous decrease in energy intensity and higher conversion efficiencies have been the main factors responsible for the moderate rate of growth of European CO2 emissions.

Sectoral marginal abatement cost curves: implications for mitigation pledges and air pollution co-benefits for Annex I countries

Using the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas–Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) model, we derived Annex I marginal abatement cost curves for the years 2020 and 2030 for three World Energy Outlook baseline scenarios (2007–2009) of the International Energy Agency. These cost curves are presented by country, by greenhouse gas and by sector. They are available for further inter-country comparisons in the GAINS Mitigation Efforts Calculator—a free online tool. We illustrate the influence of the baseline scenario on the shape of mitigation cost curves, and identify key low cost options as well as no-regret priority investment areas for the years 2010–2030. Finally, we show the co-effect of GHG mitigation on the emissions of local air pollutants and argue that these co-benefits offer strong local incentives for mitigation.

Factorization of air pollutant emissions: Projections versus observed trends in Europe

This paper revisits the emission scenarios of the European Commissions 2005 Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP) in light of todays knowledge. We review assumptions made in the past on the main drivers of emission changes, i.e., demographic trends, economic growth, changes in the energy intensity of GDP, fuel-switching, and application of dedicated emission control measures. Our analysis shows that for most of these drivers, actual trends have not matched initial expectations. Observed ammonia and sulfur emissions in European Union in 2010 were 10% to 20% lower than projected, while emissions of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter exceeded estimates by 8% to 15%. In general, a higher efficiency of dedicated emission controls compensated for a lower-than-expected decline in total energy consumption as well as a delay in the phase-out of coal. For 2020, updated projections anticipate lower sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions than those under the 2005 baseline, whereby the degree to which these emissions are lower depends on what assumptions are made for emission controls and new vehicle standards. Projected levels of particulates are about 10% higher, while smaller differences emerge for other pollutants. New emission projections suggest that environmental targets established by the TSAP for the protection of human health, eutrophication and forest acidification will not be met without additional measures.

Scenario analysis of strategies to control air pollution in Pakistan

This study presents an initial analysis of potential implications of the current economic development plans of Pakistan on local and regional air pollution and explores alternative approaches that could limit the envisaged deterioration of air quality. The study summarizes exogenous projections of energy use and application of emission control measures for sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter up to 2030 and discusses the resulting implications on air quality. Illustrative emission control scenarios are used to assess health benefits of additional measures and associated costs. Scenarios investigate the policy options of employing cleaner fuels and of applying end-of-pipe emission control measures.

Energy Policy, Air Quality, and Climate Mitigation in South Africa: The Case for Integrated Assessment

Background and significance: South Africa reports approximately 20,000 premature deaths due to air pollution annually. Policy in South Africa has typically addressed greenhouse gas emissions, energy supply, and air quality separately. Integrated assessment provides a framework in which policies related to these topics can be evaluated simultaneously. Methodology: The present study provides an overview of legal and policy documents and reviews available literature concerning existing energy, climate, and air quality policies in South Africa to highlight inconsistencies of different policy approaches and identify possible co-benefits. Previous applications of integrated assessment in South Africa are discussed as approaches to provide evidence-based decision support. Application/relevance to systems analysis: The analysis and results demonstrate that a complete analysis of the energy and industry sectors can identify inefficiencies and opportunities. The system was analysed through both a policy lens and a technical application of an integrated assessment model. Policy and/or practice implications: Multiple potential policy options have been identified for South Africa to meet future energy demand and reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Combining GHG mitigation policies with subsidies to encourage the use of electricity or liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for cooking is most promising to avoid trade-offs. Discussion and conclusion: The goal of this work is to provide an argument for assessing energy, air quality, and climate change policies in an integrated assessment framework. Examples of current policy inconsistencies have been presented and published work detailing policy options to attain defined climate-related goals discussed. Integrated assessment can help to identify co-benefits and is a useful tool to improve decisions in complex policy environments. It is therefore recommended that integrated assessment tools be used to gain useful information for decision-making concerning climate change and air quality policies.

The role of nuclear energy in the post-Kyoto carbon mitigation strategies

Policy scenarios examined in this paper provide insights into the long-term role that nuclear power could play in abating CO2 emissions. Impacts are quantified for a strict phase-out of nuclear generation capacities, and are contrasted with scenarios allowing for a nuclear technology breakthrough under a specific carbon-tax regime. The energy-related global CO2 emissions are reduced by nearly 50% relative to the baseline in 2050 in the carbon-tax scenario, allowing for policies in favour of nuclear energy. On the contrary, the emission-reduction levels are less ambitious for the same carbon tax when a worldwide phasing-out of nuclear power is adopted. The substantial increase in contribution of nuclear energy projected for the carbon mitigation does not represent an acute threat from the uranium resources scarcity point of view for the time horizon of analyses. Nevertheless, the cost of nuclear fuel supplies and waste disposal might increase significantly without adjustments in the technology used.

Interactions between global climate change strategies and local air pollution: lessons learnt from the expansion of the power sector in Brazil

This study examines the interactions between local air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions to assess potential synergies and trade-offs between local environmental pollution and climate policies, using the power generation sector in Brazil under different carbon scenarios up to 2050 as a case study. To this end, an integrated approach was developed, combining energy scenarios under different carbon mitigation targets and a local air pollution assessment model, tailored to the context of the Brazilian power sector. Results reveal that there are deep interactions between climate change mitigation and local air pollution abatement strategies. Increasing the diffusion of low-carbon technologies results in both mitigation of climate change and lower terrestrial acidification potential impacts, due to the rapid phase-out of fossil fuel power technologies. However, local air pollution indicators for particulate matter formation and human toxicity may rise in response to greenhouse gas emission mitigation constraints, indicating the existence of potential trade-offs. Some of these trade-offs can be offset by introducing available end-of-pipe pollution control measures reinforced by dedicated air quality policies.