Paul D. Anderson

Predicted‐no‐effect concentrations for the steroid estrogens estrone, 17β‐estradiol, estriol, and 17α‐ethinylestradiol

The authors derive predicted-no-effect concentrations (PNECs) for the steroid estrogens (estrone [E1], 17β-estradiol [E2], estriol [E3], and 17α-ethinylestradiol [EE2]) appropriate for use in risk assessment of aquatic organisms. In a previous study, they developed a PNEC of 0.35 ng/L for EE2 from a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) based on all available chronic aquatic toxicity data. The present study updates that PNEC using recently published data to derive a PNEC of 0.1 ng/L for EE2. For E2, fish were the most sensitive taxa, and chronic reproductive effects were the most sensitive endpoint. Using the SSD methodology, we derived a PNEC of 2 ng/L for E2. Insufficient data were available to construct an SSD for E1 or E3. Therefore, the authors used in vivo vitellogenin (VTG) induction studies to determine the relative potency of the steroid estrogens to induce VTG. Based on the relative differences between in vivo VTG induction, they derive PNECs of 6 and 60 ng/L for E1 and E3, respectively. Thus, for long-term exposures to steroid estrogens in surface water (i.e., >60 d), the PNECs are 6, 2, 60, and 0.1 ng/L for E1, E2, E3, and EE2, respectively. Higher PNECs are recommended for short-term (i.e., a few days or weeks) exposures.

Exposure assessment of 17α-ethinylestradiol in surface waters of the United States and Europe†

An evaluation of measured and predicted concentrations of 17-ethinylestradiol in surface waters of the United States and Europe was conducted to develop expected long-term exposure concentrations for this compound. Measured environmental concentrations (MECs) in surface waters were identified from the literature. Predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) were generated for European and U.S. watersheds using the GREAT-ER and PhATE models, respectively. The majority of MECs are nondetect and generally consistent with model PECs and conservative mass balance calculations. However, the highest MECs are not consistent with concentrations derived from conservative (worst-case) mass balance estimates or model PECs. A review of analytical methods suggests that tandem or high-resolution mass spectrometry methods with extract cleanup result in lower detection limits and lower reported concentrations consistent with model predictions and bounding estimates. Based on model results using PhATE and GREAT-ER, the 90th-percentile low-flow PECs in surface water are approximately 0.2 and 0.3 ng/L for the United States and Europe, respectively. These levels represent conservative estimates of long-term exposure that can be used for risk assessment purposes. Our analysis also indicates that average concentrations are one to two orders of magnitude lower than these 90th-percentile estimates. Higher reported concentrations (e.g., greater than the 99th-percentile PEC of approximately 1 ng/L) could result from methodological problems or unusual environmental circumstances; however, such concentrations are not representative of levels generally found in the environment, warrant special scrutiny, and are not appropriate for use in risk assessments of long-term exposures.

An Assessment of Potential Exposure and Risk from Estrogens in Drinking Water

Background Detection of estrogens in the environment has raised concerns in recent years because of their potential to affect both wildlife and humans. Objectives We compared exposures to prescribed and naturally occurring estrogens in drinking water to exposures to naturally occurring background levels of estrogens in the diet of children and adults and to four independently derived acceptable daily intakes (ADIs) to determine whether drinking water intakes are larger or smaller than dietary intake or ADIs. Methods We used the Pharmaceutical Assessment and Transport Evaluation (PhATE) model to predict concentrations of estrogens potentially present in drinking water. Predicted drinking water concentrations were combined with default water intake rates to estimate drinking water exposures. Predicted drinking water intakes were compared to dietary intakes and also to ADIs. We present comparisons for individual estrogens as well as combined estrogens. Results In the analysis we estimated that a child’s exposures to individual prescribed estrogens in drinking water are 730–480,000 times lower (depending upon estrogen type) than exposure to background levels of naturally occurring estrogens in milk. A child’s exposure to total estrogens in drinking water (prescribed and naturally occurring) is about 150 times lower than exposure from milk. Adult margins of exposure (MOEs) based on total dietary exposure are about 2 times smaller than those for children. Margins of safety (MOSs) for an adult’s exposure to total prescribed estrogens in drinking water vary from about 135 to > 17,000, depending on ADI. MOSs for exposure to total estrogens in drinking water are about 2 times lower than MOSs for prescribed estrogens. Depending on the ADI that is used, MOSs for young children range from 28 to 5,120 for total estrogens (including both prescribed and naturally occurring sources) in drinking water. Conclusions The consistently large MOEs and MOSs strongly suggest that prescribed and total estrogens that may potentially be present in drinking water in the United States are not causing adverse effects in U.S. residents, including sensitive subpopulations.

