Wolfgang Schöpp

Spatially Explicit Characterization of Acidifying and Eutrophying Air Pollution in Life‐Cycle Assessment

Simple models are often used to assess the potential impact of acidifying and eutrophying substances released during the life cycle of products. As fate, background depositions, and ecosystem sensitivity are not included in these models, environmental life-cycle assessment of products (LCA) may produce incorrect results for these impact categories. This paper outlines the spatially explicit regional air pollution information and simulation model (RAINSLCA), which was developed for the calculation of acidification and terrestrial eutrophication potentials of ammonia (NH3) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) air emissions and acidification potentials for sulfur dioxide (SO2) air emissions for Europe and a number of European regions, taking fate, background depositions and effects into account. Two impact definitions are explored in the calculations: (1) the marginal change in the hazard index of all ecosystems in Europe and (2) the marginal change in the hazard index of ecosystems in Europe where the critical load is actually exceeded. The inclusion of fate, background depositions, and ecosystem sensitivity results in a different ranking of substances compared to simpler model outcomes.

Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon

This paper presents the first comprehensive assessment of historical (1990-2010) global anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) emissions including consistent and harmonized calculation of mass-based size distribution (PM1, PM2.5, PM10) as well as primary carbonaceous aerosols including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). The estimates were 10 developed with the integrated assessment model GAINS, where sourceand region-specific technology characteristics are explicitly included. This assessment includes a number of previously unaccounted or often misallocated emission sources, i.e., kerosene lamps, gas flaring, diesel generators, trash burning; some of them were reported in the past for selected regions or in the context of a particular pollutant or sector but not included as part of a total estimate. Spatially, emissions were calculated for 170 source regions (as well as international shipping), presented for 25 global regions, and allocated to 0.5 o x 15 0.5 o longitude-latitude grids. No independent estimates of emissions from forest fires and savannah burning are provided and neither windblown dust nor unpaved roads emissions are included. We estimate that global emissions of PM have not changed significantly between 1990 and 2010, showing a strong decoupling from the global increase in energy consumption and consequently, CO2 emissions but there are significantly different regional trends, with a particularly strong increase in East Asia and Africa and a strong decline in Europe, North 20 America and Pacific. This in turn resulted in important changes in the spatial pattern of PM burden, e.g., European, North American, and Pacific contributions to global emissions dropped from nearly 30% in 1990 to well below 15% in 2010, while Asia’s contribution grew from just over 50% to nearly 2/3 of the global total in 2010. For all considered PM species, Asian sources represented over 60% of the global anthropogenic total, and residential combustion was the most important sector contributing about 60% for BC and OC, 45% for PM2.5 and less than 40% for PM10 where large combustion sources and 25 industrial processes are equally important. Global anthropogenic emissions of BC were estimated at about 6.6 and 7.2 Tg in 2000 and 2010, respectively, and represent about 15% of PM2.5 but for some sources reach nearly 50%, i.e., transport sector. Our global BC numbers are higher than previously published owing primarily to inclusion of new sources. This PM estimate fills the gap in emission data and emission source characterization required in air quality and climate modelling studies and health impact assessments at a regional and global level, as it includes both carbonaceous and non30 carbonaceous constituents of primary particulate matter emissions. The developed emission data set has been used in several Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., doi:10.5194/acp-2016-880, 2016 Manuscript under review for journal Atmos. Chem. Phys. Published: 20 October 2016 c

Comparison of the acidifying impact from emissions with different regional origin in life-cycle assessment

In current life-cycle impact assessment, little attention is paid to the spatial aspects of emissions: the place where an emission is released and the area and or target system on which the emission has its impact. This lack of differentiation affects the relevance of the assessed impact. This paper presents factors for Europe that relate the region of emission to the acidifying impact on its deposition area.

Sectoral marginal abatement cost curves: implications for mitigation pledges and air pollution co-benefits for Annex I countries

Using the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas–Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) model, we derived Annex I marginal abatement cost curves for the years 2020 and 2030 for three World Energy Outlook baseline scenarios (2007–2009) of the International Energy Agency. These cost curves are presented by country, by greenhouse gas and by sector. They are available for further inter-country comparisons in the GAINS Mitigation Efforts Calculator—a free online tool. We illustrate the influence of the baseline scenario on the shape of mitigation cost curves, and identify key low cost options as well as no-regret priority investment areas for the years 2010–2030. Finally, we show the co-effect of GHG mitigation on the emissions of local air pollutants and argue that these co-benefits offer strong local incentives for mitigation.

