Paul Pearce-Kelly

The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people

Accumulating impacts Anthropogenic climate change is now in full swing, our global average temperature already having increased by 1°C from preindustrial levels. Many studies have documented individual impacts of the changing climate that are particular to species or regions, but individual impacts are accumulating and being amplified more broadly. Scheffers et al. review the set of impacts that have been observed across genes, species, and ecosystems to reveal a world already undergoing substantial change. Understanding the causes, consequences, and potential mitigation of these changes will be essential as we move forward into a warming world. Science, this issue p. 10.1126/science.aaf7671 BACKGROUND Climate change impacts have now been documented across every ecosystem on Earth, despite an average warming of only ~1°C so far. Here, we describe the full range and scale of climate change effects on global biodiversity that have been observed in natural systems. To do this, we identify a set of core ecological processes (32 in terrestrial and 31 each in marine and freshwater ecosystems) that underpin ecosystem functioning and support services to people. Of the 94 processes considered, 82% show evidence of impact from climate change in the peer-reviewed literature. Examples of observed impacts from meta-analyses and case studies go beyond well-established shifts in species ranges and changes to phenology and population dynamics to include disruptions that scale from the gene to the ecosystem. ADVANCES Species are undergoing evolutionary adaptation to temperature extremes, and climate change has substantial impacts on species physiology that include changes in tolerances to high temperatures, shifts in sex ratios in species with temperature-dependent sex determination, and increased metabolic costs of living in a warmer world. These physiological adjustments have observable impacts on morphology, with many species in both aquatic and terrestrial systems shrinking in body size because large surface-to-volume ratios are generally favored under warmer conditions. Other morphological changes include reductions in melanism to improve thermoregulation, and altered wing and bill length in birds. Broader-scale responses to climate change include changes in the phenology, abundance, and distribution of species. Temperate plants are budding and flowering earlier in spring and later in autumn. Comparable adjustments have been observed in marine and freshwater fish spawning events and in the timing of seasonal migrations of animals worldwide. Changes in the abundance and age structure of populations have also been observed, with widespread evidence of range expansion in warm-adapted species and range contraction in cold-adapted species. As a by-product of species redistributions, novel community interactions have emerged. Tropical and boreal species are increasingly incorporated into temperate and polar communities, respectively, and when possible, lowland species are increasingly assimilating into mountain communities. Multiplicative impacts from gene to community levels scale up to produce ecological regime shifts, in which one ecosystem state shifts to an alternative state. OUTLOOK The many observed impacts of climate change at different levels of biological organization point toward an increasingly unpredictable future for humans. Reduced genetic diversity in crops, inconsistent crop yields, decreased productivity in fisheries from reduced body size, and decreased fruit yields from fewer winter chill events threaten food security. Changes in the distribution of disease vectors alongside the emergence of novel pathogens and pests are a direct threat to human health as well as to crops, timber, and livestock resources. Humanity depends on intact, functioning ecosystems for a range of goods and services. Enhanced understanding of the observed impacts of climate change on core ecological processes is an essential first step to adapting to them and mitigating their influence on biodiversity and ecosystem service provision. Climate change impacts on ecological processes in marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems. Impacts can be measured on multiple processes at different levels of biological organization within ecosystems. In total, 82% of 94 ecological processes show evidence of being affected by climate change. Within levels of organization, the percentage of processes impacted varies from 60% for genetics to 100% for species distribution. Most ecological processes now show responses to anthropogenic climate change. In terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, species are changing genetically, physiologically, morphologically, and phenologically and are shifting their distributions, which affects food webs and results in new interactions. Disruptions scale from the gene to the ecosystem and have documented consequences for people, including unpredictable fisheries and crop yields, loss of genetic diversity in wild crop varieties, and increasing impacts of pests and diseases. In addition to the more easily observed changes, such as shifts in flowering phenology, we argue that many hidden dynamics, such as genetic changes, are also taking place. Understanding shifts in ecological processes can guide human adaptation strategies. In addition to reducing greenhouse gases, climate action and policy must therefore focus equally on strategies that safeguard biodiversity and ecosystems.