An Adaptive, Comprehensive Monitoring Strategy for Chemicals of Emerging Concern (CECs) in California's Aquatic Ecosystems

A scientific advisory panel was convened by the State of California to recommend monitoring for chemicals of emerging concern (CECs) in aquatic systems that receive discharge of municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent and stormwater runoff. The panel developed a risk-based screening framework that considered environmental sources and fate of CECs observed in receiving waters across the State. Using existing occurrence and risk threshold data in water, sediment, and biological tissue, the panel applied the framework to identify a priority list of CECs for initial monitoring in three representative receiving water scenarios. The initial screening list of 16 CECs identified by the panel included consumer and commercial chemicals, flame retardants, pesticides, pharmaceuticals and personal care products, and natural hormones. The panel designed an iterative, phased strategy with interpretive guidelines that direct and update management actions commensurate with potential risk identified using the risk-based framework and monitoring data. Because of the ever-changing nature of chemical use, technology, and management practices, the panel offered recommendations to improve CEC monitoring, including development of bioanalytical screening methods whose responses integrate exposure to complex mixtures and that can be linked to higher-order effects; development or refinement of models that predict the input, fate, and effects of future chemicals; and filling of key data gaps on CEC occurrence and toxicity. Finally, the panel stressed the need for adaptive management, allowing for future review of, and if warranted, modifications to the strategy to incorporate the latest science available to the water resources community.

Endocrine disruption due to estrogens derived from humans predicted to be low in the majority of U.S. surface waters

In an effort to assess the combined risk estrone (E1), 17β-estradiol (E2), 17α-ethinyl estradiol (EE2), and estriol (E3) pose to aquatic wildlife across United States watersheds, two sets of predicted-no-effect concentrations (PNECs) for significant reproductive effects in fish were compared to predicted environmental concentrations (PECs). One set of PNECs was developed for evaluation of effects following long-term exposures. A second set was derived for short-term exposures. Both sets of PNECs are expressed as a 17β-estradiol equivalent (E2-eq), with 2 and 5 ng/L being considered the most likely levels above which fish reproduction may be harmed following long-term and short-term exposures, respectively. A geographic information system-based water quality model, Pharmaceutical Assessment and Transport Evaluation (PhATE™), was used to compare these PNECs to mean and low flow concentrations of the steroid estrogens across 12 U.S. watersheds. These watersheds represent approximately 19% of the surface area of the 48 North American states, contain 40 million people, and include over 44,000 kilometers of rivers. This analysis determined that only 0.8% of the segments (less than 1.1% of kilometers) of these watersheds would have a mean flow E2-eq concentration exceeding the long-term PNEC of 2.0 ng/L; only 0.5% of the segments (less than 0.8% of kilometers) would have a critical low flow E2-eq exceeding the short-term PNEC of 5 ng/L. Those few river segments where the PNECs were exceeded were effluent dominated, being either headwater streams with a publicly owned treatment works (POTW), or flowing through a highly urbanized environment with one or several POTWs. These results suggest that aquatic species in most U.S. surface waters are not at risk from steroid estrogens that may be present as a result of human releases.

Reassessing the risks of Tamiflu use during a pandemic to the Lower Colorado River

We wish to highlight an error in the article “Potential Risks Associated with the Proposed Widespread Use of Tamiflu” (Singer et al. 2007) in which we predicted environmental concentrations of Tamiflu (influenza antiviral) in several catchments in the United States and the United Kingdom. An incorrect assumption was made in the hydrology of one of these catchments, the Lower Colorado River (LC).