Estimating long-term population exposure to ozone in urban areas of Europe

Tropospheric ozone concentrations regarded as harmful for human health are frequently encountered in Central Europe in summertime. Although ozone formation generally results from precursors transported over long distances, in urban areas local effects, such as reactions due to nearby emission sources, play a major role in determining ozone concentrations. Europe-wide mapping and modeling of population exposure to high ozone concentrations is subject to many uncertainties, because small-scale phenomena in urban areas can significantly change ozone levels from those of the surroundings. Currently the integrated assessment modeling of European ozone control strategies is done utilizing the results of large-scale models intended for estimating the rural background ozone levels. This paper presents an initial study on how much local nitrogen oxide (NOx) concentrations can explain variations between large-scale ozone model results and urban ozone measurements, on one hand, and between urban and nearby rural measurements, on the other. The impact of urban NOx concentrations on ozone levels was derived from chemical equations describing the ozone balance. The study investigated the applicability of the method for improving the accuracy of modeled population exposure, which is needed for efficient control strategy development. The method was tested with NOx and ozone measurements from both urban and rural areas in Switzerland and with the ozone predictions of the large-scale photochemical model currently used in designing Europe-wide control strategies for ground-level ozone. The results suggest that urban NOx levels are a significant explanatory factor in differences between urban and nearby rural ozone concentrations and that the phenomenon could be satisfactorily represented with this kind of method. Further research efforts should comprise testing of the method in more locations and analyzing the performance of more widely applicable ways of deriving the initial parameters.

Cost-effective sulphur emission reduction under uncertainty

The problem of reducing SO2 emissions in Europe is considered. The costs of reduction are assumed to be uncertain and are modeled by a set of possible scenarios. A mean-variance model of the problem is formulated and a specialized computational procedure is developed. The approach is applied to the trans-boundary air pollution model with real-world data.

Integrated assessment of emission control scenarios, including the impact of tropospheric ozone

The RAINS (Regional Air Pollution INformation and Simulation) model was developed at IIASA as an integrated assessment tool to assist policy advisors in evaluating options for reducing acid rain. In recent years, the European implementation of this model has been used to support the negotiations on an updated, effect-based Sulphur Protocol under the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution. The development of future strategies for reducing the environmental damage caused by air pollutants requires a multi-pollutant, multi-effect approach. In this context, the RAINS model is being further developed to include ozone. This paper outlines the development of an integrated assessment model for tropospheric ozone, which combines information on the emissions of ozone precursors (NOx and VOCs), the available control technologies and abatement costs, the formation and transport of ozone and its environmental effects in Europe.

A simplified ozone model based on fuzzy rules generation

Abstract In this paper, simplified ozone models for potential use in integrated assessment are developed from the EMEP ozone model, which is a single-layer Lagrangian trajectory model. The simplification method uses fuzzy rule generation methodology to represent numerous results of the EMEP model as a response surface describing the source–receptor relationships between ozone precursor emissions and daily tropospheric ozone concentrations.

An emission inventory for the central European initiative 1988

Abstract This paper presents the first consistent inventory of emission of sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), particulate matter (PM), and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), for the countries co-operating in the Central European Initiative: Austria, Croatia, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Italy, Poland and Slovenia. The inventory is based on national and regional statistics as well as on information received from collaborating institutions. National data has been verified and converted into a common format, consistent with the database used by the European Environmental Agency and the European Community (the “CORINAIR” system). The inventory describes emissions in the year 1988, before the restructuring process began in former socialist economies. Data has been collected on the national level, for administrational units and for large point sources. The database on point sources contains specific information on 400 large plants in the region (e.g. capacity, commissioning year, fuel use, production, etc.). Total emissions of SO 2 in the CEI region in 1988 were 10.3 million tons, which accounts for 25% of total European SO 2 emissions. The highest emission densities (more than 100 t km −2 ) are found in Northern Bohemia (Czech Republic) and Upper Silesia (Poland). The overwhelming majority of SO 2 emissions (70%) originates from combustion of domestic (brown and hard) coal. Across the region, 60% of SO 2 is emitted from the large point sources identified in the study and over 60% of SO 2 emissions from public power plants in the CEI region is produced in plants older than 20 years.

Emission mitigation potentials and costs for non-CO2 greenhouse gases in Annex-I countries according to the GAINS model

The GAINS model allows for estimation of costs and potentials for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation by individual GHGs. In this article, the GAINS model is used to assess mitigation potentials for non-CO2 GHGs in 2020 for all countries covered in the Annex-I of the Kyoto protocol. Mitigation measures for methane, nitrous oxide or fluorinated gases and their costs are identified and mitigation potentials and costs are compared with other available studies. Differences in the structure of economic sectors between countries are important determinants for the differences in the respective contribution of non-CO2 GHGs. For some countries, a successful application of mitigation options clearly hampers the potential still available for future reductions. While a number of options exist to reduce CO2 even at negative costs (∼25% of the overall reduction potential), this is not the case for non-CO2 gases. Non-CO2 gases, however, provide considerable potential in the very low cost range (less than 10 €/t CO2-eq), in particular as they are affected by options to abate CO2 as well. In the range for very cheap options, non-CO2 gases cover about 36% of the reduction potential, a fraction which is decreasing for the higher cost range, to about 26% for a carbon price of 100 €/t CO2-eq. These figures have been calculated for the total of Annex-I countries, assuming a social discount rate of 4%.