Zoos through the Lens of the IUCN Red List: A Global Metapopulation Approach to Support Conservation Breeding Programs

Given current extinction trends, the number of species requiring conservation breeding programs (CBPs) is likely to increase dramatically. To inform CBP policies for threatened terrestrial vertebrates, we evaluated the number and representation of threatened vertebrate species on the IUCN Red List held in the ISIS zoo network and estimated the complexity of their management as metapopulations. Our results show that 695 of the 3,955 (23%) terrestrial vertebrate species in ISIS zoos are threatened. Only two of the 59 taxonomic orders show a higher proportion of threatened species in ISIS zoos than would be expected if species were selected at random. In addition, for most taxa, the management of a zoo metapopulation of more than 250 individuals will require the coordination of a cluster of 11 to 24 ISIS zoos within a radius of 2,000 km. Thus, in the zoo network, the representation of species that may require CBPs is currently low and the spatial distribution of these zoo populations makes management difficult. Although the zoo community may have the will and the logistical potential to contribute to conservation actions, including CBPs, to do so will require greater collaboration between zoos and other institutions, alongside the development of international agreements that facilitate cross-border movement of zoo animals. To maximize the effectiveness of integrated conservation actions that include CBPs, it is fundamental that the non-zoo conservation community acknowledges and integrates the expertise and facilities of zoos where it can be helpful.

Prehistoric inter-archipelago trading of Polynesian tree snails leaves a conservation legacy

Inter-archipelago exchange networks were an important aspect of prehistoric Polynesian societies. We report here a novel genetic characterization of a prehistoric exchange network involving an endemic Pacific island tree snail, Partula hyalina. It occurs in the Society (Tahiti only), Austral and Southern Cook Islands. Our genetic data, based on museum, captive and wild-caught samples, establish Tahiti as the source island. The source lineage is polymorphic in shell coloration and contains a second nominal species, the dark-shelled Partula clara, in addition to the white-shelled P. hyalina. Prehistoric inter-island introductions were non-random: they involved white-shelled snails only and were exclusively inter-archipelago in scope. Partulid shells were commonly used in regional Polynesian jewellery, and we propose that the white-shelled P. hyalina, originally restricted to Tahiti, had aesthetic value throughout these archipelagoes. Demand within the Society Islands could be best met by trading dead shells, but a low rate of inter-archipelago exchange may have prompted the establishment of multiple founder populations in the Australs and Southern Cooks. The alien carnivorous land snail Euglandina rosea has recently devastated populations of all 61 endemic species of Society Island partulid snails. Southern Cooks and Australs P. hyalina now represent the only unscathed wild populations remaining of this once spectacular land snail radiation.

Moorean tree snail survival revisited: a multi-island genealogical perspective.

BackgroundThe mass extirpation of the island of Mooreas endemic partulid tree snail fauna, following the deliberate introduction of the alien predator Euglandina rosea, represents one of the highest profile conservation crises of the past thirty years. All of the islands partulids were thought to be extirpated by 1987, with five species persisting in zoos, but intensive field surveys have recently detected a number of surviving wild populations. We report here a mitochondrial (mt) phylogenetic estimate of Moorean partulid wild and captive lineage survival calibrated with a reference museum collection that pre-dates the predators introduction and that also includes a parallel dataset from the neighboring island of Tahiti.ResultsAlthough severe winnowing of Mooreas mt lineage diversity has occurred, seven of eight (six Partula; two Samoana) partulid tip clades remain extant. The extinct mt clade occurred predominantly in the P. suturalis species complex and it represented a major component of Mooreas endemic partulid treespace. Extant Moorean mt clades exhibited a complex spectrum of persistence on Moorea, in captivity, and (in the form of five phylogenetically distinct sister lineages) on Tahiti. Most notably, three Partula taxa, bearing two multi-island mt lineages, have survived decades of E. rosea predation on Moorea (P. taeniata) and in the valleys of Tahiti (P. hyalina and P. clara). Their differential persistence was correlated with intrinsic attributes, such as taxonomy and mt lineages, rather than with their respective within-island distribution patterns.ConclusionConservation efforts directed toward Moorean and Tahitian partulids have typically operated within a single island frame of reference, but our discovery of robust genealogical ties among survivors on both islands implies that a multi-island perspective is required. Understanding what genetic and/or ecological factors have enabled Partula taeniata, P. hyalina and P. clara to differentially survive long-term direct exposure to the predator may provide important clues toward developing a viable long term conservation plan for Society Island partulid tree snails.

