Paul Pharoah

A comprehensive model for familial breast cancer incorporating BRCA1, BRCA2 and other genes

In computing the probability that a woman is a BRCA1 or BRCA2 carrier for genetic counselling purposes, it is important to allow for the fact that other breast cancer susceptibility genes may exist. We used data from both a population based series of breast cancer cases and high risk families in the UK, with information on BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation status, to investigate the genetic models that can best explain familial breast cancer outside BRCA1 and BRCA2 families. We also evaluated the evidence for risk modifiers in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. We estimated the simultaneous effects of BRCA1, BRCA2, a third hypothetical gene ‘BRCA3’, and a polygenic effect using segregation analysis. The hypergeometric polygenic model was used to approximate polygenic inheritance and the effect of risk modifiers. BRCA1 and BRCA2 could not explain all the observed familial clustering. The best fitting model for the residual familial breast cancer was the polygenic, although a model with a single recessive allele produced a similar fit. There was also significant evidence for a modifying effect of other genes on the risks of breast cancer in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. Under this model, the frequency of BRCA1 was estimated to be 0.051% (95% CI: 0.021–0.125%) and of BRCA2 0.068% (95% CI: 0.033–0.141%). The breast cancer risk by age 70 years, based on the average incidence over all modifiers was estimated to be 35.3% for BRCA1 and 50.3% for BRCA2. The corresponding ovarian cancer risks were 25.9% for BRCA1 and 9.1% for BRCA2. The findings suggest that several common, low penetrance genes with multiplicative effects on risk may account for the residual non-BRCA1/2 familial aggregation of breast cancer. The modifying effect may explain the previously reported differences between population based estimates for BRCA1/2 penetrance and estimates based on high-risk families.

The BOADICEA model of genetic susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancer

Several genes conferring susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancer, notably BRCA1 and BRCA2, have been identified. The majority of the familial aggregation of breast cancer is, however, not explained by these genes. We have previously derived, using segregation analysis, a susceptibility model (BOADICEA, Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm) in which susceptibility to these genes is explained by mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 together with a polygenic component reflecting the joint multiplicative effect of multiple genes of small effect on breast cancer risk. Here, we consider the predictions made by this model. The overall familial risks of breast cancer predicted by this model are close to those observed in epidemiological studies. The predicted prevalences of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations among unselected cases of breast and ovarian cancer are also consistent with observations from population-based studies. These predictions are closer to the observed values than those obtained using the Claus model and BRCAPRO. The predicted mutation probabilities and cancer risks in individuals with a family history (FH) can differ markedly from those predicted by other models. We conclude that this model provides a rational basis for risk assessment in individuals with a FH of breast or ovarian cancer.

A large-scale meta-analysis to refine colorectal cancer risk estimates associated with MUTYH variants

Background:Defective DNA repair has a causal role in hereditary colorectal cancer (CRC). Defects in the base excision repair gene MUTYH are responsible for MUTYH-associated polyposis and CRC predisposition as an autosomal recessive trait. Numerous reports have suggested MUTYH mono-allelic variants to be low penetrance risk alleles. We report a large collaborative meta-analysis to assess and refine CRC risk estimates associated with bi-allelic and mono-allelic MUTYH variants and investigate age and sex influence on risk.Methods:MUTYH genotype data were included from 20u2009565 cases and 15u2009524 controls. Three logistic regression models were tested: a crude model; adjusted for age and sex; adjusted for age, sex and study.Results:All three models produced very similar results. MUTYH bi-allelic carriers demonstrated a 28-fold increase in risk (95% confidence interval (CI): 6.95–115). Significant bi-allelic effects were also observed for G396D and Y179C/G396D compound heterozygotes and a marginal mono-allelic effect for variant Y179C (odds ratio (OR)=1.34; 95% CI: 1.00–1.80). A pooled meta-analysis of all published and unpublished datasets submitted showed bi-allelic effects for MUTYH, G396D and Y179C (OR=10.8, 95% CI: 5.02–23.2; OR=6.47, 95% CI: 2.33–18.0; OR=3.35, 95% CI: 1.14–9.89) and marginal mono-allelic effect for variants MUTYH (OR=1.16, 95% CI: 1.00–1.34) and Y179C alone (OR=1.34, 95% CI: 1.01–1.77).Conclusions:Overall, this large study refines estimates of disease risk associated with mono-allelic and bi-allelic MUTYH carriers.