Predicting concentrations of trace organic compounds in municipal wastewater treatment plant sludge and biosolids using the PhATE™ model.

This article presents the capability expansion of the PhATE™ (pharmaceutical assessment and transport evaluation) model to predict concentrations of trace organics in sludges and biosolids from municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). PhATE was originally developed as an empirical model to estimate potential concentrations of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) in US surface and drinking waters that could result from patient use of medicines. However, many compounds, including pharmaceuticals, are not completely transformed in WWTPs and remain in biosolids that may be applied to land as a soil amendment. This practice leads to concerns about potential exposures of people who may come into contact with amended soils and also about potential effects to plants and animals living in or contacting such soils. The model estimates the mass of API in WWTP influent based on the population served, the API per capita use, and the potential loss of the compound associated with human use (e.g., metabolism). The mass of API on the treated biosolids is then estimated based on partitioning to primary and secondary solids, potential loss due to biodegradation in secondary treatment (e.g., activated sludge), and potential loss during sludge treatment (e.g., aerobic digestion, anaerobic digestion, composting). Simulations using 2 surrogate compounds show that predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) generated by PhATE are in very good agreement with measured concentrations, i.e., well within 1 order of magnitude. Model simulations were then carried out for 18 APIs representing a broad range of chemical and use characteristics. These simulations yielded 4 categories of results: 1) PECs are in good agreement with measured data for 9 compounds with high analytical detection frequencies, 2) PECs are greater than measured data for 3 compounds with high analytical detection frequencies, possibly as a result of as yet unidentified depletion mechanisms, 3) PECs are less than analytical reporting limits for 5 compounds with low analytical detection frequencies, and 4) the PEC is greater than the analytical method reporting limit for 1 compound with a low analytical detection frequency, possibly again as a result of insufficient depletion data. Overall, these results demonstrate that PhATE has the potential to be a very useful tool in the evaluation of APIs in biosolids. Possible applications include: prioritizing APIs for assessment even in the absence of analytical methods; evaluating sludge processing scenarios to explore potential mitigation approaches; using in risk assessments; and developing realistic nationwide concentrations, because PECs can be represented as a cumulative probability distribution. Finally, comparison of PECs to measured concentrations can also be used to identify the need for fate studies of compounds of interest in biosolids.

Absorption adjustment factor (AAF) distributions for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHS)

Abstract In human health risk assessment, a correction factor is needed to account for differences between absorption in the dose‐response study and absorption likely to occur upon human exposure. This correction factor is defined as the absorption adjustment factor, or AAF. The AAF is used to adjust the human exposure (potential) dose to account for differences in bioavailability between laboratory vehicles and environmental matrices. AAFs are defined for oral and dermal risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soils. AAF distributions and point estimates are defined. Because there are very few studies that measure oral and dermal absorption of PAHs from soils in any species under any conditions, all available data from the principal studies were given equal weight in AAF derivation. The oral‐soil AAF distribution for all PAHs is a Beta4 distribution with the following characteristics: Beta4 (a=l, b=3, c=0.944964, d=0.0699) over the range of 0.07 to 1.00. The point estimate for the o...

Framework and Case Studies

This article presents an initial Comparative Dietary Risk Framework (referred to as the framework) that combines and compares the potential benefits and potential risks associated with eating contaminated fish. The results of this framework are preliminary, due to the multifactorial analysis involved. Thus, while the framework is a quantitative representation of the net risk (or benefit) associated with eating contaminated fish, it should be used to inform public health officials about the benefits and risk of eating contaminated fish and to investigate and compare various alternative fish protein sources, including perhaps other

Review of mathematical models for health risk assessment: V. chemical concentrations in the food chain

Abstract The health risk assessment of chemical emissions from industrial facilities requires the mathematical modeling of a variety of processes, including transport and fate of chemicals in and between various environmental media, population exposure to these chemicals, their associated doses, and health effects. Several models are presently available to address these different components of the health risk assessment. Existing models were reviewed and recommendations are provided for the selection of models suitable for screening and refined risk assessments. This article reviews mathematical models for estimating concentrations of chemicals in the food chain.