Tahitian tree snail mitochondrial clades survived recent mass extirpation.

Oceanic islands frequently support endemic faunal radiations that are highly vulnerable to introduced predators [1]. This vulnerability is epitomized by the rapid extinction in the wild of all but five of 61 described Society Islands partulid tree snails [2], following the deliberate introduction of an alien biological control agent: the carnivorous snail Euglandina rosea[3]. Tahitis tree snail populations have been almost completely extirpated and three of the islands eight endemic Partula species are officially extinct, a fourth persisting only in captivity [2]. We report a molecular phylogenetic estimate of Tahitian Partula mitochondrial lineage survival calibrated with a 1970 reference museum collection that pre-dates the predators 1974 introduction to the island [4]. Although severe winnowing of lineage diversity has occurred, none of the five primary Tahitian Partula clades present in the museum samples is extinct. Targeted conservation measures, especially of montane refuge populations, may yet preserve a representative sub-sample of Tahitis endemic tree snail genetic diversity in the wild.

Experimental Release of Endemic Partula Species, Extinct in the Wild, into a Protected Area of Natural Habitat on Moorea

Extinction of tree snails of the genus Partula on Moorea, following introduction of the predatory snail Euglandina rosea, has challenged conservation biology during years of successive captive breeding of small rescued populations. An experimental release of three Partula species into a predator-proof patch of native forest on Moorea was designed to test effectiveness of physical and chemical methods of predator exclusion and to evaluate behavior of animals bred for up to six generations in highly artificial environments. At the close of the experimental release, there had been multiple incursions of E. rosea, and too few Partula spp. remained to assess effects of captive breeding on ecological responses. However, results demonstrated the effectiveness of the exclosure under ideal maintenance and monitoring. Captive breeding methods were validated by reproduction and growth to sexual maturity in the wild as well as retention of genetic variability in the form of persistent color polymorphism in one species.

Not completely lost: two partulid tree snail species persist on the highest peak of Raiatea, French Polynesia

The spectacular partulid tree snail fauna of the Society Islands has been almost completely extirpated in recent decades following the deliberate introduction of the alien carnivorous snail Euglandina rosea . The greatest loss has occurred on the island of Raiatea, French Polynesia, home to an estimated 34 species (including 33 single-island endemics), all of which have been deemed extirpated in the wild. However, we report here the February 2006 discovery of two surviving Raiatean partulid lineages on the upper slopes of Mount Tefatua, the highest peak on the island. They have been identified using morphological and molecular phylogenetic analyses, the latter approach employing available museum and captive reference samples. One population, at 750 m elevation, consisted of Samoana attenuata . It has a multi-island distribution within the archipelago and surviving populations persist also on Tahiti and Moorea. A second population, present just below the summit at 950 m, consisted of a previously unstudied morphospecies and it has been formally described as Partula meyeri . It is unclear if a stable altitudinal refuge from E. rosea predation exists on Mount Tefatua but the unexpected discovery of these two surviving montane populations raises the possibility of preserving some fraction of Raiateas endemic tree snail diversity in the wild.