Molecular characteristics of screen-detected vs symptomatic breast cancers and their impact on survival

Background:Several recent studies have shown that screen detection remains an independent prognostic factor after adjusting for disease stage at presentation. This study compares the molecular characteristics of screen-detected with symptomatic breast cancers to identify if differences in tumour biology may explain some of the survival benefit conferred by screen detection.Methods:A total of 1379 women (aged 50–70 years) with invasive breast cancer from a large population-based case–control study were included in the analysis. Individual patient data included tumour size, grade, lymph node status, adjuvant therapy, mammographic screening status and mortality. Immunohistochemistry was performed on tumour samples using 11 primary antibodies to define five molecular subtypes. The effect of screen detection compared with symptomatic diagnosis on survival was estimated after adjustment for grade, nodal status, Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) and the molecular markers.Results:Fifty-six per cent of the survival benefit associated with screen-detected breast cancer was accounted for by a shift in the NPI, a further 3–10% was explained by the biological variables and more than 30% of the effect remained unexplained.Conclusion:Currently known biomarkers remain limited in their ability to explain the heterogeneity of breast cancer fully. A more complete understanding of the biological profile of breast tumours will be necessary to assess the true impact of tumour biology on the improvement in survival seen with screen detection.

The CASP8 -652 6N del promoter polymorphism and breast cancer risk: a multicenter study

A recent study on an Asian population reported a six-nucleotide insertion-deletion polymorphism (-652 6N del) in the CASP8 promoter region to be strongly associated with a decreased risk of multiple types of cancer, including breast cancer (BC). Here, we investigate the effect of this deletion in four independent large European BC case-control studies, including data from a total of 7,753 cases and 7,921 controls. The combined per allele odds ratio (OR) was 0.97 (95% confidence interval (CI), 95% CIxa0=xa00.93–1.02). The present result indicates that the CASP8 -652 6N del variant has no significant effect on BC risk in Europeans.

Clinical Characteristics of Ovarian Cancer Classified by BRCA1, BRCA2, and RAD51C Status

We evaluated homologous recombination deficient (HRD) phenotypes in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) considering BRCA1, BRCA2, and RAD51C in a large well-annotated patient set. We evaluated EOC patients for germline deleterious mutations (n = 899), somatic mutations (n = 279) and epigenetic alterations (n = 482) in these genes using NGS and genome-wide methylation arrays. Deleterious germline mutations were identified in 32 (3.6%) patients for BRCA1, in 28 (3.1%) for BRCA2 and in 26 (2.9%) for RAD51C. Ten somatically sequenced patients had deleterious alterations, six (2.1%) in BRCA1 and four (1.4%) in BRCA2. Fifty two patients (10.8%) had methylated BRCA1 or RAD51C. HRD patients with germline or somatic alterations in any gene were more likely to be high grade serous, have an earlier diagnosis age and have ovarian and/or breast cancer family history. The HRD phenotype was most common in high grade serous EOC. Identification of EOC patients with an HRD phenotype may help tailor specific therapies.

Replication of Genetic Polymorphisms Reported to Be Associated with Taxane-Related Sensory Neuropathy in Patients with Early Breast Cancer Treated with Paclitaxel

Purpose: Associations between taxane-related sensory neuropathy (TRSN) and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) have previously been reported, but few have been replicated in large, independent validation studies. This study evaluates the association between previously investigated SNPs and TRSN, using genotype data from a study of chemotherapy-related toxicity in patients with breast cancer. Experimental Design: We investigated 73 SNPs in 50 genes for their contribution to TRSN risk, using genotype data from 1,303 European patients. TRSN was assessed using National Cancer Institute common toxicity criteria for adverse events classification. Unconditional logistic regression evaluated the association between each SNP and TRSN risk (primary analysis). Cox regression analysis assessed the association between each SNP and cumulative taxane dose causing the first reported moderate/severe TRSN (secondary analysis). The admixture likelihood (AML) test, which considers all SNPs with a prior probability of association with TRSN together, tested the hypothesis that certain SNPs are truly associated. Results: The AML test provided strong evidence for the association of some SNPs with TRSN (P = 0.023). The two most significantly associated SNPs were rs3213619(ABCB1) [OR = 0.47; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.28–0.79; P = 0.004] and rs9501929(TUBB2A) (OR = 1.80; 95% CI, 1.20–2.72; P = 0.005). A further 9 SNPs were significant at P-value ≤ 0.05. Conclusion: This is currently the largest study investigating SNPs associated with TRSN. We found strong evidence that SNPs within genes in taxane pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic pathways contribute to TRSN risk. However, a large proportion of the inter-individual variability in TRSN remains unexplained. Further validated results from GWAS will help to identify new pathways, genes, and SNPs involved in TRSN susceptibility. Clin Cancer Res; 20(9); 2466–75. ©2014 AACR.

Aurora kinase A outperforms Ki67 as a prognostic marker in ER-positive breast cancer.

Background:Proliferation has emerged as a major prognostic factor in luminal breast cancer. The immunohistochemical (IHC) proliferation marker Ki67 has been most extensively investigated but has not gained widespread clinical acceptance.Methods:We have conducted a head-to-head comparison of a panel of proliferation markers, including Ki67. Our aim was to establish the marker of the greatest prognostic utility. Tumour samples from 3093 women with breast cancer were constructed as tissue microarrays. We used IHC to detect expression of mini-chromosome maintenance protein 2, Ki67, aurora kinase A (AURKA), polo-like kinase 1, geminin and phospho-histone H3. We used a Cox proportional-hazards model to investigate the association with 10-year breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS). Missing values were resolved using multiple imputation.Results:The prognostic significance of proliferation was limited to oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. Aurora kinase A emerged as the marker of the greatest prognostic significance in a multivariate model adjusted for the standard clinical and molecular covariates (hazard ratio 1.3; 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.5; P=0.005), outperforming all other markers including Ki67.Conclusion:Aurora kinase A outperforms other proliferation markers as an independent predictor of BCSS in ER-positive breast cancer. It has the potential for use in routine clinical practice.

Common variants in mismatch repair genes and risk of colorectal cancer.

Background and aim: The mismatch repair (MMR) genes are in charge of maintaining genomic integrity. Mutations in the MMR genes are at the origin of a familial form of colorectal cancer (CRC). This syndrome accounts for only a small proportion of the excess familial risk of CRC. The characteristics of the alleles that account for the remainder of cases are unknown. To assess the putative associations between common variants in MMR genes and CRC, we performed a genetic case–control study using a single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) tagging approach. Patients and methods: A total of 2299 cases and 2284 unrelated controls were genotyped for 68 tagging SNPs in seven MMR genes (MLH1, MLH3, MSH2, MSH3, MSH6, PMS1 and PMS2). Genotype frequencies were measured in cases and controls and analysed using univariate analysis. Haplotypes were constructed and analysed using logistic regression. We also carried out a two-locus interaction analysis and a global test analysis. Results: Genotype frequencies were found to be marginally different in cases and controls for MSH3 rs26279 with a rare homozygote ORu200a=u200a1.31 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05 to 1.62], ptrendu200a=u200a0.04. We found a rare MLH1 (frequency <5%) haplotype, increasing the risk of colorectal cancer: (ORu200a=u200a9.76; 95% CI, 1.25 to 76.29; pu200a=u200a0.03). The two-locus interaction analysis has exhibited signs of interaction between SNPs located in genes MSH6 and MSH2. Global testing has showed no evidence of interaction. Conclusion: It is unlikely that common variants in MMR genes contribute significantly to colorectal cancer.

Association of a Common AKAP9 Variant With Breast Cancer Risk: A Collaborative Analysis

Data from several studies have suggested that polymorphisms in A-kinase anchoring proteins (AKAPs), which are key components of signal transduction, contribute to carcinogenesis. To evaluate the impact of AKAP variants on breast cancer risk, we genotyped six nonsynonymous single-nucleotide polymorphisms that were predicted to be deleterious and found two (M463I, 1389G>T and N2792S, 8375A>G) to be associated with an allele dose-dependent increase in risk of familial breast cancer in a German population. We extended the analysis of AKAP9 M463I, which is in strong linkage disequilibrium with AKAP9 N2792S, to 9523 breast cancer patients and 13770 healthy control subjects from seven independent European and Australian breast cancer studies. All statistical tests were two-sided. The collaborative analysis confirmed the association of M463I with increased breast cancer risk. Among all breast cancer patients, the combined adjusted odds ratio (OR) of breast cancer for individuals homozygous for the rare allele TT (frequency = 0.19) compared with GG homozygotes was 1.17 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.08 to 1.27, P = .0003), and the OR for TT homozygotes plus GT heterozygotes compared with GG homozygotes was 1.10 (95% CI = 1.04 to 1.17, P = .001). Among the combined subset of 2795 familial breast cancer patients, the respective ORs were 1.27 (95% CI = 1.12 to 1.45, P = .0003) and 1.16 (95% CI = 1.06 to 1.27, P = .001).